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2017 Montana Special Election: GOP Seat In Danger?

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2017 Montana Special Election US House

Before there is a much-anticipated runoff in Georgia, the 2017 Montana special election will gauge public sentiment first.

They say all politics are local, but elections can get nationalized. It’s not as much as in Georgia, but the Montana US House race is getting there. After all, the resigned incumbent, Ryan Zinke (R), joined the Trump administration.

Montana is considered to be a red state on the presidential level, but Big Sky Country has more than flirted with electing Democrats over the years. Do the Republicans have a legitimate worry of losing this seat on May 25?

2017 Montana Special Election: The Polls

Every election comes down to turnout. Opinion polls are be best thing we have prior to a vote to pin down what will happen. In this case, the numbers are trending in a Democratic direction. Republican candidate Greg Gianforte has been ahead for the most part, though his lead is shrinking. Democratic candidate Rob Quist has held steady in the high 30s, but an increasing number of support for third-party candidates makes it more interesting.

The firm that has polled this race the most is Gravis Marketing, which most recently had Gianforte eight ahead. A Democratic poll for MajorityPAC has the Republican up six.

2017 Montana Special Election: The Bottom Line

Word is that the Republicans are pumping money into Montana for ad buys. The Democrats have not gone all-in trying to win this seat, but Quist has apparently raised $5 million. That might also disprove that this race hasn’t become nationalized.

One might expect that the Democrats are more focused on Georgia, which has a real possibility of flipping. For them to take this seat without a coordinated effort would be construed by political pundits as devastating for Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the numbers available to us now suggest that the Democrats won’t. This is not to discount the possibility, as Gianforte has not run away with it. A Quist victory would, however, be a surprise.

It has been over 20 years since this district, the only one in Montana, elected a Democrat.

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