The 2019 Alberta provincial election could see another change in government in Edmonton.
Progressive Conservatives governed Alberta for 44 years uninterrupted, but a combination of infighting on the right and a mood for change took out the government in 2015. Rachel Notley led the New Democratic Party to their first-ever election victory in Alberta, shocking political observers with an NDP majority government in Canada’s most “small-c” conservative province.
A lot has changed since Notley came to power four years ago. The Progressive Conservatives and their right-wing rivals, the Wildrose Party, merged into the United Conservative Party. Former federal MP Jason Kenney was elected its leader. Alberta’s economy has had some hiccups. And, finally, as one might expect, one conservative party is more effective than two. The UCP has held substantial leads in the opinion polls as the right is no longer splitting its vote.
Does this spell the end of the first-term NDP government, or will Rachel Notley shock Canadian politics again?
There are 87 ridings across Alberta, and 44 seats are needed for a majority. As the election draws near, we will predict each and every riding in the province and make our estimates for who will win the 2019 Alberta provincial election.
When Is The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election?
The date of the election was April 16, 2019.
Party Leaders For The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election
| Rachel Notley MLA (New Democratic, Premier) |
| Jason Kenney MLA (United Conservative, Leader of the Opposition) |
| Stephen Mandel (Alberta Party) |
| David Khan (Liberal) |
| Derek Fildebrandt MLA (Freedom Conservative) |
| Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes (Green) |
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Vote Partisan Breakdown
| New Democratic: 52 seats |
| United Conservative: 25 seats |
| Alberta Party: 3 seats |
| Independent: 3 seats |
| Liberal: 1 seat |
| Freedom Conservative: 1 seat |
| Progressive Conservative: 1 seat |
| Vacant: 1 seat |
| Government Majority: 18 |
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Results
Alberta Provincial Election Maps
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Results Analysis
That the UCP would win was not in doubt. As we said several times, this election was lost for the NDP on the day the UCP came into being.
One thing is clear: many polls — in fact, almost all of them — underestimated the size of the UCP victory. In so doing, they greatly overestimated the NDP, which is why the map turned out a little bluer than suspected. We were expecting a race in which the UCP won by maybe about ten points or so, but they won by 23. Not only did the NDP not hold their vote together from last time, but they dropped eight percent overall. The UCP did three points better than the PC and Wildrose combined in 2015.
Meanwhile, the Alberta Party is hurting while the Liberal Party is dead on the provincial level. David Khan was a spectacular bust in Calgary-Mountain View, coming in a distant fourth. The NDP has replaced them as the party of the left in the province. Otherwise, Stephen Mandel did alright in Edmonton-McClung but had no shot at winning for the Alberta Party. Greg Clark losing decisively for the AP in Calgary-Elbow was a body blow.
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Overall Prediction
High-Low Seat Ranges
Northern Alberta
| Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock |
|---|
| Merged UCP/NDP Riding |
| Prediction: UCP Win |
| Actual: UCP Win |
| Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul |
| David Hanson (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Central Peace-Notley |
| Margaret McCuaig-Boyd (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche |
| Laila Goodridge (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo |
| Tany Yao (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Grande Prairie |
| Todd Loewen (UCP) – Running in Central Peace-Notley |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Grande Prairie-Wapiti |
| Wayne Drysdale (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Lesser Slave Lake |
| Danielle Larivee (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Peace River |
| Debbie Jabbour (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
Central Alberta
| Camrose |
|---|
| Wes Taylor (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Drayton Valley-Devon |
| Mark Smith (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Drumheller-Stettler |
| Rick Strankman (Ind) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Innisfail-Sylvan Lake |
| Devin Dreeshen (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland |
| Oneil Carlier (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Lacombe-Ponoka |
| Ron Orr (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin |
| Bruce Hinkley (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Red Deer-North |
| Kim Schreiner (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Red Deer-South |
| Barb Miller (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre |
| Jason Nixon (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright |
| Richard Starke (IPC) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind PC |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind PC |
| West Yellowhead |
| Eric Rosendahl (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
Southern Alberta
| Brooks-Medicine Hat |
|---|
| Merged NDP/FCP Riding |
| Prediction: UCP Win |
| Actual: UCP Win |
| Cardston-Siksika |
| Dave Schneider (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Cypress-Medicine Hat |
| Drew Barnes (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Lethbridge-East |
| Maria Fitzpatrick (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Lethbridge-West |
| Shannon Phillips (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Livingstone-Macleod |
| Pat Stier (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Taber-Warner |
| Grant Hunter (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
Calgary Region
| Airdrie-Cochrane |
|---|
| New Riding |
| Prediction: UCP Win |
| Actual: UCP Win |
| Airdrie-East |
| Angela Pitt (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Banff-Kananaskis |
| Cam Westhead (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Acadia |
| Brandy Payne (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Beddington |
| Karen MacPherson (AP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from AP |
| Calgary-Bow |
| Deborah Drever (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Buffalo |
| Kathleen Ganley (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Mountain View |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Calgary-Cross |
| Ricardo Miranda (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Currie |
| Brian Malkinson (NDP) |
| NDP Hold |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-East |
| Robyn Luff (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Calgary-Edgemont |
| Michael Connolly (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Elbow |
| Greg Clark (AP) |
| Prediction: AP Hold |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from AP |
| Calgary-Falconridge |
| Prab Gill (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind |
| Calgary-Fish Creek |
| Richard Gotfried (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Calgary-Foothills |
| Prasad Panda (UCP) – Running in Calgary-Edgemont |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Calgary-Glenmore |
| Anam Kazim (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Hays |
| Ric McIver (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Calgary-Klein |
| Craig Coolahan (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Calgary-Lougheed |
| Jason Kenney (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Calgary-McCall |
| Irfan Sabir (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Calgary-Mountain View |
| David Swann (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Lib Hold |
| Actual: NDP GAIN from Lib |
| Calgary-North |
| Jamie Kleinsteuber (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-North East |
| New Riding |
| Prediction: UCP Win |
| Actual: UCP Win |
| Calgary-North West |
| Sandra Jansen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Peigan |
| Joe Ceci (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Buffalo |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-Shaw |
| Graham Sucha (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Calgary-South East |
| Rick Fraser (AP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from AP |
| Calgary-Varsity |
| Vacant – Formerly NDP |
| NDP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Win |
| Calgary-West |
| Mike Ellis (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Chestermere-Strathmore |
| Leela Aheer (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Highwood |
| Wayne Anderson (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
| Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills |
| Nathan Cooper (UCP) |
| Prediction: UCP Hold |
| Actual: UCP Hold |
Edmonton Region
| Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview |
|---|
| Deron Bilous (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Castle Downs |
| Nicole Goehring (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-City Centre |
| David Shepherd (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Decore |
| Chris Nielsen (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Ellerslie |
| Rod Loyola (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Glenora |
| Sarah Hoffman (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Gold Bar |
| Marlin Schmidt (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood |
| Brian Mason (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Manning |
| Heather Sweet (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-McClung |
| Lorne Dach (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Meadows |
| Denise Woollard (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Mill Woods |
| Christina Gray (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-North West |
| David Eggen (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Riverview |
| Lori Sigurdson (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Rutherford |
| Richard Feehan (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-South |
| New Riding |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-South West |
| Thomas Dang (NDP) – Running in Edmonton-South |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Edmonton-Strathcona |
| Rachel Notley (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-West Henday |
| Jon Carson (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Edmonton-Whitemud |
| Bob Turner (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville |
| Jessica Littlewood (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Leduc-Beaumont |
| Shaye Anderson (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Morinville-St. Albert |
| New Riding |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Sherwood Park |
| Annie McKitrick (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Spruce Grove-Stony Plain |
| Erin Babcock (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| St. Albert |
| Marie Renaud (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: NDP Hold |
| Strathcona-Sherwood Park |
| Estefania Cortes-Vargas (NDP) |
| Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP |
| Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP |
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, April 14, 2019
Our final prediction of the Alberta election campaign is a sizable UCP majority. They have come back up by a seat overall, to near 60. This would send the NDP government to the opposition benches with about half of their present seat total.
This campaign was always going to be difficult for the NDP. There is now one conservative party in Canada’s most right-leaning province. Rachel Notley had the deck stacked against her at that point, and was in a position where her party had to do better than when she won a majority four years ago just to have a chance. The good news for her is that she appears to have held together enough of the NDP vote in Edmonton to keep that city orange, which will make the overall vote count look respectable. Where it will go wrong is in Calgary and the “Rest of Alberta.”
There are likely to be few or no NDP MLAs in rural Alberta after April 16. Our “Rest of Alberta” is 26 UCP and just two for the NDP. On a very good night, the NDP might end up with four or five, but might also be down to just one. Rural NDP members that went up the middle on split votes in 2015 will lose their seats.
However, this election will be won or lost in Calgary. Our Calgary forecast is 26 UCP and the rest six, four of those going to the NDP. We have the UCP ahead about 16 points here based on an examination of recent polling, which will be enough to turn most of the city from orange to blue. The NDP won’t be totally wiped out here, but could come close. Seven seats is probably the most they can wish for here, but with 32 in the city and its immediate surrounding area, that’s not good enough.
Edmonton is the NDP’s forthcoming bright spot. We have Team Notley coming in with 20 seats in this region compared to just seven for the UCP. All of those will be on the fringes of the city.
Notley’s team fought hard in the campaign, with energetic campaign stops and a beneficial social media output, but beating the leading UCP is a tough ask. This is in spite of the fact that Jason Kenney, Alberta’s likely premier-in-waiting has had a difficult time with allegations of voter fraud surrounding his leadership race. (Reference: CTV News) That has not derailed the UCP, who still have enough of a lead outside of Edmonton to take government.
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, April 5, 2019
Our outlook for the UCP has dropped, but only to the tune of five seats flipping back to the NDP. We can’t discount the possibility that the UCP is going to win a massive majority if only because of unity on the right, but the NDP has caught up in the last week or two. Or, at least, they are holding their own. The government remains on track for a near-wipeout in rural Alberta — they are not going to win seats in which the combined PC-Wildrose vote was upwards of 60 percent last time. Where the UCP has to go over the top for a majority is Calgary. Opinion polls have been all over, but it appears the UCP vote could be a bit worse than last time’s PC-Wildrose vote. Yes, the UCP will do just fine here and go over the top, but by how much?
The NDP is shoring up in Edmonton; with steadying poll numbers province-wide, Edmonton is the likeliest place in which their vote will concentrate. The UCP’s successes in the area, if any, will be on the outskirts.
We could have gone much harder on the UCP given that the NDP, depending on who you ask, is keeping pace with their 2015 vote share. They still have the advantage, but a more conservative approach is warranted now given the tilt of the province (of course). Another good week for the NDP could bump their numbers higher, but at this stage, their winning a majority isn’t appearing possible. The NDP’s best-case scenario seems to be a seat count somewhere in the 30s: a UCP majority, but not necessarily a landslide.
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, March 20, 2019
Our first wave of predictions has hit. It is specifically a blue wave washing over Alberta and taking the NDP out of power following a single term.
When the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose merged, the NDP were behind the proverbial 8-ball. The two parties’ combined vote was about 11 points more than the NDP. Now, who is to say the UCP will hold all that vote together, but even if the NDP improves upon their 41 percent from 2015 (unlikely, but not impossible), the UCP still wins.
In fact, they are nearing an extinction-level event outside of Edmonton and Calgary. There are a number of “Rest of Alberta” seats in which the NDP squeaked out a win but the combined conservative vote was massive. Those seats are gone for the NDP. Even in Calgary, the same phenomenon will be repeated in a number of ridings.
The challenge for the NDP is that they have to increase their vote share beyond what they got in an historic election victory. Mind you, this is in Canada’s most conservative province, but one in which voters suffered fatigue with a decades-long government. The NDP government is on defense and have been since the day the UCP was born.
Edmonton is the NDP’s best hope to save the furniture so to speak. They will remain the dominant party there, but save for a miracle, the province map overall will be a lot less orange in April.
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Prediction Lowdown
The new United Conservative Party will soon fight its first election. It enters said election campaign as the favorite to send the NDP packing after just one term in office.
Recent opinion polling has shown a consistent UCP lead in excess of ten points. Whereas the two conservative parties split the vote last time, that is not going to be the case this time, so to start, every NDP seat outside of Edmonton and Calgary is in danger. It is possible they may keep a handful of them, though somewhat unlikely.
What we will watch is the UCP advance into the two big cities. Edmonton was a sweep for the NDP last time, so it will be the hardest wall to crack. The UCP is much more likely to make significant inroads in Calgary, and if so, it could deliver them the election.
2019 Alberta Provincial Election Links
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