2019 Alberta Provincial Election Predictions & Election Results

2019 Alberta Provincial Election

The 2019 Alberta provincial election could see another change in government in Edmonton.

Progressive Conservatives governed Alberta for 44 years uninterrupted, but a combination of infighting on the right and a mood for change took out the government in 2015. Rachel Notley led the New Democratic Party to their first-ever election victory in Alberta, shocking political observers with an NDP majority government in Canada’s most “small-c” conservative province.

A lot has changed since Notley came to power four years ago. The Progressive Conservatives and their right-wing rivals, the Wildrose Party, merged into the United Conservative Party. Former federal MP Jason Kenney was elected its leader. Alberta’s economy has had some hiccups. And, finally, as one might expect, one conservative party is more effective than two. The UCP has held substantial leads in the opinion polls as the right is no longer splitting its vote.

Does this spell the end of the first-term NDP government, or will Rachel Notley shock Canadian politics again?

There are 87 ridings across Alberta, and 44 seats are needed for a majority. As the election draws near, we will predict each and every riding in the province and make our estimates for who will win the 2019 Alberta provincial election.

When Is The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election?

The date of the election is April 16, 2019.

Party Leaders For The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election

Rachel Notley MLA (New Democratic, Premier)
Jason Kenney MLA (United Conservative, Leader of the Opposition)
Stephen Mandel (Alberta Party)
David Khan (Liberal)
Derek Fildebrandt MLA (Freedom Conservative)
Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes (Green)

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Vote Partisan Breakdown

New Democratic: 52 seats
United Conservative: 25 seats
Alberta Party: 3 seats
Independent: 3 seats
Liberal: 1 seat
Freedom Conservative: 1 seat
Progressive Conservative: 1 seat
Vacant: 1 seat
Government Majority: 18

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Overall Prediction

2019 Alberta Election Prediction - 3-20-19

Northern Alberta

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock
Merged UCP/NDP Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul
David Hanson (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Central Peace-Notley
Margaret McCuaig-Boyd (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
Tany Yao (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Grande Prairie
Todd Loewen (UCP) – Running in Central Peace-Notley
Prediction: UCP Hold
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
Wayne Drysdale (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Lesser Slave Lake
Danielle Larivee (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Peace River
Debbie Jabbour (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP

Central Alberta

Camrose
Wes Taylor (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Drayton Valley-Devon
Mark Smith (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Drumheller-Stettler
Rick Strankman (Ind)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Devin Dreeshen (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland
Oneil Carlier (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Lacombe-Ponoka
Ron Orr (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
Bruce Hinkley (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Red Deer-North
Kim Schreiner (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Red Deer-South
Barb Miller (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
Jason Nixon (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright
Richard Starke (IPC) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind PC
West Yellowhead
Eric Rosendahl (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP

Southern Alberta

Brooks-Medicine Hat
Merged NDP/FCP Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Cardston-Siksika
Dave Schneider (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Cypress-Medicine Hat
Drew Barnes (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Lethbridge-East
Maria Fitzpatrick (NDP)
NDP Hold
Lethbridge-West
Shannon Phillips (NDP)
NDP Hold
Livingstone-Macleod
Pat Stier (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Taber-Warner
Grant Hunter (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold

Calgary Region

Airdrie-Cochrane
New Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Airdrie-East
Angela Pitt (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Banff-Kananaskis
Cam Westhead (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Acadia
Brandy Payne (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Beddington
Karen MacPherson (AP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP
Calgary-Bow
Deborah Drever (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Buffalo
Kathleen Ganley (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Mountain View
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Cross
Ricardo Miranda (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Currie
Brian Malkinson (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-East
Robyn Luff (Ind)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Calgary-Edgemont
Michael Connolly (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Elbow
Greg Clark (AP)
Prediction: AP Hold
Calgary-Falconridge
Prab Gill (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Calgary-Fish Creek
Richard Gotfried (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Calgary-Foothills
Prasad Panda (UCP) – Running in Calgary-Edgemont
Prediction: UCP Hold
Calgary-Glenmore
Anam Kazim (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Hays
Ric McIver (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Calgary-Klein
Craig Coolahan (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Lougheed
Jason Kenney (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Calgary-McCall
Irfan Sabir (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Mountain View
David Swann (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Lib Hold
Calgary-North
Jamie Kleinsteuber (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-North East
New Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Calgary-North West
Sandra Jansen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Peigan
Joe Ceci (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Buffalo
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Shaw
Graham Sucha (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-South East
Rick Fraser (AP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP
Calgary-Varsity
Vacant – Formerly NDP
NDP Hold
Calgary-West
Mike Ellis (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Chestermere-Strathmore
Leela Aheer (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Highwood
Wayne Anderson (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Nathan Cooper (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold

Edmonton Region

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
Deron Bilous (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Castle Downs
Nicole Goehring (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-City Centre
David Shepherd (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Decore
Chris Nielsen (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Rod Loyola (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Glenora
Sarah Hoffman (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Gold Bar
Marlin Schmidt (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
Brian Mason (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Manning
Heather Sweet (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-McClung
Lorne Dach (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Edmonton-Meadows
Denise Woollard (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Mill Woods
Christina Gray (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-North West
David Eggen (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Riverview
Lori Sigurdson (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Rutherford
Richard Feehan (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-South
New Riding
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Edmonton-South West
Thomas Dang (NDP) – Running in Edmonton-South
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Edmonton-Strathcona
Rachel Notley (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-West Henday
Jon Carson (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Whitemud
Bob Turner (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
Jessica Littlewood (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Leduc-Beaumont
Shaye Anderson (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Morinville-St. Albert
New Riding
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Sherwood Park
Annie McKitrick (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
Erin Babcock (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
St. Albert
Marie Renaud (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
Estefania Cortes-Vargas (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, March 20, 2019

Our first wave of predictions has hit. It is specifically a blue wave washing over Alberta and taking the NDP out of power following a single term.

When the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose merged, the NDP were behind the proverbial 8-ball. The two parties’ combined vote was about 11 points more than the NDP. Now, who is to say the UCP will hold all that vote together, but even if the NDP improves upon their 41 percent from 2015 (unlikely, but not impossible), the UCP still wins.

In fact, they are nearing an extinction-level event outside of Edmonton and Calgary. There are a number of “Rest of Alberta” seats in which the NDP squeaked out a win but the combined conservative vote was massive. Those seats are gone for the NDP. Even in Calgary, the same phenomenon will be repeated in a number of ridings.

The challenge for the NDP is that they have to increase their vote share beyond what they got in an historic election victory. Mind you, this is in Canada’s most conservative province, but one in which voters suffered fatigue with a decades-long government. The NDP government is on defense and have been since the day the UCP was born.

Edmonton is the NDP’s best hope to save the furniture so to speak. They will remain the dominant party there, but save for a miracle, the province map overall will be a lot less orange in April.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Prediction Lowdown

The new United Conservative Party will soon fight its first election. It enters said election campaign as the favorite to send the NDP packing after just one term in office.

Recent opinion polling has shown a consistent UCP lead in excess of ten points. Whereas the two conservative parties split the vote last time, that is not going to be the case this time, so to start, every NDP seat outside of Edmonton and Calgary is in danger. It is possible they may keep a handful of them, though somewhat unlikely.

What we will watch is the UCP advance into the two big cities. Edmonton was a sweep for the NDP last time, so it will be the hardest wall to crack. The UCP is much more likely to make significant inroads in Calgary, and if so, it could deliver them the election.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Links

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