2019 Alberta Provincial Election Predictions & Election Results

The 2019 Alberta provincial election could see another change in government in Edmonton.

Progressive Conservatives governed Alberta for 44 years uninterrupted, but a combination of infighting on the right and a mood for change took out the government in 2015. Rachel Notley led the New Democratic Party to their first-ever election victory in Alberta, shocking political observers with an NDP majority government in Canada’s most “small-c” conservative province.

A lot has changed since Notley came to power four years ago. The Progressive Conservatives and their right-wing rivals, the Wildrose Party, merged into the United Conservative Party. Former federal MP Jason Kenney was elected its leader. Alberta’s economy has had some hiccups. And, finally, as one might expect, one conservative party is more effective than two. The UCP has held substantial leads in the opinion polls as the right is no longer splitting its vote.

Does this spell the end of the first-term NDP government, or will Rachel Notley shock Canadian politics again?

There are 87 ridings across Alberta, and 44 seats are needed for a majority. As the election draws near, we will predict each and every riding in the province and make our estimates for who will win the 2019 Alberta provincial election.

When Is The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election?

The date of the election is April 16, 2019.

Party Leaders For The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Vote Partisan Breakdown

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Overall Prediction

Northern Alberta

Central Alberta

Southern Alberta

Calgary Region

Edmonton Region

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, March 20, 2019

Our first wave of predictions has hit. It is specifically a blue wave washing over Alberta and taking the NDP out of power following a single term.

When the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose merged, the NDP were behind the proverbial 8-ball. The two parties’ combined vote was about 11 points more than the NDP. Now, who is to say the UCP will hold all that vote together, but even if the NDP improves upon their 41 percent from 2015 (unlikely, but not impossible), the UCP still wins.

In fact, they are nearing an extinction-level event outside of Edmonton and Calgary. There are a number of “Rest of Alberta” seats in which the NDP squeaked out a win but the combined conservative vote was massive. Those seats are gone for the NDP. Even in Calgary, the same phenomenon will be repeated in a number of ridings.

The challenge for the NDP is that they have to increase their vote share beyond what they got in an historic election victory. Mind you, this is in Canada’s most conservative province, but one in which voters suffered fatigue with a decades-long government. The NDP government is on defense and have been since the day the UCP was born.

Edmonton is the NDP’s best hope to save the furniture so to speak. They will remain the dominant party there, but save for a miracle, the province map overall will be a lot less orange in April.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Prediction Lowdown

The new United Conservative Party will soon fight its first election. It enters said election campaign as the favorite to send the NDP packing after just one term in office.

Recent opinion polling has shown a consistent UCP lead in excess of ten points. Whereas the two conservative parties split the vote last time, that is not going to be the case this time, so to start, every NDP seat outside of Edmonton and Calgary is in danger. It is possible they may keep a handful of them, though somewhat unlikely.

What we will watch is the UCP advance into the two big cities. Edmonton was a sweep for the NDP last time, so it will be the hardest wall to crack. The UCP is much more likely to make significant inroads in Calgary, and if so, it could deliver them the election.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Links

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