2019 Alberta Provincial Election Predictions & Election Results

2019 Alberta Provincial Election

The 2019 Alberta provincial election could see another change in government in Edmonton.

Progressive Conservatives governed Alberta for 44 years uninterrupted, but a combination of infighting on the right and a mood for change took out the government in 2015. Rachel Notley led the New Democratic Party to their first-ever election victory in Alberta, shocking political observers with an NDP majority government in Canada’s most “small-c” conservative province.

A lot has changed since Notley came to power four years ago. The Progressive Conservatives and their right-wing rivals, the Wildrose Party, merged into the United Conservative Party. Former federal MP Jason Kenney was elected its leader. Alberta’s economy has had some hiccups. And, finally, as one might expect, one conservative party is more effective than two. The UCP has held substantial leads in the opinion polls as the right is no longer splitting its vote.

Does this spell the end of the first-term NDP government, or will Rachel Notley shock Canadian politics again?

There are 87 ridings across Alberta, and 44 seats are needed for a majority. As the election draws near, we will predict each and every riding in the province and make our estimates for who will win the 2019 Alberta provincial election.

When Is The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election?

The date of the election was April 16, 2019.

Party Leaders For The 2019 Alberta Provincial Election

Rachel Notley MLA (New Democratic, Premier)
Jason Kenney MLA (United Conservative, Leader of the Opposition)
Stephen Mandel (Alberta Party)
David Khan (Liberal)
Derek Fildebrandt MLA (Freedom Conservative)
Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes (Green)

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Vote Partisan Breakdown

New Democratic: 52 seats
United Conservative: 25 seats
Alberta Party: 3 seats
Independent: 3 seats
Liberal: 1 seat
Freedom Conservative: 1 seat
Progressive Conservative: 1 seat
Vacant: 1 seat
Government Majority: 18

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Results

2019 Alberta Election Results - Seats

2019 Alberta Election Results - Votes

Alberta Provincial Election Maps

2019 Alberta Election Results - Alberta Seats Map

2019 Alberta Election Results - Calgary Seats Map

2019 Alberta Election Results - Edmonton Seats Map

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Results Analysis

That the UCP would win was not in doubt. As we said several times, this election was lost for the NDP on the day the UCP came into being.

One thing is clear: many polls — in fact, almost all of them — underestimated the size of the UCP victory. In so doing, they greatly overestimated the NDP, which is why the map turned out a little bluer than suspected. We were expecting a race in which the UCP won by maybe about ten points or so, but they won by 23. Not only did the NDP not hold their vote together from last time, but they dropped eight percent overall. The UCP did three points better than the PC and Wildrose combined in 2015.

Meanwhile, the Alberta Party is hurting while the Liberal Party is dead on the provincial level. David Khan was a spectacular bust in Calgary-Mountain View, coming in a distant fourth. The NDP has replaced them as the party of the left in the province. Otherwise, Stephen Mandel did alright in Edmonton-McClung but had no shot at winning for the Alberta Party. Greg Clark losing decisively for the AP in Calgary-Elbow was a body blow.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Overall Prediction

2019 Alberta Election Prediction - 4-14-19

High-Low Seat Ranges

2019 Alberta Election Prediction seat ranges - 4-14-19

Northern Alberta

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock
Merged UCP/NDP Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Actual: UCP Win
Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul
David Hanson (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Central Peace-Notley
Margaret McCuaig-Boyd (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
Tany Yao (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Grande Prairie
Todd Loewen (UCP) – Running in Central Peace-Notley
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
Wayne Drysdale (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Lesser Slave Lake
Danielle Larivee (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Peace River
Debbie Jabbour (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP

Central Alberta

Camrose
Wes Taylor (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Drayton Valley-Devon
Mark Smith (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Drumheller-Stettler
Rick Strankman (Ind)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Devin Dreeshen (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland
Oneil Carlier (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Lacombe-Ponoka
Ron Orr (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
Bruce Hinkley (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Red Deer-North
Kim Schreiner (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Red Deer-South
Barb Miller (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
Jason Nixon (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright
Richard Starke (IPC) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind PC
Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind PC
West Yellowhead
Eric Rosendahl (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP

Southern Alberta

Brooks-Medicine Hat
Merged NDP/FCP Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Actual: UCP Win
Cardston-Siksika
Dave Schneider (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Cypress-Medicine Hat
Drew Barnes (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Lethbridge-East
Maria Fitzpatrick (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Lethbridge-West
Shannon Phillips (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Livingstone-Macleod
Pat Stier (UCP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Taber-Warner
Grant Hunter (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold

Calgary Region

Airdrie-Cochrane
New Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Actual: UCP Win
Airdrie-East
Angela Pitt (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Banff-Kananaskis
Cam Westhead (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Acadia
Brandy Payne (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Beddington
Karen MacPherson (AP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP
Actual: UCP GAIN from AP
Calgary-Bow
Deborah Drever (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Buffalo
Kathleen Ganley (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Mountain View
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Calgary-Cross
Ricardo Miranda (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Currie
Brian Malkinson (NDP)
NDP Hold
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-East
Robyn Luff (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind
Calgary-Edgemont
Michael Connolly (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Elbow
Greg Clark (AP)
Prediction: AP Hold
Actual: UCP GAIN from AP
Calgary-Falconridge
Prab Gill (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from Ind
Actual: UCP GAIN from Ind
Calgary-Fish Creek
Richard Gotfried (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Calgary-Foothills
Prasad Panda (UCP) – Running in Calgary-Edgemont
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Calgary-Glenmore
Anam Kazim (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Hays
Ric McIver (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Calgary-Klein
Craig Coolahan (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Calgary-Lougheed
Jason Kenney (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Calgary-McCall
Irfan Sabir (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: NDP Hold
Calgary-Mountain View
David Swann (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Lib Hold
Actual: NDP GAIN from Lib
Calgary-North
Jamie Kleinsteuber (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-North East
New Riding
Prediction: UCP Win
Actual: UCP Win
Calgary-North West
Sandra Jansen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Peigan
Joe Ceci (NDP) – Running in Calgary-Buffalo
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-Shaw
Graham Sucha (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Calgary-South East
Rick Fraser (AP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from AP
Actual: UCP GAIN from AP
Calgary-Varsity
Vacant – Formerly NDP
NDP Hold
Actual: UCP Win
Calgary-West
Mike Ellis (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Chestermere-Strathmore
Leela Aheer (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Highwood
Wayne Anderson (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Nathan Cooper (UCP)
Prediction: UCP Hold
Actual: UCP Hold

Edmonton Region

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
Deron Bilous (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Castle Downs
Nicole Goehring (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-City Centre
David Shepherd (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Decore
Chris Nielsen (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Rod Loyola (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Glenora
Sarah Hoffman (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Gold Bar
Marlin Schmidt (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
Brian Mason (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Manning
Heather Sweet (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-McClung
Lorne Dach (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Meadows
Denise Woollard (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Mill Woods
Christina Gray (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-North West
David Eggen (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Riverview
Lori Sigurdson (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Rutherford
Richard Feehan (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-South
New Riding
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-South West
Thomas Dang (NDP) – Running in Edmonton-South
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Edmonton-Strathcona
Rachel Notley (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-West Henday
Jon Carson (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Edmonton-Whitemud
Bob Turner (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
Jessica Littlewood (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Leduc-Beaumont
Shaye Anderson (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Morinville-St. Albert
New Riding
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Sherwood Park
Annie McKitrick (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
Erin Babcock (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP
St. Albert
Marie Renaud (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: NDP Hold
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
Estefania Cortes-Vargas (NDP)
Prediction: UCP GAIN from NDP
Actual: UCP GAIN from NDP

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, April 14, 2019

Our final prediction of the Alberta election campaign is a sizable UCP majority. They have come back up by a seat overall, to near 60. This would send the NDP government to the opposition benches with about half of their present seat total.

This campaign was always going to be difficult for the NDP. There is now one conservative party in Canada’s most right-leaning province. Rachel Notley had the deck stacked against her at that point, and was in a position where her party had to do better than when she won a majority four years ago just to have a chance. The good news for her is that she appears to have held together enough of the NDP vote in Edmonton to keep that city orange, which will make the overall vote count look respectable. Where it will go wrong is in Calgary and the “Rest of Alberta.”

There are likely to be few or no NDP MLAs in rural Alberta after April 16. Our “Rest of Alberta” is 26 UCP and just two for the NDP. On a very good night, the NDP might end up with four or five, but might also be down to just one. Rural NDP members that went up the middle on split votes in 2015 will lose their seats.

However, this election will be won or lost in Calgary. Our Calgary forecast is 26 UCP and the rest six, four of those going to the NDP. We have the UCP ahead about 16 points here based on an examination of recent polling, which will be enough to turn most of the city from orange to blue. The NDP won’t be totally wiped out here, but could come close. Seven seats is probably the most they can wish for here, but with 32 in the city and its immediate surrounding area, that’s not good enough.

Edmonton is the NDP’s forthcoming bright spot. We have Team Notley coming in with 20 seats in this region compared to just seven for the UCP. All of those will be on the fringes of the city.

Notley’s team fought hard in the campaign, with energetic campaign stops and a beneficial social media output, but beating the leading UCP is a tough ask. This is in spite of the fact that Jason Kenney, Alberta’s likely premier-in-waiting has had a difficult time with allegations of voter fraud surrounding his leadership race. (Reference: CTV News) That has not derailed the UCP, who still have enough of a lead outside of Edmonton to take government.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, April 5, 2019

Our outlook for the UCP has dropped, but only to the tune of five seats flipping back to the NDP. We can’t discount the possibility that the UCP is going to win a massive majority if only because of unity on the right, but the NDP has caught up in the last week or two. Or, at least, they are holding their own. The government remains on track for a near-wipeout in rural Alberta — they are not going to win seats in which the combined PC-Wildrose vote was upwards of 60 percent last time. Where the UCP has to go over the top for a majority is Calgary. Opinion polls have been all over, but it appears the UCP vote could be a bit worse than last time’s PC-Wildrose vote. Yes, the UCP will do just fine here and go over the top, but by how much?

The NDP is shoring up in Edmonton; with steadying poll numbers province-wide, Edmonton is the likeliest place in which their vote will concentrate. The UCP’s successes in the area, if any, will be on the outskirts.

We could have gone much harder on the UCP given that the NDP, depending on who you ask, is keeping pace with their 2015 vote share. They still have the advantage, but a more conservative approach is warranted now given the tilt of the province (of course). Another good week for the NDP could bump their numbers higher, but at this stage, their winning a majority isn’t appearing possible. The NDP’s best-case scenario seems to be a seat count somewhere in the 30s: a UCP majority, but not necessarily a landslide.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Analysis, March 20, 2019

Our first wave of predictions has hit. It is specifically a blue wave washing over Alberta and taking the NDP out of power following a single term.

When the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose merged, the NDP were behind the proverbial 8-ball. The two parties’ combined vote was about 11 points more than the NDP. Now, who is to say the UCP will hold all that vote together, but even if the NDP improves upon their 41 percent from 2015 (unlikely, but not impossible), the UCP still wins.

In fact, they are nearing an extinction-level event outside of Edmonton and Calgary. There are a number of “Rest of Alberta” seats in which the NDP squeaked out a win but the combined conservative vote was massive. Those seats are gone for the NDP. Even in Calgary, the same phenomenon will be repeated in a number of ridings.

The challenge for the NDP is that they have to increase their vote share beyond what they got in an historic election victory. Mind you, this is in Canada’s most conservative province, but one in which voters suffered fatigue with a decades-long government. The NDP government is on defense and have been since the day the UCP was born.

Edmonton is the NDP’s best hope to save the furniture so to speak. They will remain the dominant party there, but save for a miracle, the province map overall will be a lot less orange in April.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Pre-Prediction Lowdown

The new United Conservative Party will soon fight its first election. It enters said election campaign as the favorite to send the NDP packing after just one term in office.

Recent opinion polling has shown a consistent UCP lead in excess of ten points. Whereas the two conservative parties split the vote last time, that is not going to be the case this time, so to start, every NDP seat outside of Edmonton and Calgary is in danger. It is possible they may keep a handful of them, though somewhat unlikely.

What we will watch is the UCP advance into the two big cities. Edmonton was a sweep for the NDP last time, so it will be the hardest wall to crack. The UCP is much more likely to make significant inroads in Calgary, and if so, it could deliver them the election.

2019 Alberta Provincial Election Links

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