2019 Manitoba Provincial Election Results and Predictions

2019 Manitoba Provincial Election Results

Who will win the 2019 Manitoba provincial election?

This is a poll we did not expect to come in 2019; rather, in 2020. Manitoba last voted in 2016, but the current premier, Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives, moved for an early election. This vote by the people of Manitoba will sneak in a month and a half before Canada votes in its federal election. Some of his rationale for the early election is that Manitoba will celebrate its sesquicentennial in 2020 and that a campaign would be a distraction.1

When Pallister led the Progressive Conservatives to victory in 2016, he ended 17 years of NDP government in the province. His PCs won a sizable majority with 40 out of 57 seats. This ended the NDP’s best-ever run in Manitoba of four majority government wins in a row. Their caucus is at its smallest level since the 1988 provincial election. As for other Manitoba parties, the Liberals have not won an election since 1953 and have only cracked double-digit seats once since 1969. Manitoba is a two-party province, and time will tell if it is staying that way.

Will the Progressive Conservatives retain their strong mandate, or is it time for the NDP to claw their way back from the opposition benches? Further, will the Liberals, Manitoba Party, or Greens make any headway?

Date of the 2019 Manitoba Provincial Election

Election day in Manitoba will be Tuesday, September 10.

Poll openings and closings: Polls open at 8:00am local time and close at 8:00pm. There will also be advance polls at various times.

Manitoba Provincial Party Leaders

Brian Pallister MLA (Progressive Conservative, Premier)
Wab Kinew MLA (New Democratic, Leader of the Opposition)
Dougald Lamont MLA (Liberal)
James Beddome (Green)
David Sutherland (Manitoba Party)

2019 Manitoba Provincial Election Results

2019 Manitoba Election Results - Seats

2019 Manitoba Election Results - Votes

Brian Pallister and the Progressive Conservatives were returned for a second mandate, taking a reduced but still significant majority.

2019 Manitoba Provincial Election Seat-by-Seat

52/57: 91.2% correct

Northern Manitoba

Flin Flon
Tom Lindsey (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Keewatinook
Judy Klassen (Lib)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib
Actual: NDP GAIN from Lib
Swan River
Rick Wowchuk (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
The Pas-Kameesak
Amanda Lathlin (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Thompson
Kelly Bindle (PC)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from PC
Actual: NDP GAIN from PC

Central Manitoba

Borderland
Cliff Graydon (Ind)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Ind
Actual: PC GAIN from Ind
Interlake-Gimli
Derek Johnson (PC) — Jeff Wharton (PC) running in Red River North
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Lakeside
Ralph Eichler (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Midland
Blaine Pedersen (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Morden-Winkler
Cameron Friesen (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Portage la Prairie
Ian Wishart (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Springfield-Ritchot
Shannon Martin (PC) – Running in McPhillips
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold

Westman-Parkland

Agassiz
Eileen Clarke (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Brandon East
Len Isleifson (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Brandon West
Reg Helwer (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Dauphin
Brad Michaleski (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Riding Mountain
Greg Nesbitt (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Spruce Woods
Cliff Cullen (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Turtle Mountain
Doyle Piwniuk (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold

Eastman

Dawson Trail
Bob Lagassé (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Lac du Bonnet
Wayne Ewasko (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
La Verendrye
Dennis Smook (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Red River North
Ron Schuler (PC) – Running in Springfield-Ritchot
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Selkirk
Alan Lagimodiere (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Steinbach
Kelvin Goertzen (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold

Northwest Winnipeg

Burrows
Cindy Lamoureux (Lib) – Running in Tyndall Park
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib
Actual: NDP GAIN from Lib
Kildonan-River East
Cathy Cox (PC) – Nic Curry (PC) Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP GAIN from PC
Actual: PC Hold
McPhillips
New Riding – No Incumbent
Prediction: PC Win
Actual: PC Win
Point Douglas
Bernadette Smith (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
St. Johns
Nahanni Fontaine (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
The Maples
Mohinder Saran (Ind)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Ind
Actual: NDP GAIN from Ind
Tyndall Park
Ted Marcelino (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: Lib GAIN from NDP

Northeast Winnipeg

Concordia
Matt Wiebe (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Elmwood
Jim Maloway (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Radisson
James Teitsma (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Rossmere
Andrew Micklefield (PC)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from PC
Actual: PC Hold
St. Boniface
Dougald Lamont (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold
Transcona
Blair Yakimoski (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: NDP GAIN from PC

Central Winnipeg

Fort Garry
James Allum (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Fort Rouge
Wab Kinew (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Notre Dame
Andrew Swan (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
River Heights
Jon Gerrard (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold
Union Station
Flor Marcelino (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Actual: NDP Hold
Wolseley
Rob Altemeyer (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Green GAIN from NDP
Actual: NDP Hold

West Winnipeg

Assiniboia
Steven Fletcher (MP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: PC GAIN from MP
Actual: PC GAIN from MP
Roblin
Myrna Driedger (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Kirkfield Park
Scott Fielding (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
St. James
Scott Johnston (PC) – Running in Assiniboia
Prediction: NDP GAIN from PC
Actual: NDP GAIN from PC
Tuxedo
Heather Stefanson (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold

South Winnipeg

Fort Richmond
Sarah Guillemard (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Fort Whyte
Brian Pallister (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Lagimodière
New Riding – No Incumbent
Prediction: PC Win
Actual: PC Win
Riel
Rochelle Squires (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Seine River
Janice Morley-Lecomte (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Southdale
Andrew Smith (PC) – Running in Lagimodière
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
St. Vital
Colleen Mayer (PC)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from PC
Actual: NDP GAIN from PC
Waverley
Jon Reyes (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold

Post-Election Analysis, September 11, 2019

Manitoba had no serious mood for change, despite the early election that may have rankled a few of the province’s voters. The Progressive Conservatives were returned with 36 seats, down just four from their landslide win in 2016. Overall, the PC vote was robust in Manitoba at 47 percent, well above what is considered typical of a majority government. Given their broad victory in 2016, the PCs could have afforded a bigger swing against than 5.8 percent and still won. A win is a win for Pallister, who will continue with his policy program undeterred. Who can blame him, as it’s still a comfortable majority he commands.

In New Brunswick and Quebec, one-term governments are more normal. Not in Manitoba, which has not voted out a first-term government since 1981. This was never going to be an NDP win. Their hopes for 2023, however, are boosted. It’s not just that they gained four seats, but they shrunk PC pluralities in a number of seats. Winnipeg, as always, will be the place they target in the coming years.

The Liberals did virtually nothing, capturing almost the same vote share as last time with the same seat total. As for the Greens, they gained vote share, but came up just short in their breakthrough bid in Wolseley.

Election Analysis, August 22, 2019

We think the Progressive Conservatives are bound to lose at least one seat, probably five, and perhaps upwards of ten if they have a bad night. In all three of those scenarios, Brian Pallister returns with a majority government. The size of that majority government is at issue.

Indications are that the Progressive Conservatives have lost steam in Winnipeg, the city in which they will take most of their losses. The NDP dominated the city for years, and after a blue incursion, the orange will start pushing it back out into the more rural areas. Wab Kinew’s party would have to have a spectacular election night to get into the mid-20s, and there is still the (good) chance they lose Wolseley to the Greens. One can assume the NDP will settle in this election with knocking the PCs down into a much slimmer majority in a set-up for 2023.

A minority government is very unlikely. The Liberals and Greens will not form much of a crossbench, and we predict the Manitoba Party will not remain in the legislature this time. Likewise, the Independents sitting now will be gone soon.

Expect to see the PCs come back down to Earth a little from their 2016 landslide, but ride home with the win because they started this campaign too far ahead to be caught.

Election Analysis, July 25, 2019

Our first wave of predictions has the Progressive Conservatives retaining a majority government. It is down in size a little, not a lot, just like their poll numbers. Replicating their 2016 landslide win in which they got 53 percent of the provincial vote would be difficult. They do not need to in order to get re-elected by a comfortable margin.

The Progressive Conservatives have not trailed at all in the opinion polls since the Pallister government’s election. In the most recent public survey, a Winnipeg Free Press/Probe Research poll gave the PCs a 17-point lead over the NDP.2 Such a result replicated on election night would give the Progressive Conservatives an easy win, shedding a handful of their 2016 gains but not enough to satisfy the opposition. The PC vote will be slashed somewhat, but they won big enough in many ridings last time and they can sustain a five to ten-point swing in a lot of places and still win.

Manitoba had 17 years of uninterrupted NDP majority governments. There does not seem to be any mood to install the NDP again after a three-year break. Pallister’s premiership has not been without some controversy, but there is no evidence to suggest that Manitobans want to make a change right now. A realistic outcome is that the NDP improve their vote totals to a degree where they feel they can compete in the 2023 election. Save for a major bombshell on the campaign trail, this is not a winnable election for the NDP at present.

Pre-Election Party Breakdown of Manitoba Legislative Assembly

Manitoba Legislature current standings

2019 Manitoba Provincial Election Current Prediction

2019 Manitoba Election Predictions - Seats 8-22-19

MB High/Low Seat Ranges

2019 Manitoba Election Predictions - Seat Ranges 8-22-19

References

1: “Manitoba premier says provincial election will happen ‘for sure’ in 2019” (by Ian Frose, CBC News website, published 22 May 2019, accessed 21 July 2019)

2: “No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: poll” (by Dylan Robertson, Winnipeg Free Press website, published 25 June 2019, accessed 23 July 2019)

X: Get more on Canadian elections at Electionarium here.

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