2019 New South Wales Election Predictions & Election Results

We make our 2019 New South Wales election predictions as Australia’s most populous state heads to the polls.

Will the incumbent premier, Gladys Berejiklian, win a mandate of her own for the Coalition, or is it Labor’s time to retake power in Sydney? Further, will there be no clear winner, forcing a rare minority government situation?

Berejiklian, the state’s second female premier and first female Liberal Party leader since Kerry Chikarovski left in 2002, has a difficult task on her hands. The Liberal-National coalition has served two terms as the government, and Berejiklian is the third Liberal premier since 2011. They are not lasting long in the top job, but that’s not the only history with which the premier is fighting. The Coalition has only one three straight New South Wales Elections once, and it’s been almost 50 years. That party had the continuity of Bob Askin as leader; these Liberals have had their ups and downs, and several leader changes.

What does fate have in store for the Liberals, Nationals, Labor, and any of the other various and sundry political parties contesting this poll?

Election predictions now, and election results to follow. Also check out the upcoming 2019 Australian Election Predictions and Election Results.

When Is The 2019 New South Wales Election?

The election date in New South Wales is Saturday, 23 March 2019.

2019 New South Wales Election Party Leaders

2019 New South Wales Election Pre-Vote Party Breakdown

As the Legislative Assembly will be dissolved, the party standings were as follows:

2019 New South Wales Election Results

Electorate Results Map: All Electorates Made Equal in Size

2019 New South Wales Election Results Analysis

Our final prediction a week before the election reflected two things: the ongoing tightness of the two-party preferred results, and the rise of the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party. It appeared the Coalition would have the most seats but would bleed out just enough to cost them a majority.

What actually happened is that Labour far underperformed expectations. It appears the Coalition has won the two-party preferred vote in the state, the Labor primary vote dropped, taking them below the last election and their opinion polling for this one, and they came up short in several of their target seats. Labor did almost nothing to make inroads in the Metropolitan Region, with Coogee their only gain there. For example, if Labor were to make a serious case for winning, East Hills should have been one of the first to fall. A 0.4% Liberal margin previously, the Liberals actually took a positive swing and held the seat. There were others around the state, like Goulburn, in which Labor gained modest swings but not enough.

Upper Hunter and Tweed were big failures by Labor in particular; both were Nationals marginals in which Labor were considered to have a good chance. The swing went against Labor in both. In Upper Hunter, the SFF vote appeared to help bail the Nationals out when preferences were distributed, but not so in Tweed.

Speaking of the SFF, they pried away several National stronghold seats in regional New South Wales. Rumors of dissatisfaction in some communities with the Nats were true. They will have three state MPs in the next Parliament, as will the Greens, also on an uptick.

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions: Overall (Updated 17 March 2019)

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions By Seat (Updated 17 March 2019)

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 March 2019

It appears that the Liberal-National Coalition is heading for a minority government. It’s not Labor that will do them in by themselves, but the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers will play a role.

The Nationals look to be in less than optimal shape in regional New South Wales. Not only have the SFF fielded some credible candidates, but fatigue with the Nationals and disappointment in what some see as a lack of delivery on promises has hurt them. In Barwon, for example, Labor has a good candidate as well, but if it comes down to it, they are not most likely going to preference the Nats. If this “anybody but the Nats” vote happens, they could lose a few seats. This also applies in the north of New South Wales, where Labor, Greens, and/or the SFF could help wrest away seats such as Lismore, Upper Hunter, and Tweed.

Meanwhile, the Liberals look like they are weakening in some areas of Sydney metro. Stuart Ayres in Penrith is in trouble, as is Bruce Notley-Smith in Coogee.

A few more things would have to break right for Labor to pass the Coalition in the final count, but as you can see, they are not likely far off of it now. However, were any major party to win a majority, it would be the Coalition. This would come from a few of those SFF challenges fizzling out and perhaps holding onto a seat on the North Coast that we have flipping now. Labor’s path to a majority is more narrow and would require some very large swings; larger than we predict at present.

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 February 2019

Our first New South Wales election prediction is a little more on the conservative side, literally and figuratively. The Coalition just barely squeaks home at 47 seats, a loss of four, while Labor is up five.

Some large swings will be required in order to deliver Labor to government. We still have month to go to figure out from where those are coming.

Liberals will be in fear in New South Wales for a few reasons. Their government is not overwhelmingly popular anymore, the federal Liberals are a sinking ship, and they all saw what just happened in Victoria. Gladys Berejiklian and the Liberals might pull through on a 50-50 two-party preferred result. As always, the Sydney suburbs will be key, though up north the Coalition will have several fights on their hands.

2019 New South Wales Election Links

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NSW Electoral Commission

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