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2019 New South Wales Election Predictions & Election Results

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2019 New South Wales Election Predictions

We make our 2019 New South Wales election predictions as Australia’s most populous state heads to the polls.

Will the incumbent premier, Gladys Berejiklian, win a mandate of her own for the Coalition, or is it Labor’s time to retake power in Sydney? Further, will there be no clear winner, forcing a rare minority government situation?

Berejiklian, the state’s second female premier and first female Liberal Party leader since Kerry Chikarovski left in 2002, has a difficult task on her hands. The Liberal-National coalition has served two terms as the government, and Berejiklian is the third Liberal premier since 2011. They are not lasting long in the top job, but that’s not the only history with which the premier is fighting. The Coalition has only one three straight New South Wales Elections once, and it’s been almost 50 years. That party had the continuity of Bob Askin as leader; these Liberals have had their ups and downs, and several leader changes.

What does fate have in store for the Liberals, Nationals, Labor, and any of the other various and sundry political parties contesting this poll?

Election predictions now, and election results to follow. Also check out the upcoming 2019 Australian Election Predictions and Election Results.

When Is The 2019 New South Wales Election?

The election date in New South Wales is Saturday, 23 March 2019.

2019 New South Wales Election Party Leaders

Gladys Berejilkian MP (Liberal, Premier)
Michael Daley MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition)
John Barilaro MP (National, Deputy Premier)
None (Greens)

2019 New South Wales Election Pre-Vote Party Breakdown

As the Legislative Assembly will be dissolved, the party standings were as follows:

Coalition: 51 (Lib 35, Nat 16)
Labor: 34
Greens: 3
Independents: 3
Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers: 1
Vacant: 1
Government Majority: 10

2019 New South Wales Election Results

2019 New South Wales Election Results

Electorate Results Map: All Electorates Made Equal in Size

2019 New South Wales Election Results - Equal Size Electorates

2019 New South Wales Election Results Analysis

Our final prediction a week before the election reflected two things: the ongoing tightness of the two-party preferred results, and the rise of the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party. It appeared the Coalition would have the most seats but would bleed out just enough to cost them a majority.

What actually happened is that Labour far underperformed expectations. It appears the Coalition has won the two-party preferred vote in the state, the Labor primary vote dropped, taking them below the last election and their opinion polling for this one, and they came up short in several of their target seats. Labor did almost nothing to make inroads in the Metropolitan Region, with Coogee their only gain there. For example, if Labor were to make a serious case for winning, East Hills should have been one of the first to fall. A 0.4% Liberal margin previously, the Liberals actually took a positive swing and held the seat. There were others around the state, like Goulburn, in which Labor gained modest swings but not enough.

Upper Hunter and Tweed were big failures by Labor in particular; both were Nationals marginals in which Labor were considered to have a good chance. The swing went against Labor in both. In Upper Hunter, the SFF vote appeared to help bail the Nationals out when preferences were distributed, but not so in Tweed.

Speaking of the SFF, they pried away several National stronghold seats in regional New South Wales. Rumors of dissatisfaction in some communities with the Nats were true. They will have three state MPs in the next Parliament, as will the Greens, also on an uptick.

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions: Overall (Updated 17 March 2019)

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions - 17 Mar 2019

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions By Seat (Updated 17 March 2019)

Greg Aplin (Lib 13.2) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Luke Foley (ALP 5.9) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Tamara Smith (Grn 3.1 vs. Nat)
Prediction: Grn Hold
Jamie Parker (Grn 4.7 vs. ALP)
Prediction: Grn Hold
Tania Mihailuk (ALP 14.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kevin Humphries (Nat 12.9) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: SFF GAIN from Nat
Paul Toole (Nat 15.8)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Baulkham Hills
David Elliott (Lib 21.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Andrew Constance (Lib 8.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Stephen Bali (ALP 13.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Blue Mountains
Trish Doyle (ALP 8.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Nick Lalich (ALP 17.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Chris Patterson (Lib 18.3) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Greg Warren (ALP 7.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Sophie Cotsis (ALP 15.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Castle Hill
Ray Williams (Lib 29.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Clayton Barr (ALP 22.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Jodie Harrison (ALP 12.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Chris Gulaptis (Nat 9.7)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Coffs Harbour
Andrew Fraser (Nat 14.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Nat Hold
Bruce Notley-Smith (Lib 2.9)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Steph Cooke (Nat 20.4)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Mark Speakman (Lib 20.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Jonathan O’Dea (Lib 28.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
John Sido.ti (Lib 18.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Troy Grant (Nat 20.4) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Nat Hold
East Hills
Glenn Brookes (Lib 0.4) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Damien Tudehope (Lib 16.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Guy Zangari (ALP 17.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Liesl Tesch (ALP 0.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Pru Goward (Lib 6.6) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Julia Finn (ALP 2.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Dominic Perrottet (Lib 17.8) – Running in Epping
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lee Evans (Lib 7.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ron Hoenig (ALP 14.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Melanie Gibbons (Lib 6.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Matt Kean (Lib 18.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ryan Park (ALP 17.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gareth Ward (Lib 8.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Chris Minns (ALP 6.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Alister Henskens (Lib 23.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lake Macquarie
Greg Piper (Ind 10.7 vs. ALP)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Jihad Dib (ALP 21.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lane Cove
Anthony Roberts (Lib 17.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Thomas George (Nat 2.9 vs. Grn) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat
Paul Lynch (ALP 20.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Prue Car (ALP 8.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Macquarie Fields
Anoulack Chanthivong (ALP 8.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Jenny Aitchison (ALP 13.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
James Griffin (Lib 24.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Michael Daley (ALP 10.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Eleni Petinos (Lib 13.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
John Barilaro (Nat 2.5)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Mount Druitt
Edmond Atalla (ALP 15.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Tanya Davies (Lib 9.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Austin Evans (Nat 22.7)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Myall Lakes
Stephen Bromhead (Nat 8.7)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Tim Crakanthorp (ALP 7.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Jenny Leong (Grn 9.3 vs. ALP)
Prediction: Grn Hold
North Shore
Felicity Wilson (Lib 21.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Northern Tablelands
Adam Marshall (Nat 27.1)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Mark Coure (Lib 6.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Philip Donato (SFF 0.1 vs. Nat)
Prediction: SFF Hold
Melinda Pavey (Nat 10.9)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Geoff Lee (Lib 12.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Stuart Ayres (Lib 6.2)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Rob Stokes (Lib 25.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Port Macquarie
Leslie Williams (Nat 19.0)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Port Stephens
Kate Washington (ALP 4.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hugh McDermott (ALP 3.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kevin Conolly (Lib 12.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Stephen Kamper (ALP 4.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Victor Dominello (Lib 11.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Seven Hills
Mark Taylor (Lib 8.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Anna Watson (ALP 17.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
South Coast
Shelley Hancock (Lib 9.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Jodi McKay (ALP 1.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Summer Hill
Jo Haylen (ALP 10.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Yasmin Catley (ALP 13.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Alex Greenwich (Ind 8.1 vs. Lib)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Kevin Anderson (Nat 10.0)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Adam Crouch (Lib 9.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
The Entrance
David Mehan (ALP 0.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Geoff Provest (Nat 3.2)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat
Upper Hunter
Michael Johnsen (Nat 2.2)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat
Gabrielle Upton (Lib 22.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Wagga Wagga
Joe McGirr (Ind 9.6 vs. Lib)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Brad Hazzard (Lib 25.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Sonia Hornery (ALP 20.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gladys Berejiklian (Lib 24.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vacant (Lib 17.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Paul Scully (ALP 8.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
David Harris (ALP 8.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 March 2019

It appears that the Liberal-National Coalition is heading for a minority government. It’s not Labor that will do them in by themselves, but the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers will play a role.

The Nationals look to be in less than optimal shape in regional New South Wales. Not only have the SFF fielded some credible candidates, but fatigue with the Nationals and disappointment in what some see as a lack of delivery on promises has hurt them. In Barwon, for example, Labor has a good candidate as well, but if it comes down to it, they are not most likely going to preference the Nats. If this “anybody but the Nats” vote happens, they could lose a few seats. This also applies in the north of New South Wales, where Labor, Greens, and/or the SFF could help wrest away seats such as Lismore, Upper Hunter, and Tweed.

Meanwhile, the Liberals look like they are weakening in some areas of Sydney metro. Stuart Ayres in Penrith is in trouble, as is Bruce Notley-Smith in Coogee.

A few more things would have to break right for Labor to pass the Coalition in the final count, but as you can see, they are not likely far off of it now. However, were any major party to win a majority, it would be the Coalition. This would come from a few of those SFF challenges fizzling out and perhaps holding onto a seat on the North Coast that we have flipping now. Labor’s path to a majority is more narrow and would require some very large swings; larger than we predict at present.

2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 February 2019

Our first New South Wales election prediction is a little more on the conservative side, literally and figuratively. The Coalition just barely squeaks home at 47 seats, a loss of four, while Labor is up five.

Some large swings will be required in order to deliver Labor to government. We still have month to go to figure out from where those are coming.

Liberals will be in fear in New South Wales for a few reasons. Their government is not overwhelmingly popular anymore, the federal Liberals are a sinking ship, and they all saw what just happened in Victoria. Gladys Berejiklian and the Liberals might pull through on a 50-50 two-party preferred result. As always, the Sydney suburbs will be key, though up north the Coalition will have several fights on their hands.

2019 New South Wales Election Links

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NSW Electoral Commission

Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens

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