We make our 2019 New South Wales election predictions as Australia’s most populous state heads to the polls.
Will the incumbent premier, Gladys Berejiklian, win a mandate of her own for the Coalition, or is it Labor’s time to retake power in Sydney? Further, will there be no clear winner, forcing a rare minority government situation?
Berejiklian, the state’s second female premier and first female Liberal Party leader since Kerry Chikarovski left in 2002, has a difficult task on her hands. The Liberal-National coalition has served two terms as the government, and Berejiklian is the third Liberal premier since 2011. They are not lasting long in the top job, but that’s not the only history with which the premier is fighting. The Coalition has only one three straight New South Wales Elections once, and it’s been almost 50 years. That party had the continuity of Bob Askin as leader; these Liberals have had their ups and downs, and several leader changes.
What does fate have in store for the Liberals, Nationals, Labor, and any of the other various and sundry political parties contesting this poll?
Election predictions now, and election results to follow. Also check out the upcoming 2019 Australian Election Predictions and Election Results.
When Is The 2019 New South Wales Election?
The election date in New South Wales is Saturday, 23 March 2019.
2019 New South Wales Election Party Leaders
| Gladys Berejilkian MP (Liberal, Premier) |
| Michael Daley MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition) |
| John Barilaro MP (National, Deputy Premier) |
| None (Greens) |
2019 New South Wales Election Pre-Vote Party Breakdown
As the Legislative Assembly will be dissolved, the party standings were as follows:
| Coalition: 51 (Lib 35, Nat 16) |
| Labor: 34 |
| Greens: 3 |
| Independents: 3 |
| Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers: 1 |
| Vacant: 1 |
| Government Majority: 10 |
2019 New South Wales Election Results
Electorate Results Map: All Electorates Made Equal in Size
2019 New South Wales Election Results Analysis
Our final prediction a week before the election reflected two things: the ongoing tightness of the two-party preferred results, and the rise of the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers Party. It appeared the Coalition would have the most seats but would bleed out just enough to cost them a majority.
What actually happened is that Labour far underperformed expectations. It appears the Coalition has won the two-party preferred vote in the state, the Labor primary vote dropped, taking them below the last election and their opinion polling for this one, and they came up short in several of their target seats. Labor did almost nothing to make inroads in the Metropolitan Region, with Coogee their only gain there. For example, if Labor were to make a serious case for winning, East Hills should have been one of the first to fall. A 0.4% Liberal margin previously, the Liberals actually took a positive swing and held the seat. There were others around the state, like Goulburn, in which Labor gained modest swings but not enough.
Upper Hunter and Tweed were big failures by Labor in particular; both were Nationals marginals in which Labor were considered to have a good chance. The swing went against Labor in both. In Upper Hunter, the SFF vote appeared to help bail the Nationals out when preferences were distributed, but not so in Tweed.
Speaking of the SFF, they pried away several National stronghold seats in regional New South Wales. Rumors of dissatisfaction in some communities with the Nats were true. They will have three state MPs in the next Parliament, as will the Greens, also on an uptick.
2019 New South Wales Election Predictions: Overall (Updated 17 March 2019)
2019 New South Wales Election Predictions By Seat (Updated 17 March 2019)
| Albury |
|---|
| Greg Aplin (Lib 13.2) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Auburn |
| Luke Foley (ALP 5.9) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Ballina |
| Tamara Smith (Grn 3.1 vs. Nat) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| Balmain |
| Jamie Parker (Grn 4.7 vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| Bankstown |
| Tania Mihailuk (ALP 14.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Barwon |
| Kevin Humphries (Nat 12.9) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: SFF GAIN from Nat |
| Bathurst |
| Paul Toole (Nat 15.8) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Baulkham Hills |
| David Elliott (Lib 21.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Bega |
| Andrew Constance (Lib 8.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Blacktown |
| Stephen Bali (ALP 13.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Blue Mountains |
| Trish Doyle (ALP 8.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Cabramatta |
| Nick Lalich (ALP 17.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Camden |
| Chris Patterson (Lib 18.3) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Campbelltown |
| Greg Warren (ALP 7.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Canterbury |
| Sophie Cotsis (ALP 15.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Castle Hill |
| Ray Williams (Lib 29.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Cessnock |
| Clayton Barr (ALP 22.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Charlestown |
| Jodie Harrison (ALP 12.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Clarence |
| Chris Gulaptis (Nat 9.7) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Coffs Harbour |
| Andrew Fraser (Nat 14.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Coogee |
| Bruce Notley-Smith (Lib 2.9) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Cootamundra |
| Steph Cooke (Nat 20.4) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Cronulla |
| Mark Speakman (Lib 20.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Davidson |
| Jonathan O’Dea (Lib 28.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Drummoyne |
| John Sido.ti (Lib 18.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Dubbo |
| Troy Grant (Nat 20.4) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| East Hills |
| Glenn Brookes (Lib 0.4) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Epping |
| Damien Tudehope (Lib 16.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fairfield |
| Guy Zangari (ALP 17.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Gosford |
| Liesl Tesch (ALP 0.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Goulburn |
| Pru Goward (Lib 6.6) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Granville |
| Julia Finn (ALP 2.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hawkesbury |
| Dominic Perrottet (Lib 17.8) – Running in Epping |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Heathcote |
| Lee Evans (Lib 7.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Heffron |
| Ron Hoenig (ALP 14.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Holsworthy |
| Melanie Gibbons (Lib 6.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hornsby |
| Matt Kean (Lib 18.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Keira |
| Ryan Park (ALP 17.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kiama |
| Gareth Ward (Lib 8.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Kogarah |
| Chris Minns (ALP 6.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Ku-ring-gai |
| Alister Henskens (Lib 23.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Lake Macquarie |
| Greg Piper (Ind 10.7 vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Lakemba |
| Jihad Dib (ALP 21.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lane Cove |
| Anthony Roberts (Lib 17.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Lismore |
| Thomas George (Nat 2.9 vs. Grn) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat |
| Liverpool |
| Paul Lynch (ALP 20.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Londonderry |
| Prue Car (ALP 8.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Macquarie Fields |
| Anoulack Chanthivong (ALP 8.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Maitland |
| Jenny Aitchison (ALP 13.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Manly |
| James Griffin (Lib 24.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Maroubra |
| Michael Daley (ALP 10.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Miranda |
| Eleni Petinos (Lib 13.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Monaro |
| John Barilaro (Nat 2.5) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Mount Druitt |
| Edmond Atalla (ALP 15.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mulgoa |
| Tanya Davies (Lib 9.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Murray |
| Austin Evans (Nat 22.7) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Myall Lakes |
| Stephen Bromhead (Nat 8.7) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Newcastle |
| Tim Crakanthorp (ALP 7.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Newtown |
| Jenny Leong (Grn 9.3 vs. ALP) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| North Shore |
| Felicity Wilson (Lib 21.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Northern Tablelands |
| Adam Marshall (Nat 27.1) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Oatley |
| Mark Coure (Lib 6.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Orange |
| Philip Donato (SFF 0.1 vs. Nat) |
| Prediction: SFF Hold |
| Oxley |
| Melinda Pavey (Nat 10.9) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Parramatta |
| Geoff Lee (Lib 12.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Penrith |
| Stuart Ayres (Lib 6.2) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Pittwater |
| Rob Stokes (Lib 25.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Port Macquarie |
| Leslie Williams (Nat 19.0) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Port Stephens |
| Kate Washington (ALP 4.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Prospect |
| Hugh McDermott (ALP 3.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Riverstone |
| Kevin Conolly (Lib 12.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Rockdale |
| Stephen Kamper (ALP 4.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Ryde |
| Victor Dominello (Lib 11.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Seven Hills |
| Mark Taylor (Lib 8.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Shellharbour |
| Anna Watson (ALP 17.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| South Coast |
| Shelley Hancock (Lib 9.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Strathfield |
| Jodi McKay (ALP 1.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Summer Hill |
| Jo Haylen (ALP 10.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Swansea |
| Yasmin Catley (ALP 13.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Sydney |
| Alex Greenwich (Ind 8.1 vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Tamworth |
| Kevin Anderson (Nat 10.0) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Terrigal |
| Adam Crouch (Lib 9.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| The Entrance |
| David Mehan (ALP 0.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Tweed |
| Geoff Provest (Nat 3.2) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat |
| Upper Hunter |
| Michael Johnsen (Nat 2.2) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Nat |
| Vaucluse |
| Gabrielle Upton (Lib 22.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wagga Wagga |
| Joe McGirr (Ind 9.6 vs. Lib) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Wakehurst |
| Brad Hazzard (Lib 25.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wallsend |
| Sonia Hornery (ALP 20.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Willoughby |
| Gladys Berejiklian (Lib 24.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wollondilly |
| Vacant (Lib 17.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wollongong |
| Paul Scully (ALP 8.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Wyong |
| David Harris (ALP 8.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 March 2019
It appears that the Liberal-National Coalition is heading for a minority government. It’s not Labor that will do them in by themselves, but the Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers will play a role.
The Nationals look to be in less than optimal shape in regional New South Wales. Not only have the SFF fielded some credible candidates, but fatigue with the Nationals and disappointment in what some see as a lack of delivery on promises has hurt them. In Barwon, for example, Labor has a good candidate as well, but if it comes down to it, they are not most likely going to preference the Nats. If this “anybody but the Nats” vote happens, they could lose a few seats. This also applies in the north of New South Wales, where Labor, Greens, and/or the SFF could help wrest away seats such as Lismore, Upper Hunter, and Tweed.
Meanwhile, the Liberals look like they are weakening in some areas of Sydney metro. Stuart Ayres in Penrith is in trouble, as is Bruce Notley-Smith in Coogee.
A few more things would have to break right for Labor to pass the Coalition in the final count, but as you can see, they are not likely far off of it now. However, were any major party to win a majority, it would be the Coalition. This would come from a few of those SFF challenges fizzling out and perhaps holding onto a seat on the North Coast that we have flipping now. Labor’s path to a majority is more narrow and would require some very large swings; larger than we predict at present.
2019 New South Wales Election Predictions Analysis, 17 February 2019
Our first New South Wales election prediction is a little more on the conservative side, literally and figuratively. The Coalition just barely squeaks home at 47 seats, a loss of four, while Labor is up five.
Some large swings will be required in order to deliver Labor to government. We still have month to go to figure out from where those are coming.
Liberals will be in fear in New South Wales for a few reasons. Their government is not overwhelmingly popular anymore, the federal Liberals are a sinking ship, and they all saw what just happened in Victoria. Gladys Berejiklian and the Liberals might pull through on a 50-50 two-party preferred result. As always, the Sydney suburbs will be key, though up north the Coalition will have several fights on their hands.
2019 New South Wales Election Links
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