2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Predictions & Election Results

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election

With the coming of the 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, three Canadian provinces will vote within one month of each other.

The rationale for that is crisp: Canada’s federal election is slated to take place in October. Alberta already had their vote in the spring, but both Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador could have waited until the Fall. That was not going to be the case with such big doings on a national scale.

Alberta saw a change in government. Prince Edward Island will most likely also elect a new government. (And be sure to track other Canadian elections here.) Last time Newfoundland and Labrador went to the polls, that’s what they did. Is it one-and-done for Premier Dwight Ball and the Liberals, or will he be the first Liberal since Brian Tobin in 1999 to win consecutive elections?

Ball, who led the Liberals back in 2015 after 12 years out of power, has a substantial legislative majority surrounding him. There are 40 seats in the legislature, meaning 21 are required for a majority government.

When Is The 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election?

Election day has been set for May 16, 2019.

Polls will be open starting at 8am NL time and they close at 8pm NL time (6:30pm Eastern).

Party Leaders: 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election

Dwight Ball MLA (Liberal, Premier)
Ches Crosbie MLA (Progressive Conservative, Leader of the Opposition)
Alison Coffin (New Democratic)
Graydon Pelley (NL Alliance)

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election: Party Breakdown At Dissolution

Liberal: 27 seats
Progressive Conservative: 8 seats
Independent: 3 seats
New Democratic: 2 seats
Government Majority: 14

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Results

Seats

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results - Seats

Votes

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results - Votes

Maps of the Province

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results -St Johns Map

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results - Avalon Peninsula Map

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results - Newfoundland Map

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Results - Labrador Map

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Results Narrative

The opinion polls tightened throughout the campaign. It looked like the Liberals’ election to lose, and they were losing it. Then, the early numbers came in, and things did not appear so bad for Team Dwight Ball. With anywhere between 23 and 25 seats, sure, it was a hit, but one the Liberal government would survive with another majority.

Matters became more dire for the Liberals towards the closing moments of the vote count, when leads sheared away from seats thought to be safe resulted in losses. Torngat Mountains (PC) and Labrador West (NDP) flipped while other cabinet ministers such as Al Hawkins lost on the island. Meanwhile, two ex-Liberals, Paul Lane and Eddie Joyce, won seats as independents.

It was never supposed to be this difficult for the Liberals. This is a party that ousted a sitting government four years ago in a landslide, collecting a swing in excess of 30 points and winning over three-quarters of legislature seats. Today, they have 11 fewer seats in the bank than they did on that election night, coming in with only 20, one short of an overall majority. Central Newfoundland could have gone a lot worse for the Liberals, but other parts did, like Labrador giving away two Liberal seats. In fact, had Central Newfoundland gone as badly as the opinion polls suggested, Ches Crosbie might be premier.

Dwight Ball’s administration inherited the prior government’s baggage, but some Newfoundlanders saw that Ball broke promises along the way these last four years. Couple that with economic issues, which always get voters’ attention, and the Liberal government that gained a 32-point swing last time had almost a 13-point swing back against it four years later. This is also why you now see five MLAs on the so-called crossbenches, as well as a decline in voter turnout: dissatisfaction with both major parties.

The question now is how long the Liberal government will last. Do they sweet talk an NDP or independent MLA into the speakership? (The latter seems less likely as both men were former Liberal Party members who would not be predisposed to do Ball any favours.) If the speaker is a Liberal, will they be able to get anything done with just 19 MLAs and hope that the NDP gets on-side? We’re not going to tuck away our notes on Newfoundland & Labrador elections just yet.

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election Current Overall Prediction

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Prediction - 5-13-19

NL High-Low Seat Ranges

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Seat Ranges - 5-13-19

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election: Seat-by-Seat

Avalon Peninsula

Carbonear—Trinity—Bay de Verde
Steve Crocker (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ferryland
Keith Hutchings (PC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: PC Hold
Harbour Grace—Port de Grave
Pam Parsons (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Harbour Main
Betty Parsley (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Placentia—St. Mary’s
Sherry Gambin-Walsh (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Central Newfoundland

Baie Verte—Green Bay
Brian Warr (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Exploits
Jerry Dean (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Fogo Island—Cape Freels
Derrick Bragg (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fortune Bay—Cape La Hune
Tracey Perry (PC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: PC Hold
Gander
John Haggie (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Grand Falls-Windsor—Buchans
Al Hawkins (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Lewisporte—Twillingate
Derek Bennett (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib

Eastern Newfoundland

Bonavista
Neil King (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Burin—Grand Bank
Carol Anne Haley (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Placentia West—Bellevue
Mark Browne (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Terra Nova
Colin Holloway (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib

Labrador

Cartwright—L’Anse au Clair
Lisa Dempster (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Labrador West
Graham Letto (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lake Melville
Perry Trimper (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Torngat Mountains
Randy Edmunds (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

St. John’s

Mount Scio
Dale Kirby (Ind)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
St. John’s Centre
Gerry Rogers (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
St. John’s East—Quidi Vidi
Lorraine Michael (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
St. John’s West
Siobhan Coady (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Virginia Waters—Pleasantville
Bernard Davis (Lib)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Waterford Valley
Tom Osborne (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Windsor Lake
Ches Crosbie (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold

St. John’s Suburbs

Cape St. Francis
Kevin Parsons (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Conception Bay East—Bell Island
David Brazil (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Conception Bay South
Barry Petten (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Mount Pearl North
Jim Lester (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Mount Pearl—Southlands
Paul Lane (Ind)
Prediction: PC GAIN from Ind
Topsail—Paradise
Paul Dinn (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold

Western Newfoundland

Burgeo—La Poile
Andrew Parsons (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Corner Brook
Gerry Byrne (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Humber—Gros Morne
Dwight Ball (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Humber—Bay of Islands
Eddie Joyce (Ind)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
St. Barbe—L’Anse aux Meadows
Chris Mitchelmore (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
St. George’s—Humber
Scott Reid (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Stephenville—Port au Port
John Finn (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election: Analysis, May 13, 2019

Our prediction update features another big swing towards the Progressive Conservatives. In 2015, there was a swing towards the Liberals of 32 percent, which is a wipeout adjustment just about anywhere. This time, depending on which polls you believe (or don’t), the swing back to the Progressive Conservatives could be in the neighbourhood of about 12 percent. That would not necessarily deliver government for Ches Crosbie, but it would put the Progressive Conservatives in a strong opposition. Crosbie’s team will no doubt be bolstered by the nearby victory of the PCs in Prince Edward Island less than a month ago. That has nothing to do with anything, of course.

To make our final prediction, in addition to reading the news to get a flavour for what Newfoundland and Labrador is thinking, we reviewed three opinion polls: MQO Research, Forum Research, and Abacus Data. Two of them have the Progressive Conservatives ahead, and one gives to the Liberals by a substantial margin. The average is a very narrow Liberal lead. No matter how you slice it, all deliver a sizable swing against the government, between seven and 16 points. The former will not upset the Dwight Ball government but the latter would.

We will see the Liberals lose seats. It’s a question of how many. The old saying goes that there is a first time for everything, but there is a reason we could not go all the way and put the PCs over the top: there has never been a one-term government in Newfoundland in 70 years of post-confederation history. In fact, governments tend to hang around for a long time. Now, with dissatisfaction about the direction of the province and in particular the economy, anything is possible. Yet, let’s look at past government longevity: Liberals 1949-1971, PCs 1971-1989, Liberals 1989-2003, PCs 2003-2015. For the Liberals to lose this election would be a real throwback to the pre-confederation days. Sure, it could happen, and I could find 20 bucks in my pants. Let’s just watch the results, which figure to be quite volatile.

2019 Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Election: Analysis, April 19, 2019

The Liberals are on track for a second majority government. They won in 2015 by such a wide margin that it would take a massive swing against to take them out of power.

Yet, while opinion polls have not been seen recently, there was enough there to suggest the Liberals will take a hit. An eight to ten-point swing will get the Liberals back, but a handful of close seats on the island will go to the other side. The worst-case scenario for the Liberals to start this process is a narrow majority government, depending on how big of a hit that is. For now, we predict they will come in close to where they were at dissolution, but with the PC caucus becoming a bit more mighty.

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