2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Predictions & Election Results

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election

This is your source for all things related to the 2019 Prince Edward Island provincial election.

Who will win the 2019 PEI election? If you said the Liberals, you may be on to something, but there’s time to determine that. Prince Edward Island is nothing if not consistent, and this is not a province that changes governments easily.

The current Liberal government, led now by Premier Wade MacLauchlan, was first taken into government by Robert Ghiz. That was almost 12 years ago, as of early 2019. Before that, the Progressive Conservatives and Pat Binns led PEI for almost 11 years, winning three elections in a row. When Islanders find a government they like, they stick with it for a while. PEI has elected a new party twice since 1996. Contrast this, for example, with Quebec, which has changed governments three times since 2012.

We may be coming to the end of a long Liberal run at Government House in Charlottetown, but don’t tell them that. Here’s the thing: it might not be the Progressive Conservatives that end their term, but the Greens, hoping to form their first provincial government in Canadian history. What will happen in this three-way race, where even a swing of five hundred votes or so can change the outcome?

(Before saying the above is outlandish, only 82,000 people voted in PEI’s last poll, and several seats were decided by 100 votes or less.)

Below, we will show you the playing field on the island as it is now and which party will win each seat.

Please note that on election day in Prince Edward Island, there will also be a referendum on amending the provincial voting system. Specifically, Islanders will be asked if they want to adopt a Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system as in New Zealand or Germany. Following New Brunswick’s election in 2018, we reviewed how the province’s results would have changed under proportional representation.

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Date

The election date was announced in March: it is being held April 23, 2019. See the Canadian election calendar for more on other provincial and federal elections this year.

It could have been called as late as October, but no way they were going to put it that close to Canada’s national election. This will be just one week after Alberta goes to the polls, and less than a month before Newfoundland and Labrador.

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election: Party Leaders

Wade MacLauchlan MLA (Liberal, Premier)
Dennis King (Progressive Conservative)
Peter Bevan-Baker MLA (Green)
Joe Byrne (New Democratic)

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election: Pre-Election Seat Breakdown

Liberal: 16
Progressive Conservative: 8
Green: 2
Independent: 1
Government Majority: 5

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Results

2019 Prince Edward Island Election results - seats

2019 Prince Edward Island Election results - votes

Results Maps

2019 Prince Edward Island Election results - map

2019 Prince Edward Island Election results - Charlottetown map

Prince Edward Island Electoral Reform Referendum

2019 Prince Edward Island Election referendum results - electoral reform

Referendum Results Maps

2019 Prince Edward Island Election referendum results - map

2019 Prince Edward Island Election referendum results - Charlottetown map

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Results Analysis

The Progressive Conservatives, short of a Green-Liberal deal, are back in power on Prince Edward Island after 12 years in obscurity. For the first time ever, the Green Party will form an official opposition on a provincial level. This is also the first-ever minority government in the history of the province, though in an interesting historical footnote, there was one tie in 1890.

By all standards we use today, 30 percent and eight seats is a tremendous result for the Greens. It only looks disappointing through the lens of the opinion polls, which had they ahead, some significantly, throughout the campaign. Only in the closing days did we get a sense of a building PC surge, which led us to bump our PC projection from six to 10 seats. They landed with 12, two short of a majority government.

On the legislature front, aside from the Progressive Conservative victory, the big story was Wade MacLauchlan’s defeat in Stanhope-Marshfield. He was in a close race with Bloyce Thompson (PC) all night, ultimately falling by 104 votes with the Greens in a respectable third. His loss was the coup de grâce for the Liberals, ousted after 12 years of majority governments and reduced to one-third of the total they won in 2015. Had MacLauchlan’s party not held firm in Charlottetown by winning a few local seats, it could have been a devastating night for the party. Even their “red wall” in the west was cracked with a surprising Liberal loss in Alberton-Bloomfield, and then again in Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke.

Referendum Results Analysis

While a majority of the island’s districts were pro-electoral reform, the popular vote was not. 17 districts needed to vote yes while also having a majority yes vote on the island as a whole; neither of those happened.

The “yes” vote was concentrated in the middle of the island, particularly around Charlottetown, in which it swept every riding. Not necessarily by a lot, by the way: Charlottetown-Belvedere was only a 28-vote margin, but Charlottetown-Victoria Park was almost a 1,000-vote gap.

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Overall Prediction

2019 Prince Edward Island Election prediction 4-19-19

PEI High-Low Seat Ranges

2019 Prince Edward Island Election seat ranges prediction 4-19-19

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Riding Predictions

Ridings have been numbered 1 through 27 by Elections PEI; they are shown in this numerical order below.

Souris-Elmira
Colin LaVie (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Georgetown-Pownal
Steven Myers (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Montague-Kilmuir
Allen Roach (Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: PC GAIN from Lib
Belfast-Murray River
Darlene Compton (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Mermaid-Stratford
Alan McIsaac (Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: PC GAIN from Lib
Actual: Grn GAIN from Lib
Stratford-Keppoch
James Aylward (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Morell-Donagh
Sidney MacEwen (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Stanhope-Marshfield
Buck Watts (Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: PC GAIN from Lib
Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park
Wade MacLauchlan (Lib) – Running in Stanhope-Marshfield
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Election Suspended – By-Election To Be Held
Charlottetown-Winsloe
Robert Mitchell (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Lib Hold
Charlottetown-Belvedere
Hannah Bell (Grn)
Prediction: Green Hold
Actual: Green Hold
Charlottetown-Victoria Park
Richard Brown (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Green GAIN from Lib
Charlottetown-Brighton
Jordan Brown (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Green GAIN from Lib
Charlottetown-West Royalty
Kathleen Casey (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Lib Hold
Brackley-Hunter River
Bush Dumville (Ind) – Running in Charlottetown-West Royalty
Prediction: PC GAIN from Ind
Actual: PC GAIN from Ind
Cornwall-Meadowbank
Heath MacDonald (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Actual: Lib Hold
New Haven-Rocky Point
Peter Bevan-Baker (Grn)
Prediction: Green Hold
Actual: Green Hold
Rustico-Emerald
Brad Trivers (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Borden-Kinkora
Jamie Fox (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Kensington-Malpeque
Matthew MacKay (PC)
Prediction: PC Hold
Actual: PC Hold
Summerside-Wilmot
Chris Palmer (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Summerside-South Drive
Tina Mundy (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke
Paula Biggar (Lib)
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Prediction: Green GAIN from Lib
Evangeline-Miscouche
Sonny Gallant (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold
O’Leary-Inverness
Robert Henderson (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold
Alberton-Bloomfield
Pat Murphy (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: PC GAIN from Lib
Tignish-Palmer Road
Hal Perry (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Analysis, April 19, 2019

We still have the Green Party on track for an historic election victory. Our final prediction keeps them at 12 seats, just two short of forming a majority government. The Green Party in its various global iterations has never won a provincial or state legislative election in North America. Prince Edward Island may be the first, but will Peter Bevan-Baker be handed a majority?

He could, but it’s far from certain. We see their high-water mark now at 15 with the PC vote doing better; several seats they may have snatched off of the Progressive Conservatives may now stay. Meanwhile, things look bleak for the governing Liberals, in power for 12 years. Their poll numbers are in steady decline and a few opinion polls suggest they could come in third. If that is the case, the Liberals could lose seats to both the Greens and PCs.

This is one of the most difficult elections we have had to predict so far since Electionarium’s launch in 2017. At least give us credit for being foolish enough to venture a guess on what will happen, when most others won’t.

Update, April 20, 2019: Sad news made its way to the PEI campaign trail as we learned of the tragic death of Green candidate Josh Underhay and his child on April 19. (Source: CBC News) Underhay was the Green candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park. The Green Party has suspended the remainder of their campaign while the Liberals, PCs, and NDP all suspended campaign activities on the 20th out of respect. We are not amending our prediction for District 9; we realize that this event could materially change the outcome of this seat, but as our own show of respect, we are leaving it as it is.

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Analysis, April 3, 2019

We can safely say that our PEI election predictions are all over the place. When a party goes from sub-ten percent to 35 or more, that’s a tidal wave. Where those new Green seats are going to pop is sometimes hard to tell. In this election, it may prove especially difficult outside of Charlottetown. In the island’s capital, we are confident that based off of current opinion polling trends, the Greens are going to have a good night. Should they make it to a majority, it will be thanks in large part to a number of new Green MLAs from Charlottetown. In fact, they will come close to sweeping the city, if not just straight-up doing that outright.

Beyond the limits of Charlottetown, it gets more interesting. There are also PC votes floating out there, but it’s not likely to be a huge migration of blue voters to the Green Party. They will lose some, but this Green support is coming off of the Liberals and what remains of the Island NDP. It’s going to cost the Liberals more than a handful of seats. Should they even come back and take first place, they are unlikely to win a majority save for a major set of missteps by the Greens in the next few weeks. For the first time in Canadian history, a provincial election appears to be the Greens’ to lose.

2019 Prince Edward Island Provincial Election Pre-Prediction Lowdown

The Greens number in opinion polling is the number to watch. Should they remain in the lead as they have been entering the spring of 2019, then they just might be the largest party in the next legislature.

If the Green surge takes place, where is it most likely to hit first? Look to Charlottetown, which is mostly red on the map right now and therefore seems like fertile ground for the left-wing Greens to take votes. The concern, if any, is if the PCs tick up a few points as well and they come up the middle in a few unexpected seats.

This campaign looks anything but ordinary, and therefore hard to predict, but exciting nonetheless.

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