The Grand Canyon State is one of growing importance as its population increases, and the 2020 Arizona House races could make a difference in the national bottom line.
We remember when Arizona had only six seats in the United States House of Representatives; it was not that long ago. Well, if the 90s weren’t that long ago to you, anyway. Now, Arizona is up to nine and will probably go to ten in time for the 2022 House races. People are moving to Arizona, making it a more important state. It was one that in a lot of ways had been Republican, but now, that is not necessarily the case. The days of Arizona having two Republican senators are over; soon, it might be two Democrats. The GOP also does not have a majority of the current house seats, and the state legislature is Republican, but narrowly. All this is by way of saying that Arizona is a more competitive state than some might realize, even though you’ve seen it colored in red every four years on election night.
How does that filter down into the House races? We are here to show you, with current election predictions for all of them. These will be updated from now until election day in 2020, which is still happening unlike the rest of everything this year.
US House Rating Scale
All 2020 races on Electionarium are graded on a 1-4 scale; there are no tossups.
2020 Arizona House Races Current Prediction Summary: August 10
Current Arizona US House Map
RATINGS CHANGE, OCT. 31: D1 TO D2
Geographically, this does not stick out as being a Democratic-leaning district; the more rural areas, you would assume would be Republican, but in the First District of Arizona, that is not correct. Ann Kirkpatrick and Tom O’Halleran, Democrats, have both represented this area in recent times. Considering this is a district Donald Trump might carry, there is some danger here for O’Halleran, but he got elected in 2016 against Trump’s ballot line (Trump won this district by a smaller margin than O’Halleran). This should be a relatively competitive race but may not be at the top of the GOP target list.
This is another district that, like the 1st District, has been Republican on the presidential level, even though Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. It is trending away from the Republicans – quickly – and seems like it should end up a Democratic hold.
The 3rd District is not the bluest seat in Arizona, but if it’s not, it’s probably the second-bluest. Democrats should not have much of an issue holding this seat.
Congressional districts in Arizona do not get much redder than the 4th District, which captures much of the western side of the state and loops around, but does not touch, Phoenix. This is a very Republican area and therefore will be a GOP hold in November.
Part of the problem Republicans had in 2018 was their loss of the suburbs around the country. That did not happen in the 5th District, which is centered on the Phoenix suburbs, including Mesa, Gilbert, and Chandler. Andy Biggs rode out the Blue Wave of 2018 in style and figures to get re-elected in a presidential election year.
RATINGS CHANGE: R2 to R1
August 10: In the spring, we felt okay about GOP chances in this usually-red district. Even though we still think they will win, look at what is happening all around David Schweikert in Arizona. Joe Biden might carry the state and Martha McSally is fighting to avoid a blowout loss. It is not all sunshine and rainbows for the GOP in Arizona in 2020, and the suburbs have been a particular challenge everywhere. However, Democrats did not get the job done in a wave election and will have to work even harder for a flip in 2020. While we regard this seat as being in play, we’re still a way off from calling it a flip.
March 29: More suburbs, this time to the northeast of Phoenix, and more of what we would consider fertile territory for Republican efforts. Trump did not do as well in the 6th District as, for example, Mitt Romney did, but still won. David Schweikert’s toughest run in the 6th District was in 2018 and he still won by double-digits. If the state trends blue, this district could be problematic in the future as presently constituted, but it seems like the GOP took the Democrats’ best punch in 2018 and still did not make it happen. This is somewhere in between a strong GOP lean and relatively safe.
Here we have a very urban, and very Democratic, seat. One could say with accuracy that it is the most Democratic congressional district in the state. This Phoenix-based seat will remain blue.
Arizona’s 8th District was the focus of a special election in 2018, one ultimately taken by the Republicans. Was it closer than it should have been, sure, but it was a sign of a coming wave. The number stabilized a little in the subsequent November general election. Lesko should be considered the favorite in this district, which is almost certain to be carried by Donald Trump.
This district takes in plenty of the suburbs around Phoenix, but also includes some of the capital city itself. Democrats have done well in the 9th District since its creation a decade ago and will continue to do so until the lines are redrawn in 2022.