We are right now all about the snap 2020 British Columbia election, taking place on October 24.
After Blaine Higgs, the New Brunswick premier with a minority government, gambled and won his majority, why wouldn’t John Horgan do the same?
No need to wonder, because Horgan, an NDP premier with a minority government, did.
Just two days before Saskatchewan heads to the polls, British Columbians will elect their own new provincial government. It is one that Horgan hopes will result in the NDP’s first majority since the 1990s. Meanwhile, the Liberals (who are in essence the centre-right option in the province), have governed most of the century to date, and just barely found themselves on the outs in 2017. They won a seemingly impossible victory in 2013, but could not repeat the task four years later. However, John Horgan’s NDP still sits a seat short of an overall majority. There is no doubt he is looking for it now.
We will let you know if they get it, or if the Liberals are due for a comeback. Electionarium predicts all 87 ridings, and you will never see a tossup here.
2020 British Columbia Election Party Leaders
John Horgan, the premier, is the only major party leader facing the voters for a second time. Andrew Wilkinson was elected Liberal leader in 2018 while Sonia Furstenau took her leadership just a few days before the election was called.
The BC Conservatives are led by Trevor Bolin.
2020 BC Election Results
Vote Count Results
The NDP won their expected large majority, taking 57 seats. This constituted the largest-ever win for the BC New Democrats. It was the first NDP majority victory since 1996.
Most of greater Vancouver turned orange, with the Liberals only holding onto a handful of seats in the metropolitan area. The Liberals were wiped out on Vancouver Island, being reduced to a party of the interior of British Columbia.
The Greens offset a loss on Vancouver Island with a seat on the mainland to the north of Vancouver. Otherwise, reports of their demise were exaggerated. The BC Conservatives and all independents failed to gain any seats in the legislature.
BC Election Riding-by-Riding Predictions and Results
Click on the table item below to jump to riding predictions in a particular region. Links will open in a new tab. Riding predictions are updated as necessary prior to the October 24 election.
Election Analysis, October 18
There is universal agreement amongst pundits and pollsters that the NDP is going to win the upcoming election. Its size is the only question left.
We could see the NDP getting up towards 60 seats if some of the interior seats we see as teetering fall. Otherwise, it’s hard to see them going below 50 seats given how good the polls have been for them.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are in for a nightmarish election night, but the campaign has not been that far off of it, either. Between Laurie Throness and the comments made about Bowinn Ma, not to mention trailing by double-digits across the board, this has been an election year to forget for the Liberals. The Greens need to be worried as well. While at this stage, we have them holding two seats, if the NDP does well enough, it could go down to zero. That would be a disappointment to be sure in a province where they had been doing well.
In Chillwack-Kent, we need to clarify. Laurie Throness is no longer a member of the BC Liberals, and will sit as an independent if elected, but he is already on the ballot as the Liberal candidate. However, we think Jason Lum, also an independent, will win. So, an independent is going to win either way, it’s just a matter of which one.
Election Analysis, September 24
British Columbia’s snap election starts with a favourable map and set of opinion polls for the governing NDP.
Three years ago, the NDP won fewer seats than the Liberals, but got propped up by the Greens and formed government. Something similar happened in New Zealand at around the same time: Labour won fewer seats than National, but a third party boosted the further-left contender into power.
Just like will happen in New Zealand again at about the same time this year, the government of the day will not need the help anymore following the election. We forecast a comfortable majority for the NDP based off of current polling (which, as we know, can also be quite wrong in this province). The Liberals won some close seats last time that they most likely will not this time on even a modest swing to the government, which should be enough to kick the majority to Horgan. They’re going to (at this point) win their majority in and around Vancouver, but how big the majority gets will depend on how they do in the interior. Expect the Liberals to still do quite well there, but we are predicting inroads for the NDP.