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United States Elections

2020 Connecticut House Races: Predictions and More

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2020 Connecticut House Races

Find out here who we predict will win the 2020 Connecticut House races.

The Nutmeg State, or the Constitution State, depending on your mood, is no bastion of Republican success these days. Back in the day, it was a different story, but that goes for many parts of New England. It seems like a distant memory, but not so long ago, the Republicans had 16 years of uninterrupted control of the governor’s mansion. In the early 2000s, Republicans had a majority of Connecticut’s five House seats. However, for more than a decade now, the Democrats have held them all. Democrats rule across state government, from the constitutional officers to the state legislature.

Sure, there have been close-but-no-cigar cases for the GOP in Connecticut in recent times. In fact, of the last three governors races in Connecticut, all won by Democrats, they were all decided by less than four-point margins. However, the House races have been marked by a decided lack of Republican success. In 2018, the best the GOP could do was lose a House race by 12 points, though we all know of the strong year Democrats had.

What will become of the five House incumbents running for re-election this year? We think we know the answers, and they are below.

US House Rating Scale

Here’s our chart showing how we rate the 2020 Connecticut House races. You will not see tossups here or anywhere.

Election Rating Chart

2020 Connecticut House Races Current Prediction Summary: April 11

2020 Connecticut House Races - 4-11-20 predictions

Current Connecticut US House Map

2020 Connecticut House Races - pre-election map

Connecticut-01

Connecticut-01 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe

The Democrats have held this Hartford-based seat since the 1950s. Incumbent John Larson has never won by less than double-digits and typically wins in landslides. He might be the safest incumbent in Connecticut, though it’s difficult to say any are not safe.

Connecticut-02

Connecticut-02 US House

Democratic Hold - Safe

Eastern Connecticut has had long stretches of Democratic representation, for those of us who remember Sam Gejdenson. Rob Simmons held the seat for the Republicans during most of the Bush 43 years, but it’s been Democratic ever since. Joe Courtney hasn’t had any difficult runs since he first gained the seat, but nobody saw Gejdenson’s loss in 2000 coming, either. Trump almost won this district in 2016, which tells you that it’s not as solid blue as the 1st, but Courtney should be fine here.

Connecticut-03

Connecticut-03 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe

Rosa DeLauro has been in Congress since as long as you, me, or anyone can remember. Here’s another seat Democrats have held, but for one brief interruption, since the 1950s and that is not changing now.

Connecticut-04

Connecticut-04 US House

Democratic Hold - Safe

In a way, it’s impressive that a Republican like Chris Shays held this seat as long as he did, but that’s manageable when you are one of the least conservative Republicans in Congress. Eventually, however, Shays’ luck ran out and he was defeated in this seat along Connecticut’s Gold Coast. Since then, Republicans have made a few spirited attempts to dislodge Jim Himes, but none successful. This does not seem like the year for their comeback in the 4th District, if it ever happens.

Connecticut-05

Connecticut-05 US House

Democratic Hold - Strong Lean

This is the least Democratic district in Connecticut – but it’s still Democratic. Ever since the 6th District was phased out, what few GOP votes existed in the state were chopped up among much more Democratic-leaning seats. That said, the Democrats have never cracked 60 percent in the 5th District since the map was redrawn again in 2012. There are definite pockets of Republican strength on the western and northwestern sides of Connecticut, such as Litchfield County, but this seat also digs into some more Democratic towns and cities near Hartford. Republicans fell short here in recent good years so while it will not be a runaway, the Democrats are not in bad shape.

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