This is your home base for predictions for the 2020 Delaware House race.
There is no question that Delaware is what we would consider a blue state. The last Republican presidential candidate to carry the state was George Bush in 1988, Democrats hold every statewide elected office, and are in charge in the state legislature. When Joe Biden tops the Democratic ticket in 2020, Delaware will maintain its deep shade of blue, but does that apply to the House race?
Believe it or not, given how Democratic the tilt of Delaware has been in recent times, they have only held the House seat for the past decade uninterrupted. Before that, Mike Castle, a Republican, was there since the early 1990s. During much of his term of office, Republicans had a fair amount of success in Delaware. Not a lot, but enough that they were viable as a political entity. If the GOP wants to get back on track, they will have a tough House race here against incumbent Lisa Blunt Rochester, who has been in office since the 2016 election.
US House Rating Scale
Here’s our chart showing how we rate the 2020 Delaware House race. You will not see a tossup; that’s just impossible on Electionarium.
2020 Delaware House Races Current Prediction Summary: April 12
Any other year we may have just classified the 2020 Delaware House race as “safe” rather than “very safe.” However, as we mentioned and you all know, the Biden factor atop the ticket will matter in Delaware more than anywhere else. There are going to be some down-ballot ripples that will secure Blunt Rochester, even though she would have won this race on her own.
There are only three counties in Delaware: New Castle, Kent, and Sussex. The further south you go, the redder Delaware is – but the lower the population. Blunt Rochester will clean up in New Castle County to the north, which includes bigger cities such as Wilmington, Newark, and Middletown. New Castle County is where it’s at, so to speak, and they will secure the incumbent another term.