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United States Elections

2020 Hawaii House Races: Predictions and More

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2020 Hawaii House Races

As if you don’t know, who will win the 2020 Hawaii House races?

Hawaii may be 50th admitted to the union, but they are first in the hearts of many. Clean air, warm weather, and beautiful beaches make this state out in the Pacific a destination. Some could say that the climate conditions in Hawaii are very homogeneous year-round. You could also say that the politics of Hawaii are consistent and unchanging.

When discussions are held about the “most Democratic” state in the country, some might say New York, others California, perhaps others Vermont or Rhode Island. The editors of this site, however, would say it’s Hawaii. Outside of two terms of Linda Lingle as the Republican governor, the state’s GOP has had almost nothing going on here for decades. It is, for all intents and purposes, a non-entity. Democrats hold 90-plus percent supermajorities in the legislature and hold every other office of note in Hawaii. Republican presidential candidates have carried the state just twice since statehood, both of which were 49-state landslides for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

All this is by way of saying that the Republicans are not going to do much in the 2020 Hawaii House races. The ratings below will reflect this.

US House Rating Scale

Here’s our chart showing how we rate the 2020 Hawaii House races. This website is free of tossups.

Election Rating Chart

2020 Hawaii House Races Current Prediction Summary: April 19

2020 Hawaii House Races - 4-19-20 predictions

Current Hawaii US House Map

2020 Hawaii House Races - pre-election map

Hawaii-01

Hawaii-01 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe

The 1st District of Hawaii is by far the more densely populated of the two seats, with its anchor being Honolulu. You have to go back a long way before you see a Republican winning a November general election here. This is not to say there has not been the occasional flare-up by the Republicans, and they did win a special election here in 2010 – because the Democratic vote split in two, but that’s another matter. Charles Djou is the only Republican candidate who’s been able to make the seat competitive in decades, and without him (as he quit the party altogether1), the GOP has no answers in this seat.

Hawaii-02

Hawaii-02 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe

Tulsi Gabbard upped her national profile within the last year, but at the end of the day, she still represents the good people of Hawaii’s 2nd District. Well, not for much longer, as she indicated previously that she is stepping down. Were she to get back in the race, she would win, but we’ll see. The Democrats will win this seat either way.

References

1: Star-Advertiser Staff, “Djou abandons Republican Party because of Trump,” Honolulu Star-Advertiser, March 19, 2018, https://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/03/19/breaking-news/djou-abandons-republican-party-because-of-trump/)

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