Here is the lowdown on the 2020 Indiana House races.
This Midwestern state is perhaps not the most exciting in terms of its politics. It does not have the reputation for shady politicians that its neighbor Illinois has. Further, it is not targeted as a swing state like their friends on the other side, Ohio. Nevertheless, the Hoosier State contributes 11 electoral votes and nine members of the US House, which in close elections can be key.
Will that be the case this year? At this time, we are not thinking so, but you never know. The better question to ask is if any of Indiana’s seats, of which the GOP holds a 7-2 majority, are bound to flip? It’s not like Indiana never elects Democrats, but let’s put it this way: this is not the first place Democrats are going to look for opportunities. Since the state voted for Barack Obama in 2008, it’s been all downhill from there, with the lone bright spot being Joe Donnelly’s one term in the Senate.
Why wait to see our Indiana House race ratings? They’re right down there.
US House Rating Scale
Here’s the chart showing how we rate your 2020 Indiana House races, without a tossup in sight.
2020 Indiana House Races Current Prediction Summary: July 12
Current Indiana US House Map
After many, many years in Congress, Pete Visclosky is hanging up his House voting card for good. Democrats do not have trouble in this seat which takes in all of Chicago’s Indianan suburbs. We expect that Visclosky’s successor will be another Democrat.
We’re not quoting or paraphrasing Tom Jones, but it’s not unusual for Democrats to compete in this district. After all, there’s a large Democratic city in this district whose mayor ran for president and contains a big college. Republican wins here since Jackie Walorski got in have not been massive, but they have been consistent. She is not quite safe but probably fine.
It is rare for Democrats to succeed in this district, which is and has been red. Republicans are not concerned about this race for Jim Banks.
Jim Baird is in very good shape here, coming from a seat that’s been Republican since it was designed in the last round of redistricting.
RATINGS CHANGE, JULY 12: R2 TO R1
July 12: Back in April, before many things happened in the American political scenery, we had this as a “strong lean” with a possibility of going “safe” if the poll numbers for Victoria Spartz (R) stabilized. Well, they’ve not done that, and the Democrats think they have a chance here. All we have here in July is one Democratic poll showing that this could flip. Here, we try not to react to every poll and make our predictions shifts slowly. However, this seat has some suburban character, and the GOP is doing poorly there all over the country. We are not prepared based off of one partisan poll to say this one is a flip, but for reasons beyond this poll, we have reason to suspect this seat may be unexpectedly problematic for the Republicans.
April 26: This race may only be competitive in that it is an open seat election, with Susan Brooks stepping down. Going back from the days of Dan Burton, Republicans have not had much in the way of trouble in the Indianapolis suburbs. 2018 was Brooks’ closest race, but even then, she won by a comfortable margin. Putting this in the “strong lean” category for now is a nod that there is no incumbent, but this may end up reclassifying as “safe” before November, depending on the prevailing national winds.
When Mike Pence and the guy above him on the ticket carry Indiana again in 2020, his brother, Greg Pence, will get re-elected in his old seat. Pence taking the L here would be unthinkable, hence “very safe.”
Andre Carson notched his biggest win in 2018, but he’s been held under 60 percent in this Indianapolis seat a few times. Do we think that he’s in any danger, no.
It’s not like Democrats never won here, but it seems like those days are in the past. They gained this seat in their 2006 midterm wave, but lost by almost 30 points in the most recent Blue Wave. This district is a statement to how, as we mentioned right at the beginning, Indiana has become a lot less competitive over the past 10 years.
This seat has flipped a couple times since George W. Bush got into office, but the GOP won it back in 2010 and have held it ever since. In a perfect year for Democrats, they might compete here, but again, whatever Democratic tendencies Indiana had are being rooted out, so we would not count on Trey Hollingsworth going anywhere for now.