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United States Elections

2020 Louisiana House Races: Predictions and More

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2020 Louisiana House Races

This is your official primer for the 2020 Louisiana House races, complete with predictions of all six House races.

Like many states in the South, there is an ancestral Democratic history that runs through Louisiana. Democrats still in essence ran this state about 15 years ago, even when George W. Bush was carrying the state twice. As recently as the 1980s, the Democrats held almost every seat in the state legislature. Yet, we know what happened to Democrats in the South starting sometime around the start of Bush 43’s election to the White House.

While the Louisiana US House map is an ugly one in terms of district shapes, it’s not like Democrats would be much more successful under drastically different lines. The Democratic Blue Wave of 2018 did not wash over the Pelican State as every GOP incumbent won with plenty of room to spare, which is just as much a testament to shapes of the districts as to how the state has changed. Total Republican votes far outplaced total Democratic votes statewide. Further, this is a state about to vote for the Trump-Pence ticket again and re-elect its Republican senator.

As they do in every election, Louisiana starts off with a “jungle primary.” Should no candidate get an outright majority in November, it goes to a runoff in December. However, all six incumbents blew away the competition in 2018, meaning no runoffs. What will happen to those seeking re-election in 2020?

Please note that according to the Louisiana Secretary of State, candidate filing for Congress is open until July 17. As candidates enter the race, ratings below may change.

And a second “please note:” the percentages shown below represent the total Republican or Democratic vote in a district during the November 2018 jungle primary.

LA US House Rating Scale

Here’s the chart showing how we rate your 2020 Louisiana House races, without tossups.

Election Rating Chart Louisiana US House

2020 Louisiana House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 2

2020 Louisiana House Races - 5-2-20 predictions

Current Louisiana US House Map

2020 Louisiana House Races - pre-election map

Louisiana-01

Louisiana-01 US House

Republican Hold - Very Safe LA-01

Steve Scalise has not drawn any competition as of the start of May, and it will not make a difference even if he does. Republicans are all but untouchable in this district.

Louisiana-02

Louisiana-02 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe LA-02

This district was drawn to rope in as many Democratic voters as possible between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. It does, and Cedric Richmond is safe, if he even faces opposition at all.

Louisiana-03

Louisiana-03 US House

Republican Hold - Safe LA-04

It’s a struggle to see how anyone other than a Republican, Clay Higgins specifically, wins this seat. This is Trump country and the Republicans have held the seat with little difficulty.

Louisiana-04

Louisiana-04 US House

Republican Hold - Very Safe LA-04

Mike Johnson has yet to face a challenger in 2020, though it’s the same story: he would have won, anyway.

Louisiana-05

Louisiana-05 US House

Republican Hold - Safe LA-05

The 5th District is the only seat in Louisiana where there appears to be some action in 2020. Ralph Abraham is standing down after losing the governor’s race in 2019, leaving the seat open for the taking. A number of Republicans are considering taking the plunge, but we must wait and see how the field develops. This could be the only of the 2020 Louisiana House races to go to a runoff, but once it gets there, the GOP will win. A split GOP field may help get a Democrat in the runoff, but that’s about as far as they will get here.

Louisiana-06

Louisiana-06 US House

Republican Hold - Very Safe LA-06

Garret Graves is in no particular danger, and what a surprise: another Louisiana seat where we see no opposing candidates, but there’s time until the filing deadline.

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