Here come the 2020 Massachusetts House races’ predictions. As if you don’t know already.
Massachusetts is not a chief offender these days, but the commonwealth does have some weird district lines. Most politically-minded residents of the state, for example, would not be able to explain by two dissimilar and not-close places like Newton and Fall River are in the same district.
Nevertheless, this is one of the most reliable Democratic states in the country, with its one political anomaly being that they often elect Republican governors. That Democratic trend is perhaps most notable on the congressional level, where Democrats are 116-0 in US House races in the Bay State since 1996, and the GOP has only won one Senate race here beyond 1972.
You know and I know how these House races will end, but we are going through the exercise of reviewing all nine seats because that’s what we do here.
MA US House Rating Scale
The 2020 Massachusetts House races are rated on the below tossup-free scale.
2020 Massachusetts House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 3
Current Massachusetts US House Map
The Berkshires are like the Boston area in that they would be, in general, the last two regions of the commonwealth to go from blue to red. Consider also that this district sweeps east into Springfield, a very Democratic city by itself. Republicans have no chance here even if they run a candidate.
This is a district in which there are definite pockets of Republican success in smaller towns. The problems for the Republicans are twofold: Worcester and Amherst. Both of those cities will more than wipe out whatever an upstart GOP contender could cobble together elsewhere. Not to mention, Jim McGovern specifically has been around for a long while and only on rare occasion has he had his vote share held down.
The Republicans are not running anyone in this Lowell-based seat, meaning the 2018 primary rematch is the main event.
We have an open seat here with Joe Kennedy running for Senate, and again, there are a few towns here and there which are not averse to supporting Republicans at times. The story of Massachusetts is that those towns are often overwhelmed by places like Newton, Wellesley, Brookline, and Fall River. The GOP did not bother last time and a wide Democratic field beat each other up to get their hands on this seat. Ultimately, Jake Auchincloss won the Democratic nomination and will be elected in November.
The odds of a Republican winning a seat that includes parts of Cambridge are about the same as the Green Party winning the Alabama governor’s race.
Seth Moulton’s district used to be Republican way back in the day, and the GOP has not always made Democratic lives easy in the 6th in the last decade. However, if we are being honest with ourselves, Moulton is not in any real danger.
Ayanna Pressley is on her way to an unopposed re-election run.
For the time being, Stephen Lynch will only face opposition in his own primary, but the general election is smooth sailing. Republicans would not have much chance here, anyway.
RATINGS CHANGE, SEPT. 10: D4 TO D3
SEPT. 10: It’s not that the GOP has a chance here – they don’t – but this is the lease Democratic seat in the state in a lot of ways. There is a Republican opponent to Keating on the ballot, so it does not deserve a level four “very safe” status. This is all for bookkeeping purposes; the Democrats will hold it.
MAY 3: With the way things stand in 2020, this is the least Democratic district in the state, so why is it “very safe?” Simple: there are no non-Democratic candidates running as of May 3.