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United States Elections

2020 Minnesota House Races: Predictions and More

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2020 Minnesota House Races

Here’s where we tell you what is going to happen in the 2020 Minnesota House races.

Minnesota was just about the weirdest state in the 2018 US House elections. Four seats out of eight flipped in the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes last time out, two going one way and two going another. Out of any state that could throw the Republicans a bone (despite also taking a few seats away from them), you wouldn’t expect it to be blue Minnesota. In fact, Minnesota had two out of the three Democrat-to-Republican flips in the country in that election.

The question is for all of these incumbents is if they will hold onto the seats they just won two years ago. Yet, they are not the only ones questioning their positions, as there may be more than just those four seats in play this time. How are these races going to go, you ask? Well, they can’t get much wilder than they did last time, and we’ll do the best we can to predict.

MN US House Rating Scale

The 2020 Minnesota House races are rated on the below chart, which includes no tossups; that’s the Electionarium promise.

Election Rating Chart MN

2020 Minnesota House Races Current Prediction Summary: September 10

2020 Minnesota House Races - 9-10-20 predictions

Current Minnesota US House Map

2020 Minnesota House Races - pre-election map

Minnesota-01

Minnesota-01 US House

Republican Hold - Weak Lean MN-01

This was one of the closest House races in the country in 2018, and one of two Republican gains in Minnesota on election night. We could be in for a rematch of that race that Jim Hagedorn won when Tim Walz left to run for governor. Our rating gives the nod to Hagedorn due to incumbency, and it’s not like Republicans never have success here, anyway, for those who remember Gil Gutknecht.

Minnesota-02

Minnesota-02 US House

Democratic Hold - Strong Lean MN-03

RATINGS CHANGE: D1 to D2

August 10: The GOP does not seem to be particularly competitive here this time.  If they are going to put effort into flipping a seat, it will be the 7th, which Trump will carry regardless of who wins the state or presidential election.  The suburbs have betrayed the GOP recently and a flip back here in 2020 would be a mild shock.  As noted in May, we’re still not thinking landslide or any such thing, but a comfortable win looks more possible.

May 9: Angie Craig took this seat out of GOP hands in 2018, and it was a relatively close race in the Minneapolis southeastern suburbs. This is a very nominally Republican seat on the presidential level so if you were to figure the GOP has a chance here, you are correct. It was a GOP seat for almost 20 years before Craig won. While she should be considered the favorite to win re-election, Craig winning in a cakewalk this time would be a surprise.

Minnesota-03

Minnesota-03 US House

Democratic Hold - Strong Lean MN-03

Of the two Democratic flips this state produced in 2018, this was the more convincing of them. Erik Paulsen was in big trouble here from the beginning as this district has gotten less Republican over time. Dean Phillips won by 11 points and given that Joe Biden is likely to carry the district with some margins, we tend not to believe in a GOP comeback around here this time.

Minnesota-04

Minnesota-04 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe MN-04

Betty McCollum has represented St. Paul’s side of the Twin Cities for almost two decades. As long as she keeps primary challengers in line, she will continue to win here.

Minnesota-05

Minnesota-05 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe MN-05

Ilhan Omar will face a primary challenge in her Minneapolis seat, but we’re concerned with general elections. Democrats will win this seat with ease regardless of their nominee.

Minnesota-06

Minnesota-06 US House

Republican Hold - Safe MN-06

This is the safest Republican seat in Minnesota, and the one that elected Michele Bachmann four times. Since she left, GOP margins have increased and Tom Emmer won this seat by over 20 points during the Blue Wave.

Minnesota-07

Minnesota-07 US House

Republican Gain - Weak Lean

RATINGS CHANGE, SEPT. 10: D1 TO R1 (FLIP)

SEPT. 10: Collin Peterson is in trouble.  Trump is going to win his district by a sizable margin, and his long service to the region might not be enough to save him this time.  If he wins, he will do so just barely.

MAY 9: It doesn’t matter how long Collin Peterson has been around in this district (almost 30 years): he represents one of America’s reddest districts to be held by a Democrat in Congress. His wins have been because of his name. Assuming the GOP does not pick him off at some point, as soon as he steps down, this seat is going red. The Republicans have recruited well here this time, however, with former lieutenant governor Michelle Fischbach running. Peterson has survived GOP wave elections before but his margins are getting closer in general. He may get re-elected in 2020 by another narrow margin, but the dam will eventually break on this seat for the Democrats.

Minnesota-08

Minnesota-08 US House

Republican Hold - Strong Lean

RATINGS CHANGE, SEPT. 10: R1 TO R2

SEPT. 10: Whereas a sharp Trump vote will hurt an incumbent in the 7th, it should help one in the 8th.  Trump will win Peterson’s district by more than Stauber’s, but it’s tough to see the Democrats flipping the seat while losing the presidential race by double digits here.

MAY 9: Here was the other GOP flip in Minnesota of 2020, a seat they have won intermittently in northeastern Minnesota over the past decade. The trend around here is Republican. Maybe not by a lot, and you can argue this district is less Republican than the 7th except for its congressman, but it’s getting there. Pete Stauber is probably not going to lose if Donald Trump runs up a big score here again, but for now we will entertain the idea of this being a competitive race.

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