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United States Elections

2020 Mississippi House Races: Predictions and More

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2020 Mississippi House Races

Time to make our predictions for the four 2020 Mississippi House races.

Mississippi is known to many as the Magnolia State, and to others as the home of the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night. For the purposes of the 2020 US House elections, you can refer to it as the state that competitive races forgot. There are going to be four members of the House of Representatives elected, and unlike Iowa, which could see all four of its seats competitive, Mississippi will be the opposite.

Why is that? Start with the idea that Mississippi is in general a red state, but not red all over. In the parts of Mississippi where they vote Republican, they do so in big numbers. Yet, in the Delta Region, those counties (which almost all happen to be in one particular district) are very blue. Mississippi has been in political stasis when it comes to its House races for about a decade. Believe it or not, going into the 2010 Tea Party wave election, Democrats held three out of Mississippi’s four seats. Since then, they’ve been down to just one and with no real prospects of adding to their total. The latest wave election in 2018 favored Democrats, but did not come close to dislodging the GOP anywhere.

So, despite the fact that the 2020 Mississippi House races are a foregone conclusion, we are adding these seats to the big totals. You can see below just how safe these seats all are.

MS US House Rating Scale

Your 2020 Mississippi House races have no tossups, just the chart below for ratings.

Election Rating Chart MS

2020 Mississippi House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 9

2020 Mississippi House Races - 5-9-20 predictions

Current Mississippi US House Map

2020 Mississippi House Races - pre-election map

Mississippi-01

Mississippi-01 US House

Republican Hold - Very Safe MS-01

Trent Kelly has yet to have a difficult race in the northeastern part of Mississippi, which favors Republicans. The 1st District has been Republican almost all of the last 25 years. Kelly is not in danger.

Mississippi-02

Mississippi-02 US House

Democratic Hold - Very Safe MS-02

Nobody in Mississippi’s Senate or House seats serving today has been around longer than Bennie Thompson, the Delta’s representative since the early 1990s. The GOP hasn’t laid a glove on him, well, ever. Thompson has never won an election by less than double digits. He happens to be insulated in the sole very Democratic area of Mississippi, so this seat (if configured the same) will be Democratic with or without him.

Mississippi-03

Mississippi-03 US House

Republican Hold - Safe MS-03

Michael Guest is the newest member of Congress from Mississippi, taking over an open GOP seat in 2018. His district includes the parts east of Jackson that we all watched during the GOP primary for governor in 2019, being that they are big Republican areas. The 3rd District slides southwest into some counties that are less Republican, but they are overwhelmed by the GOP portions.

Mississippi-04

Mississippi-04 US House

Republican Hold - Very Safe MS-04

Steven Palazzo is unopposed in this Gulf Coast seat, so you will see him back in Congress in 2021.

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