How do we think the 2020 Missouri House races are going to go?
The Show-Me State is one that used to be considered a bellwether. They could go red, they could go blue, but when John McCain carried it in 2008 despite Barack Obama’s national landslide, that was the end of that. Republicans have not looked back in this state since then, and they now have almost every office of consequence in the state. This is in addition to sizable majorities in the state legislature and, of course, a 6-2 edge in the state’s US House delegation. Missouri will also elect a governor this year, and the Republicans are favored there as well.
Does Missouri still have a Democratic undercurrent somewhere in this red state? Yes, but it’s been masked for at least the last few years with the GOP on its best hot streak ever since statehood. What does that mean for the eight House races in this state? Read on and we’ll tell you.
MO US House Rating Scale
The 2020 Missouri House races get rated this way, without any tossups.
2020 Missouri House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 9
Current Missouri US House Map
This is the most Democratic district in the state by a mile. St. Louis hasn’t had a Republican represent it in Congress since let’s say the days that Milton Berle ruled TV. With or without Clay, who lost his primary, the Democrats are not going to worry about this seat at all.
RATINGS CHANGE: R2 to R1
August 10: We are less positive about Ann Wagner’s position now and think, at best, she is in for another scare in 2020. If you believe that the Democrats’ triumph and subsequent Republican meltdown in the suburbs in 2018 was not an isolated incident, then this seat is in play. It would not surprise us to see Wagner just hanging on in November.
May 9: Democrats went into this 2018 race in Missouri’s 2nd District believing they had a chance. That proved somewhat accurate, as it was a close race, but Republican Ann Wagner survived a scare. It’s not surprising given how the suburbs swung against the GOP in 2018. Nevertheless, this seat has been in GOP hands for decades. Wagner outpaced Trump in the last presidential election year but she took a big hit in the midterms. We think for the time being she may be in for somewhat of a bounceback performance on presidential turnout.
The 3rd District is going to go for Trump in a big way in November, not that Blaine Luetkemeyer needed his help in order to get re-elected here.
Previous iterations of this district were in Democratic hands for decades. Once Vicky Hartzler upset old-school moderate Democrat Ike Skelton, her district became much more Republican-friendly thereafter and she hasn’t broken a sweat since redistricting.
This is the only seat in Missouri, other than the 1st District, in which the Democrats can expect any sustained success. The thing is, while Democrats are safe here, sometimes the margins are not as big as you would expect. Not that winning by 20 points or so is a bad thing if you are a Democratic candidate. They have little to worry about here.
Sam Graves’ district clips the Kansas City area and then sweeps across the entire northern border of the state. When it does, it picks up a lot of Republican votes along the way. We have seen the suburbs swing against the GOP in the last few years, but when it comes to the cities north and east of Kansas City, that has not happened to Sam Graves so far. He is on his way to another win.
The Republicans are working on about 60 years holding this seat, and there is no reason to believe Billy Long is going to lose it now. Springfield and Branson will continue to be in the red column.
Of all the right-leaning districts in the Great State of Missouri, this one might best them all. Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by about a 3-to-1 margin, so you can imagine that Jason Smith will not be losing much sleep over his re-election chances.