United States Elections

2020 Nebraska 2nd District House Race Preview

2 Mins read
2020 Nebraska 2nd District House Race Preview

What will happen in the 2020 Nebraska 2nd District House race?

If it’s anything like the last several, it will be close. That’s all this district does in recent times: produce close races. We will see one at the presidential level when it comes to the electoral vote here, but the US House race will be a barnburner as well. Control of the House will not rest on this unless the GOP should suddenly find itself reversing massive 2018 losses, but it’s important nevertheless.

Don Bacon (R) is the representative here, and has been since the 2016 election. Only one House race out of the last seven in the Nebraska 2nd has been decided by double digits. Bacon is no stranger to the close race, either, as both of his wins have been by narrow margins. He will face his 2018 opponent, Kara Eastman (D), again this time. The incumbent congressman has had a center-right voting record over his four years in Congress, while Eastman hails from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Can a progressive Democrat win in the 2nd District of Nebraska? One almost did in 2018, and she is trying again. See our primer on this race right here.

The 2020 Nebraska 2nd District House Race in 2 Minutes

2020 Candidates for the 2nd District

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Don Bacon (R)Incumbent US Representative (2017-)
Kara Eastman (D)2018 US House nominee in NE-02
Tyler Schaeffer (Lbt)

The Lowdown on Nebraska-02

The 2020 Nebraska 2nd District House race is going to come down to Douglas County, which contains Omaha. Eastman carried Douglas in 2018 by a narrow margin, and despite it making up the vast majority of the district’s votes, it was not enough to offset Bacon’s big margins in Sarpy County. In our video, we go into what we think each candidate has to do in order to win the election.

A question to consider is this: if Kara Eastman could not win this seat during a Blue Wave election, what makes us think she will do it now? One counterpoint may be that Joe Biden has narrowly led in the polls in the 2nd District of Nebraska and may help pull her over the finish line. However, winning one-run games is a key statistic in baseball. If the Republicans in the 2nd District were a baseball team, they would win a lot of one-run games – which is to say, they get in a lot of close races but win most of them. Eastman is close to getting over the hump, but can she do it?

Our current prediction is a Republican hold (weak lean). You can see all three Nebraska House predictions as well as all 435 House race updates here on Electionarium.

OTHER 2020 RACE PREVIEWS: Arizona US Senate | South Carolina US Senate | Virginia-07 US House

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