How do we predict the 2020 Nevada House races will go?
The Silver State is one of America’s fastest-growing, and political observers who aren’t that old probably remember when this state had just two House seats. That number has since doubled to four, and the Democrats hold most of them today. Nevada has been equal opportunity in voting for either Republicans or Democrats, but in recent presidential elections, they are trending blue. This was observed at the lower levels of government in Nevada in 2018, with Democrats picking up a Senate seat, the governor’s seat, and holding three of four US House seats. Just one remaining statewide elected official is a Republican.
What will the 2020 Nevada House races bring? Well, if it’s anything like the last couple election cycles, it may not be such good news for the Republicans, but this is why you count the votes.
Our predictions for Nevada’s members of Congress are situated below.
NV US House Rating Scale
The 2020 Nevada House races are rated on this scale. You will not see tossups anywhere on our website, because they’re not going to be “tossups” when the votes are counted.
2020 Nevada House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 9
Current Nevada US House Map
Dina Titus represents the heart of Las Vegas, which is about as Democratic a seat as you will get in Nevada. Just one Republican has ever won this district, and as the population increases, it compresses in size, and becomes more urban, GOP chances disappear. This is the safest seat in the state for either party.
Northern Nevada is fertile ground for the GOP. Mark Amodei wins by enough in a typical year that we would call him safe. Did we mention that the 2nd District, which has existed since the 1980s, has never been won by a Democrat? It used to cover the whole state outside of Las Vegas and now is much further north, but it’s safe.
The southern Las Vegas suburbs and southern tip of Nevada has given chances to both Republicans and Democrats in its day. Despite holding the open seat for the Democrats in 2018, Susie Lee still got just 52 percent in a good Democratic year. There’s an interesting collection of Republicans looking to take the seat back, but Lee is the favorite as the incumbent.
Nevada’s 4th District is a new creation, having only been a thing since the 2012 House elections. Each term it has existed, it elected someone different to the House than the election prior. In 2018, they sent back Steven Horsford, the one-term Democrat who was in 2012 and out 2014. His district is Democratic in a nominal sense: Hillary Clinton won it but not by that much, and fact, nobody has won the House races here by all that much, either. This is the sort of district that could swing in a wave election going the other way, but since we think this is going to be a good Democratic year, we like Horsford’s chances.