How do we expect the 2020 New Hampshire House races to go?
The Live Free or Die State shifts with the blowing winds of political change. After all, this is a state that has seen its own House of Representatives change hands five times since the mid-2000s. In the 1st District of New Hampshire, the same two people traded election wins on five occasions between 2006 and 2016. Carol Shea-Porter (D) had three stints in the US House, while Frank Guinta (R) had two non-consecutive terms to interrupt her. Meanwhile, its 2nd District changed hands a few times in that period as well, but has been a little more stable for one party.
New Hampshire is not a solid blue state and it is also not as red as it was back in the day when all four people they sent to Washington were Republicans. That was not very long ago, either.
So, heading into the 2020 contests, a year (like half the others) in which they will elect a governor, do we expect New Hampshire to flop around with the prevailing breeze, or are the two House Democratic incumbents in decent shape to get back? We have made our two predictions below for your review.
NH US House Rating Scale
Your 2020 New Hampshire House races are rated on the below tossup-free scale.
2020 New Hampshire House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 16
Current New Hampshire US House Map
Chris Pappas kept this open seat in Democratic hands in 2018, and in 2020, this does not feel like a high-profile race. Republicans are never that far out of the mix in this district but in the current political environment, it is unlikely that this is a serious flip opportunity for the GOP.
Annie Kuster never wins this seat in a landslide and yet, we have her safe. The GOP slate of candidates in this district isn’t that deep and despite 10-point wins being essentially her ceiling, it’s a Democratic climate and this race is too far under the radar for anyone to notice it.