Time to make the predictions for the three 2020 New Mexico House races.
When you think of New Mexico, what comes to mind? (We ask this as non-residents of the Land of Enchantment.) The Rocky Mountains, desert landscapes, and a significant Hispanic population are a few items that arise. Oh, and that this is a blue state with some red pockets. In addition to losing the governorship in 2018, the problem for the GOP is that they did not win any House seats, either, even though one district is fairly Republican in nature. Once upon a time, they were competitive in all of New Mexico’s seats and had Heather Wilson winning the Albuquerque area for a while. Those days are now in the past, but the GOP has designs on getting one of those seats back.
Will it happen? You’ll have to read on to see our specific predictions, but now this: the political climate is not making it easy, but it is doable.
NM US House Rating Scale
With no need or use for tossups, we have rated the 2020 New Mexico House races on this scale.
2020 New Mexico House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 16
Current New Mexico US House Map
While it used to be red until about 10 years or so ago, this just isn’t a competitive seat anymore for the GOP. Deb Haaland starts this campaign out as a clear favorite for re-election.
Xochitl Torres Small is one of the most endangered House incumbents in the country in 2020. This is one of the more Republican-leaning seats to have flipped in the midterm elections and Torres Small will have to work very, very hard to keep her seat. We will see how the bitter GOP primary plays out first.
Northern New Mexico has been in Democratic hands since the district’s creation in the 1980s, but for a brief interruption. This is another reliable seat for the Democrats and one in which Republicans will make a minimal effort.