What do we make of the 2020 Oklahoma House races?
The Sooner State produced one of the most major upsets in the 2018 Blue Wave by giving its 5th District to the Democrats, despite the Republican incumbent holding a consistent and fairly large lead in the polls. All eyes will be on Kendra Horn and her seat again this time around, with Democrats wondering if they can hold on in one of the reddest states in the country. Donald Trump carried the 5th District in 2016, but by a smaller margin than Republicans typically got. Nevertheless, Horn will be the lone blue buoy trying to survive in a red tide.
As for the rest of Oklahoma, we would be lying if we told you it’s exciting in terms of its House races. It is not. Then again, few thought in 2018 that there would be any interesting House races in Oklahoma.
How do we think Oklahoma is going to split its House seats up this time? The spoiler is that it will either be 4 to 1 or 5-zip. See our predictions below, which are subject to change between now and the November election.
OK US House Rating Scale
This scale shows how we are rating the 2020 Oklahoma House races at Electionarium, without a tossup to be seen.
2020 Oklahoma House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 23
Current Oklahoma US House Map
The 1st District, specifically the Tulsa area, has been red for decades. Democrats will be pouring their Oklahoma efforts into keeping the 5th District, not trying to pry away difficult seats like this.
Markwayne Mullin is well on his way to another win without much opposition.
There’s “red” and then there’s Frank Lucas’s seat. Donald Trump and Lucas will in this district by impressive margins.
Yes, this is the district where Joe Exotic’s former zoo is. We are going to mention it because while that’s interesting, this race will not be.
Kendra Horn’s win in 2018 was a miracle, to put it in simple terms. On paper, it would be quite easy for the GOP to win it back. However, elections do not take place on paper and based on that, Kendra Horn would have never been competitive in her seat in the first place. Initial indications are that it could be about as good of a Democratic year as it was in 2018, and if that’s the case, the incumbent may get by again. Democrats know that if they win the 2020 presidential election and Republican angst grows in a 2022 midterm, this seat will be one of the first to go, but they’ll cross that bridge if or when they come to it. The bottom line is that it’s too early to tell if Horn is going to lose, but we suspect the answer will become clear in time.