Find out our seat-by-seat predictions for the 2020 Queensland election, being held on 31 October. Who will win this time?
Queensland votes for its state government every three years. We knew this one was coming in 2020, a year of great global upheaval, and Queensland was not spared the wrath of COVID-19. The policies of the Labor government of Annastacia Palaszczuk will be at issue, and it’s up to us to predict how Queenslanders appraise the last five years of her leadership, as well as more recent developments.
93 seats are at stake in the election, with 47 required for a majority. Palaszczuk got that majority in 2017 by a single seat while the Liberal National Party disappointed. (Nothing will ever be as big a disappointment to them as 2015, however.) Here, we take you into all 93 seats to cobble together our predictions, which will be updated between now and election day.
2020 Queensland Election Party Leaders
Annastacia Palaszczuk will be leading Labor into an election for a third time. This will be Robbie Katter’s second election as leader of his father’s party, while Deb Frecklington makes her first run in 2020.
2020 Queensland Election Results
Final Vote Results
Click on the Queensland area or region below to be taken to a list of electorates with our current predictions. All 93 seats are listed in these files, and clicking a link will open a new tab.
|Seat Predictions||Actual Results|
|NORTH OF BRISBANE|
|SOUTH OF BRISBANE & GOLD COAST|
|WEST OF BRISBANE|
Election Analysis, 29 October
The good news for the LNP: Seats to the north are swinging their way and they could make sizable gains if things lock into place for them.
The bad news for the LNP: The swing is going against them in Southeastern Queensland, where most of the seats are, and they stand to lose seats even in their bread and butter region of the Gold Coast.
The overall result doesn’t see many seats shifting in terms of the net, but we’ve actually got quite a few flips on the board underneath those numbers. Among them are two gains for the Greens in Brisbane, being South Brisbane and McConnel. The former is practically a lock, while the latter has come on strong in the campaign.
Oodgeroo is not on the list of them, where a strong independent is challenging. While the odds of a flip are respectable, that LNP margin might be a little too big to overturn. Some in media have noted parallels to Tony Abbott’s loss in 2019 in a similar seat, and we did not pick against the Coalition there. Maybe we should here…
When the campaign started, the 2PP numbers were more favourable to the LNP than they are now. Labor is holding on somewhere around 51 to 52 percent, which should get them home, but not without opposing swings in different parts of the state.
Election Analysis, 26 September
The 2017 Queensland election was the first Australian election that this website, Electionarium, ever predicted. Though in our final numbers, we came around to a Labor majority not too unlike what actually happened, our initial prediction was a tie between the ALP and LNP. To quote the great Yogi Berra, it’s like déjà vu all over again. Yet, will we come back to a Labour win by the time 31 October comes around? Time will tell, but there are a few things in Labor’s favour: Annastacia Palaszczuk has reasonably good job approval numbers for her handling of COVID-19 and there does not appear to be an overwhelming sentiment for change. Some, perhaps, after five years of Labor government (and most of the last 30 years), but how deep can it be in the middle of a pandemic?
That’s the real question, but just because a government happens to be in power during this situation does not mean the public wants to keep them. The United States may see a change in its presidency in November and were a British general election coming soon, it might go poorly for the Tory government. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s marks have not always been positive, but in recent times, they seem to be. Will her personal popularity translate into a win? Deb Frecklington is of course a factor herself, but this election will be a referendum on Palaszczuk.
We cannot ignore the fact that the LNP is ahead in the two-party preferred sweepstakes in recent polling. We are also uncomfortable giving them any notable gains outside of the north just yet. With One Nation and the Greens both possibly pulling down over 10 percent of the primary vote again, we could have some strange and unpredictable results in more than a few electorates.