Announcing the Electionarium predictions for the 2020 Rhode Island House races.
This may be the last time we get to say House races (plural) when it comes to Rhode Island. The nation’s smallest state, according to population estimates by the United States Census Bureau, has been passed in population by Montana. Therefore, the conventional wisdom is that Montana is going to get Rhode Island’s second seat when 2022 reapportionment hits1. So, while Little Rhody might be down to one seat the next time we do a piece like this, for now, they still elect two members of the US House of Representatives.
Figuring out who those two individuals will be is not going to prove difficult. What was a very Republican state about a century ago is certainly not anymore. In fact, Rhode Island is maybe one of the top three or four most Democratic states in the nation. That they had 16 years of Republican governors in modern times was an anomaly not unlike what we see in Massachusetts. That streak ended in 2014. Republican state legislators in the Ocean State are on the endangered species list and there has not been a GOP congressmember from Rhode Island since January 1995.
As for what 2020 has in store, the answers are contained in our below forecast.
RI US House Rating Scale
Your 2020 Rhode Island House races will not have any tossups, but they will be rated on this scale.
2020 Rhode Island House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 23
Current Rhode Island US House Map
It’s not like David Cicilline has gotten away scot-free in every election. In fact he actually had a close call or two, but those days were about 10 years ago. In a blue year, he will sail well over 60 percent, and he won’t need a Newport yacht to do it.
Donald Trump did not lose the 2nd District by all that much in 2016, but he still lost while Jim Langevin ran well ahead of Hillary Clinton. He may do it again but nevertheless, he is not in any real peril of losing.
RI House References
1: Ed Kilgore, “How the Political Map Is Likely to Shift After the 2020 Census,” New York Magazine, July 22, 2019, NY Mag Link)