Canadian Elections

2020 Saskatchewan Election Predictions and Results

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2020 Saskatchewan Election Predictions and Results

This is your home for the 2020 Saskatchewan election, taking place on October 26, with predictions and results.

The election in this central province takes place two days after British Columbia’s snap election, and on the same day as two Canadian federal by-elections in the Toronto area, both held by Liberals. However. while the Liberals might go two-for-two in Toronto on October 26, they will likely go 0-for-61 in Saskatchewan. Politics in the province has been dominated in the modern era by two parties: the centre-right Saskatchewan Party and the centre-left NDP. In fact, the last time a party other than those two won a seat in the legislature was 1999.

Based on that, one could say that Saskatchewan is a two-party province. Well, not exactly these days: in 2016, the Saskatchewan Party won a huge majority under Brad Wall, The Saskatchewan Party defeated the New Democrats 51 to 10 in the seat count, while more than doubling them up in votes. Will the 2020 election, the third provincial election during the pandemic, prove to be much of the same? (It would have been the second, but British Columbia slid in two days earlier.) In the nation’s first provincial election of the year, the incumbent PC government of New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs gained seats and won a majority government.

We predicted the results in all 61 ridings for the 2020 Saskatchewan election. When the counting is done, we will have the results.

2020 Saskatchewan Election Party Leaders

Saskatchewan party leaders 9-21-20

This is the first provnicial election for both Scott Moe and Ryan Meili as leaders of the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP, respectively. As for the province’s minor parties, the Saskatchewan Liberals have a leadership vacancy. Naomi Hunter is the leader of the Saskatchewan Green Party.

2020 Saskatchewan Election Results

2020 Saskatchewan Election Results

Vote Count Results

Saskatchewan 2020 Election Results

Riding-by-Riding Predictions and Results

Click on the link below corresponding to the region of Saskatchewan you wish to see. All 61 ridings are included. Images will open in a new tab.

PredictionsResults
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWANCENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWANNORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
REGINAREGINA
SASKATOONSASKATOON
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWANSOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWANSOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN

Election Analysis, October 25

On the eve of the Saskatchewan election, we still predict a sizable majority for the Saskatchewan Party.

Scott Moe’s lead in the polls in not what is used to be, but they’ll take a 20-point margin all day, every day. The only side effect it has had is that SP seats we marked in our first run as “very close” or “50/50” are now tilting towards the NDP. This get the NDP up to 17 total, still well short of a majority government, but a better position overall.

The NDP will not get to majority territory until they do something outside of the cities. We identified perhaps two seats they could flip outside of Regina and Saskatoon. Other than that, it’s all dark green, and the Saskatchewan Party can get right to the doorstep of a majority government on those seats alone. Indeed, the NDP likely did not expect to win this election, but improve their position for next time. We think they will do that, but not in substantial fashion.

Election Analysis, September 21

The Saskatchewan Party, in government in the province since 2007, begins the 2020 campaign in excellent shape.

When putting together our first wave of riding predictions for the 2020 Saskatchewan election, we found there were not that many of interest. If, in fact, the Saskatchewan Party lead is (still) as big as suspected, how many seats are in play? We found perhaps six. Even if Scott Moe’s party lost them all, they’re still back big.

Therefore, the Saskatchewan Party begins this campaign with an extreme likelihood of winning another majority government. It will take some serious movement by Ryan Meili and the NDP to make this competitive.

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