What do we forecast as the result of the 2020 South Carolina House races?
South Carolina gets a reputation as being a typical Southern red state. Well, it is a red state, in case you didn’t know, but like many other states in the South, it has distinct and deeply blue areas of Democratic strength. Every now and then, those regions combine with an ancestral Democratic tradition that re-activates and delivers a surprising victory here and there. South Carolina was in fact a very Democratic state up until about 25-30 years ago, but do you think even a guy like Fritz Hollings could get elected there today? A perfect storm would have to come together, but it’s been a long time. Republicans have held a majority in the Congressional delegation for about those last 25 years when the Palmetto State began its transformation.
While it takes effort for Democrats to win on a state level in South Carolina in 2020, on a more local level, they haven’t been shut out quite as often. The 1st District was a shocking gain of the 2018 Blue Wave for Democrats, but can they hold onto it in a presidential year? Check out our predictions below for the 2020 South Carolina House races and see what we’re thinking as of today. (If we have not updated this, then we’re still thinking it.)
SC US House Rating Scale
This scale shows how we rate the 2020 South Carolina House races, and no, we do not do tossups on Electionarium.
2020 South Carolina House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 23
Current South Carolina US House Map
This is going to be difficult for the Democrats to keep. To his credit, Joe Cunningham has positioned himself as a moderate, but if he were more liberal, he’d have never won in the first place. We are watching the Republican primary to see who emerges, and you can bet this seat is high on the GOP list to flip in 2020. Until the primary happens, it’s difficult for us to make anything other than a status quo prediction.
Joe Wilson famously yelled “you lie” during a Barack Obama speech, but he’s been a lot more under the radar since then. He continues to get re-elected in his western and central South Carolina district and it will happen again in 2020.
We have here solid Trump country and it’s also solid Jeff Duncan country.
The upstate of South Carolina is a hotbed of Republican support; as the GOP sweeps through this area, William Timmons will also cruise to re-election.
South Carolina’s 5th District was the subject of a special election in 2017 that was a lot closer than expected, but still a respectable Republican win. Ralph Norman bounced back with a stronger result in 2018, which was more in line with how the GOP has done here since picking the district off in 2010. We think Norman is safe.
Jim Clyburn, in recent times, is the man who almost single-handedly saved Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy. His district was drawn to be very blue, so he will represent it as long as he wishes.
The Pee Dee is voting Republican in solid numbers. There are more Republican areas of the state than around Myrtle Beach, but this district will not be a problem for the GOP or Tom Rice.