This is the day that will propel the eventual victor and end other campaigns in its wake: 2020 Super Tuesday.
In total, 16 states, territories, or entities will vote for their Democratic presidential nominee on Tuesday, March 3. From the coldest corners of Maine to the sunny beach paradise of American Samoa, hundreds of delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention will be at stage. To be clear, by our count (full calendar can be found here), there are 1,366 delegates at stake on Super Tuesday. Considering 1,991 is the number of non-super delegates a candidate needs to claim the nomination on the first ballot, this is a huge chunk of what will be needed.
2020 Super Tuesday follows the February activity of four primaries and caucuses: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. By the time Super Tuesday hits, we will know who the top few candidates in the nomination race are — or will we?
That’s the thing about Super Tuesday: there are so many delegates on the line that even an isolated strong performance in a large state can cause a tectonic shift in the overall race. Whomever comes away from this day with the most projected delegates will claim victory and also state that they are the nominee-in-waiting, and all others should get behind them. The rest, depending on how viable they remain in the delegate count, may elect to do that or fight on to potentially more prosperous contests. One thing of which there is no doubt is that Super Tuesday will have a major say in who is the 2020 Democratic nominee for president.
We will take you around to each of the 16 contests scheduled for Super Tuesday, as voters in these areas each make a crucial decision.
2020 Super Tuesday Results
Follow Electionarium on social media (links atop this page) for the latest on the results on Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Super Tuesday: Alabama Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden wins in a landslide, coming in well over 60 percent. He did enormously well with the African-American vote, a story which would be repeated over and over on Super Tuesday.**
Alabama is the first state alphabetically and one of the ones to watch on Super Tuesday. Back in 2016, bolstered by a strong performance with the African-American vote, Hillary Clinton won this primary in a landslide. Clinton carried every county in the state. Will Joe Biden, who turned black voters out in big numbers in South Carolina, also do the same in Alabama?
In total, 52 pledged delegates at at stake in Alabama.
Super Tuesday: Arkansas Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden continued his dominance of the South, beating Bernie Sanders by double-digits with Mike Bloomberg finishing in third.**
Much like she did in Alabama, Hillary Clinton won the Arkansas primary in a walk in 2016. We’ll soon find out if all of the southern states will follow suit and back one candidate, namely Joe Biden. Those doing the best in Arkansas will divide the state’s 31 delegates.
Super Tuesday: California Primary
THE RESULT: **Likely Bernie Sanders victory.**
This is without question the biggest prize of 2020 Super Tuesday. With 416 delegates at stake, California’s winner will add a lot to their bucket in the quest for a convention majority. Over 5 million people voted in the most recent Democratic primary there, but then again, that primary was in June. This year’s in the Golden State is right in the middle of the action on Super Tuesday. Bernie Sanders led in polls up to election day, with Joe Biden making some inroads following his South Carolina win.
Super Tuesday: Colorado Primary
THE RESULT: **Bernie Sanders won by a comfortable margin, with Biden and Bloomberg neck-and-neck for second place.**
Colorado is a state trending into the blue column, increasing its importance in the Democratic fold. It awards a total of 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention.
Had Michael Bennet stayed in the race, he still would not have won his home state. The conventional wisdom here is that Sanders will win, but Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar’s free agent voters could make a difference.
Super Tuesday: Maine Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden wins a state where he did not contend, narrowly beating Bernie Sanders.**
Maine may only have 24 delegates, but the fight is on for them. There are a few New Englanders in the race, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who may be in prime position. This is one of three New England Super Tuesday primaries, and it’s the middle one in terms of delegates allotted.
Super Tuesday: Massachusetts Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden scored an upset victory in Elizabeth Warren’s home state. He won over Bernie Sanders by six points with Warren a distant third.**
This is the biggest price in the Northeast on 2020 Super Tuesday, with the Massachusetts primary offering 91 delegates. In truth, the campaign begun in Massachusetts in 2019: because of its proximity to New Hampshire and its dominance of the southern New Hampshire media market, the ads have been running at a constant clip in Boston. Elizabeth Warren will hope to score a big victory in her home state, but Bernie Sanders did well here in 2016. Warren is not polling well in most Super Tuesday states, but a loss in Massachusetts almost certainly means she is out of the race on Wednesday.
Super Tuesday: Minnesota Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden took another upset win in Amy Klobuchar’s state. He beat Bernie Sanders by about eight points.**
Up in Minnesota, they award a total of 75 pledged delegates. Amy Klobuchar would have won her home state, most likely, but as she dropped out a day before Super Tuesday, that passes the torch to Bernie Sanders as the next favored candidate.
Super Tuesday: North Carolina Primary
THE RESULT: **Landslide win for Joe Biden, taking the Tar Heel state by almost 20 points over Bernie Sanders. Neither Mike Bloomberg nor Elizabeth Warren reached 15 percent.**
North Carolina is the third-largest 2020 Super Tuesday prize with 110 delegates at stake. There are no North Carolinians in the race, but this will be a Joe Biden target given his Southern strategy. This was another state that handed Hillary Clinton a sizable victory in 2016. This fast-growing state has many transplants from the north, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren country. Will they make any impact and swing a close primary?
Super Tuesday: Oklahoma Primary
THE RESULT: **Like other states nearby, this was a Joe Biden win by double digits over Bernie Sanders. Bloomberg and Warren each failed to reach 15 percent.**
Oklahoma may be a red state, but its DNC delegates count just as much. This time, there will be 37 awarded in Oklahoma. The lone Democrat in Oklahoma’s congressional delegation, Kendra Horn, had not endorsed a candidate as of Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday: Tennessee Primary
THE RESULT: **On a tough day for Tennessee due to severe weather, Joe Biden won convincingly. He beat Sanders by about 17 points with Bloomberg third at 16 percent.**
Another state in the South and another potential opportunity for Joe Biden to score a win. The Volunteer State will award 64 delegates. The most Democratic corners of the state are in the Memphis area and the Nashville area, both of which went heavily to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Super Tuesday: Texas Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden wins, marking a significant result for the former vice president in taking the second-biggest state in the country.**
The second-most consequential state on Super Tuesday, and perhaps in the whole primary process, Texas offers its winner a nice share of its 228 convention delegates. Had Beto O’Rourke stayed in the race, he could have made a play for a lot of them. With the Texan out of the running, however, this is wide open. Should the winner of Texas also be the California winner, that candidate will potentially get hundreds of delegates off of these two states alone. If Joe Biden is to keep up with Bernie Sanders in the delegate count, he needs to win here.
Super Tuesday: Utah Primary
THE RESULT: **Bernie Sanders won a decisive victory over Mike Bloomberg by about 15 points. Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren battle for third.**
Utah may be the reddest state in the United States, with the possible exclusion of Idaho. Democratic victories are rare but not unheard of, but one thing we do know is that a Democrat will win this primary and take a share of 29 delegates. Do not expect heavy polling in this race, so the winner may end up being a surprise to all of us.
Super Tuesday: Vermont Primary
THE RESULT: **Bernie Sanders wins big in his home state with 51 percent, but at 22 percent, Biden will get Vermont delegates.**
Vermont may only have 16 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, but it seems to be one of the few Super Tuesday races that is a sure thing. Expect a Bernie Sanders slam dunk win in his home state.
Super Tuesday: Virginia Primary
THE RESULT: **Biden won a blowout victory, beating Bernie Sanders by 30 points.**
Virginia is another growing state, and one trending blue. It will hand out 99 pledged delegates on Super Tuesday. The bases of Democratic support in Virginia are centered around Northern Virginia, the Richmond area, and the inner cities of Hampton Roads. Given its location on the map and its sizable African-American vote, Joe Biden is hoping for a good night in this commonwealth. Sanders, who has campaigned actively here, however, will be close.
Other 2020 Super Tuesday Contests
American Samoa Caucuses
THE RESULT: **Bloomberg wins with Tulsi Gabbard in second.**
The only 2020 Super Tuesday caucus, American Samoa’s Democrats will get together to pick their nominee and award six delegates.
The number of caucusgoers was in the hundreds back in 2016 when they awared Hillary Clinton a strong victory. It will not take many votes to deliver a win to a candidate, but it is easy to think these results will be overlooked by the mainland United States. The winning candidate will take it, however.
Just remember this: if it ends up being a contested convention, or a very narrow first-ballot win for a particular candidate, these six delegates may make a difference.
Democrats Abroad Primary
Beginning on 2020 Super Tuesday and stretching until the following Tuesday, registered expat Democrats who are members of the Democrats Abroad organization will have a chance to vote. We will count it among the Super Tuesday contests, even though it runs until March 10 around the world.
According to Democrats Abroad, in addition to beging able to vote online or by mail, there will be over 100 global primary voting sites.1
1: DA News Editor, “Democrats Abroad Announces 12 Democratic Presidential Candidates Qualify for Primary Ballot,” Democrats Abroad, January 7, 2020, https://www.democratsabroad.org/2020_primary_ballot)