We need to talk about the 2020 Utah House races.
There may be just four of them, but one generated a flip last time. All eyes will be on that 4th District to see if its incumbent Democrat can hold the seat in what should be a good year for the Republicans everywhere else. Keep in mind, however, that Donald Trump is perhaps not the most popular GOP candidate to ever run in the Beehive State, so you may not see a 40-point Republican win at the top of the ticket. While this is unlikely to hurt the GOP status in the other three seats, could lack of a Trump blowout help Ben McAdams get re-elected?
There’s just one way to find out, and it will be in November. Democrats winning in Utah is a tightrope act and things have to go just right to make it work long-term. If you want to see this and our other predictions in Utah, you can spot them right here.
UT US House Rating Scale
We will rate the 2020 Utah House races on the below scale, and no, we do not use tossups.
2020 Utah House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 30
Current Utah US House Map
Rob Bishop is bowing out, but Democrats do not have much of a play here. They have not won this seat in 40 years and this is not a serious target.
Chris Stewart’s district is the second-least safe of the four districts, but still safe. We do not see this as a flip opportunity.
It was a blowout win for John Curtis in 2018, so rest assured that the probability of his re-election this year is high.
Ben McAdams and the Democrats will have a hell of a time holding this seat, but one possible saving grace for him is that Donald Trump may not run up the score in Utah like other Republicans would. You know, like we said above. For the spring, we freely admit we are hedging and are putting a weak lean on McAdams to hold the seat. However, it will not take much going wrong for McAdams to fall behind the eventual Republican nominee.