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2020 Virginia 7th District House Race Preview

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2020 Virginia 7th District House Race

Our next featured election is the 2020 Virginia 7th District House race.

It is held by Abigail Spanberger (D), first elected in 2018. She is the first Democrat to represent the area in decades.

Trust us, the 2nd District (Virginia Beach and Eastern Shore) and the 5th District (Charlottesville, Danville) will get plenty of attention for us and others in November. For now, we are focusing on the 7th District, a House race that has been a little bit neglected in the course of the 2020 campaign.

The 2020 Virginia 7th District House Race in 2 Minutes

This is a district in which Donald Trump won by six points in 2016, and one that both John McCain and Mitt Romney won by about ten each. So, how, you may ask, does it have a Democrat representing it in Congress?

If you are in tune with politics in the United States during the Trump era, and you followed the 2018 midterm elections, you know the answer. The Republican Party got blasted in the suburbs in 2018, losing the Virginia 7th District and many others just like it. Though much of the 7th is rural and red, a signifcant portion of its population comes from suburbs around the west of Richmond. This includes places like Glen Allen, Short Pump, and Midlothian. These areas swung hard towards Abigail Spanberger in 2018, costing then-Rep. Dave Brat his seat.

In what might be some disappointing news for the GOP trying to win it back in 2020, these areas got no redder in Virginia’s quasi-midterm elections in 2019, which saw Democrats flip the House of Delegates. However, the GOP did not lose any seats around Richmond, either, as most of the Democratic damage was done in Hampton Roads and northern Virginia. For the Republicans to take the seat back, they will need to improve upon uninspiring performances in Henrico and Chesterfield Counties.

2020 Candidates for the 7th District

If we need to remind you: exercise caution visiting outside links.

Abigail Spanberger (D)Incumbent US Representative (2019-)
Nick Freitas (R)State Delegate (District 30, 2016-)

What Do We Predict?: Virginia 7th District House Race

Our prediction as of October 18 is that Spanberger will hold the seat (Dem hold: weak lean).

You can see all of our predictions for Virginia’s House races at the Virginia page, as well as the status of all 435 House races through our main US House page.

OTHER 2020 RACE PREVIEWS: Arizona US Senate | South Carolina US Senate

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