What do we think of the 2020 Washington House races?
Was Washington State ever a red state as we would call it today? Yes, from the time it was founded up until around the time of the Great Depression and the start of the Roosevelt years. Since then, and we are talking about 90 years, Washington has at best been a swing state for the GOP. The last Republican to carry it for president was Ronald Reagan in 1984, but they have had some flourishes of support since then at the state level. For a little while, towards the end of Slade Gorton’s run in the Senate, the GOP had a majority of the House seats. However, the Republicans lost that edge in the 1998 midterm elections and have yet to get it back.
Washington has seven Democrats and three Republicans representing it in the other Washington. The GOP has not picked up a House seat in Washington State in 10 years. By November, we will find out if that shutout streak continues.
WA US House Rating Scale
The 2020 Washington House races are being rated this way, and you are not going to find a single tossup on this website.
2020 Washington House Races Current Prediction Summary: May 30
Current Washington US House Map
Republicans are decades removed from repeated success in this northwest Washington seat, but the thing is, Suzan DelBene has only cracked 60 percent once, and that was 60.4. She’s safe, but not very safe.
The GOP is only marginally competitive in the 2nd District these days, so Rick Larsen is in good shape.
Jaime Herrera Beutler has been in Congress for a decade, and while her runs for re-election are not getting any easier, she did win by five points in a Democratic wave election. We’re being careful, but think the incumbent is in front.
Once you get this far into Washington State, the map tilts in favor of the GOP. Dan Newhouse is the least likely of the three Washington Republicans to lose.
Cathy McMorris Rodgers had her closest race in 2018, but still grabbed about 55 percent of the vote. We do not expect her to lose but “safe” is a little too much right now.
The Kitsap and Olympia Peninsulas do not offer much for the Republicans these days. However, to call it “very safe” we would be looking for Democrats to run up bigger scores. All of this is academic; Kilmer is going to win, just a question of how big the margin is.
The odds of anyone but a Democrat winning this Seattle seat are zero. Goose egg. Zippo.
A featured race of ours in 2018, Washington’s 8th District has been trending away from the GOP. Now that they have lost it, it’s not probable that this is the time they will take it back. This is not that Democratic of a district, and maybe Dave Reichert would have held on if he ran in 2018, but Kim Schrier is now the incumbent and has the upper hand.
Adam Smith is a long-timer and he will be in Congress a lot longer if he wants to be in this blue district.
Denny Heck, the only congressman the 10th has ever had, is stepping down but it’s hard to see a non-Democrat winning this seat based around the capital, Olympia.