The rumours swirled for months, but the 2021 Canadian election is now here.
On Sunday, August 15, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau went for a ride to the Governor General’s office. Prime ministers tend not to do that on random Sunday mornings just to say hello: this was to have the 44th Canadian federal election called. Mary Simon, the Governor General herself, granted Trudeau’s request to dissolve Parliament despite some protesting from the opposition.
In 2019, Justin Trudeau’s first-term Liberal government went to the polls and lost its majority. In 2021, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, they will aim to get it back.
We’re sure you want to know who is going to win the 2021 Canadian election. We will tell you as all of our 338 riding predictions fill in during the coming days, but for the first time, we want our readers to weigh in on competitive ridings. Keep an eye on Electionarium over the next month.
When Is The 2021 Canadian Election?
Election day is Monday, September 20, 2021.
Canadian Federal Election Party Leaders
Justin Trudeau is leading the Liberals into an election for the third time (2015, 2019, 2021). Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet are leading their second campaigns as leaders of their respective parties. Erin O’Toole and Annamie Paul face the voters as leaders for the first time.
Of the extra-Parliamentary parties, Maxime Bernier will lead the People’s Party into a second election.
2021 Canadian Election Results
Canadian Election Results Review
Liberals escape undamaged, but people will be wondering. The Liberals called a snap election in the middle of a pandemic and gained just one seat net. Some will ask if it was worth it as Justin Trudeau has in essence the same minority government he had prior to dissolution. It’s probable that we will be doing this again in 2023 or early 2024, given that minority governments last on average about two years.
Ontario screws the Conservatives again. The GTA is all red, and lots of critical ridings with it. Yes, the CPC did much better in the Atlantic than predicted, but local issues matter. That wasn’t the case in Ontario, where they actually ceded a little ground in some places. Erin O’Toole is going to be put through a lot of scrutiny if he remains leader. He’s actually from the GTA and could not make any headway there. They can talk about moral victories in holding the Liberals to another minority, but moral victories don’t count in the standings. What does matter is that they have lost three elections in a row.
Bloc tops out and thwarts another Liberal majority. Our likely high-end prediction for the Bloc Quebecois was 34. That’s where they finished, actually gaining seats from the last election. They had a great night. Had they come in on the lower end of our range, the Liberals would be a lot closer to a majority.
NDP wave never materializes. Meanwhile, the NDP was on the low end of the predicted range. Tactical voting seems to have harmed the party and after they were buoyed by strong poll numbers much of the campaign, they end up a little lower than average and not gaining much ground. Will there be cries for Jagmeet Singh’s leadership on a platter?
Greens have a bad night, but it could have been worse. The Green Party gained a seat in Ontario and lost a seat in British Columbia. Their popular vote cratered around the country and was concentrated only in a handful of ridings. Two seats is respectable, all things considered, because it could have been one. Annamie Paul’s leadership is finished and it’s back to the drawing board for the party.
People’s Party may have cost CPC a handful of seats. They were not in serious contention to win any of their own, including the Beauce where Maxime Bernier lost by over 16,000 votes.
2021 Canadian Election: Overall Prediction
Most recent predictions run on September 17, 2021.
Check on the image or the link below to jump to the province of your choice.
|Alberta||British Columbia||Manitoba||New Brunswick|
|Newfoundland & Labrador||Northern Canada||Nova Scotia||Ontario|
|Prince Edward Island||Quebec||Saskatchewan|
High-Low Seat Ranges
What Do These Ranges Mean?
Absolute Max: The most optimistic prediction for a party’s performance within reason, if polls wildly discounted a party’s true standing. A party will not win more than this number. It includes ridings in which a party has a plausible but less likely chance of winning.
Likely Max: A more realistic upper boundary of a party’s performance. This includes seats where they are competitive but not at present forecast to win.
Prediction: The current Electionarium seat prediction.
Likely Min: What we feel is the realistic worst-case scenario for a party. Seats in which a party is projected to win but could plausibly lose are subtracted from the prediction total.
Absolute Min: The most pessimistic, worst-case, the-world-is-a-fiery-hellscape election result for a particular party. A party will not win fewer seats than this under any circumstances.
Your 2021 Canadian Election Predictions
Now is the time where you can vote for your picks on who will win key races in various critical ridings across Canada. At present, we have 79 ridings where Electionarium’s polls are open. Vote now!
Click on the image below to choose your starting point.
Canadian Federal Election: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios, September 1
Liberal Realistic Best-Case Scenario: Despite worsening poll numbers, Justin Trudeau’s gamble on a snap election pays off. They are able to win enough Bloc seats and keep the Conservatives down enough in Ontario and the Atlantic to form a narrow majority government. The Liberals won’t get out of the 170s in terms of seats, but a majority is a majority. They better hope they don’t lose too many by-elections.
Liberal Realistic Worst-Case Scenario: The Liberals came into this election hoping to turn their minority into a majority. They end up with another minority – for the Conservatives. In fact, the final result is gruesome as the Conservatives make gains in the Atlantic, Ontario, and even a few in Quebec. The Liberals finish about 20 seats behind and the soul-searching begins as they Nova Scotia themselves.
Conservative Realistic Best-Case Scenario: With the dramatic turn of events in the opinion polling prior to the election, the Conservatives gain 20 to 25 seats and Erin O’Toole becomes the 24th Prime Minister of Canada. His government may not last very long in a tense minority situation, but the CPC rides to an improbable election victory.
Conservative Realistic Worst-Case Scenario: The Conservatives lose a handful of seats in Ontario and British Columbia. They may even take a lick or two in Alberta and Saskatchewan at the hands of the Liberals (AB) or NDP (SK), depending on where. O’Toole watches the Liberals squeak out a narrow majority or strong minority government.
NDP Realistic Best-Case Scenario: The 2021 election says that the NDP is “back.” Jagmeet Singh’s crew pick up about a dozen seats and the party surges into the upper 30s. They’ll have a role to play in yet another minority government.
NDP Realistic Worst-Case Scenario: Not only does the NDP bump in the polls not hold, but tactical voting costs the NDP otherwise winnable seats. They’re happy to just about break even from the 2019 vote.
Canadian Federal Election: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios, August 15
Liberal Best-Case Scenario: Justin Trudeau and his Liberals suppress the Conservatives, the Bloc tumbles back into the mid-20s in seats, and the NDP’s vote never materializes. The Liberals gain about 25 seats from the prior election and form a majority government. It’s not as big of a majority as they won in 2015, but almost, and it gets the job done.
Liberal Worst-Case Scenario: The snap election call backfires and the CPC vote holds together better than expected. Couple this with the NDP coming in hot and the Liberals lose about a dozen seats. They still form a minority government with about 20 more seats than the CPC.
Conservative Best-Case Scenario: The Tories surprise everyone by holding nearly all of the seats they won in 2019 and adding a handful of others, mostly close races they lost in Ontario and the West last time. They hold their few seats in the Alantic and add one more in New Brunswick. The CPC nets a handful and finishes about 20 seats behind the Liberals. Erin O’Toole may or may not see his leadership survive, but another election by 2023 or 2024 looks likely, which is almost as good as a win.
Conservative Worst-Case Scenario: Atlantic Canada continues to elude the CPC, who lose their sole Nova Scotia seat and barely cling onto what they have in New Brunswick. Nothing happens in Quebec worth noting, they fail again to break through in Ontario (and actually lose a few more seats), and then they get railroaded in British Columbia by both the NDP and Liberals. They lose about 20 seats from the last election, with just north of 100 total.
NDP Best-Case Scenario: The NDP’s national popular vote eclipses 20 percent, leading to a handful of gains over both the Liberals and the CPC. The Atlantic and Quebec bear nothing for them, but the gains start in Ontario, they even pick up a seat in the Prairies (Saskatoon, specifically), and they add to their totals in British Columbia. The NDP ends up in the mid-to-high 30s.
NDP Worst-Case Scenario: Their expected bump in the polls never comes together. Instead of surging ahead by 10 or so seats, they slip back a hair as they fail to knock off the Liberals in some Ontario and British Columbia ridings, and the Conservative vote holds together just well enough to prevent a breakthrough. The NDP ends up with a disappointing low-20s haul.
Green Best-Case Scenario: In their first election under Annamie Paul, the Greens hold their two seats on Vancouver Island, and (expectedly or unexpectedly) win a third seat, perhaps even Paul herself.
Green Worst-Case Scenario: The Liberals and NDP increase their vote share from last time, and some of it comes at the expense of the Greens. They see much of their scale-back coming in British Columbia, costing Paul Manly his seat in Nanaimo. Annamie Paul also fails to win, but Elizabeth May holds on to her Saanich seat, once again as the sole Green MP.