These are the 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador election predictions in all 40 ridings. NL election day is February 13, 2021.
From here, you can return to the main page for the 2021 NL election, review the overall prediction, or jump to a specific region of the province.
2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions: Current Overall
2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions: Riding by Riding
Suburbs of St. John’s
Remainder of the Avalon Peninsula
Election Prediction Analysis, January 29
The Liberal Party is in clear position to win the Newfoundland and Labrador election. So strong are the Liberal poll numbers that our concern as prognosticators is that we are actually underestimating the size of the coming Liberal majority.
There is always some reason for hesitation calling a majority of massive proportions. Just more possibility for egg to land on your face when the votes are counted. However, there is clear polling evidence that the Andrew Furey government is heading for a landslide. Further, Newfoundland and Labrador has elected governments to landslides before, with Dwight Ball winning 31 out of 40 in 2015 and Danny Williams taking 44 out of 48 in 2007. For his part, the new premier appears to have strong approval ratings in his brief tenure.
One such example is a Mainstreet Research poll from late January:
There are other polls like it floating through the cyberspace ether. This adds up to a large Liberal majority, possibly well in excess of our current predicted 29 seats out of 40 for the Liberals. Please also note we reserve the right to revise individual riding predictions until February 12.
Our own internal calculations show that the Liberal high-water mark could be around 34 seats, which would be near wipeout territory for the province’s opposition. The Progressive Conservatives may escape with as few as four, but at this point, keeping 10 seems very unlikely. Ches Crosbie’s own seat is on the margins and we give him nothing more than a slight nod to remain in the House of Assembly. However, if the PCs are reduced to their disaster level of four seats, he will probably not be in one of them.
As for the NDP, we suspect they will hold one for sure, one could be a very close win, and the other appears to be a tough loss.