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Canadian Elections

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions

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2021-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Election-Predictions

These are the 2021 Newfoundland and Labrador election predictions in all 40 ridings. NL election day is March 25, 2021.

From here, you can return to the main page for the 2021 NL election, review the overall prediction, or jump to a specific region of the province.

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions: Current Overall

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction 3.24.21

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election Predictions: Riding by Riding

St. John’s

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - St Johns 1-26-21
Pre-election standings for St. John’s ridings: Liberal 4, New Democratic 2, Progressive Conservative 1

Suburbs of St. John’s

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - St Johns suburbs 3-24-21
Pre-election standings for St. John’s suburban ridings: Progressive Conservative 5, Independent 1

Remainder of the Avalon Peninsula

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - Avalon Peninsula 1-26-21
Pre-election standings for ridings on the Avalon Peninsula away from Greater St. John’s: Liberal 3, Progressive Conservative 2

Eastern Newfoundland

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - Eastern NL 3-24-21
Pre-election standings for Eastern Newfoundland ridings: Progressive Conservative 3, Liberal 1

Central Newfoundland

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - Central NL 3-24-21
Pre-election standings for Central Newfoundland ridings: Liberal 5, Progressive Conservative 2

Western Newfoundland

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - Western NL 1-26-21
Pre-election standings for Western Newfoundland ridings: Liberal 5, Progressive Conservative 1, Independent 1

Labrador

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election prediction - Labrador 3-24-21
Pre-election standings for Labrador ridings: Liberal 1, Progressive Conservative 1, New Democratic 1, Independent 1

Election Prediction Analysis, March 24

On the eve of the twice-rescheduled, wild election in Newfoundland and Labrador, and despite no polling having been released in a month, we decided to pull back the Liberals’ numbers. Sometimes, you have to make a judgment call based on the general trajectory of the campaign, and our opinion is that the Liberals have had a bad month. The COVID outbreak, the debate over the early election call, and the debacle with Elections NL have all seemed to harm the government. In the only polls we had from February after the first postponement, the Liberal lead shrank markedly. We feel that it would have shrunk more if there were further polls.

The Liberals are helped by the fact that some people voted prior to the you-know-what hitting the fan, so they may have banked enough to get their majority. Whereas in late January, we were convinced the Liberals were a runaway electoral train, now we’re wondering if they are in a position to blow it. We’ll find out on Saturday.

Election Prediction Analysis, January 29

The Liberal Party is in clear position to win the Newfoundland and Labrador election. So strong are the Liberal poll numbers that our concern as prognosticators is that we are actually underestimating the size of the coming Liberal majority.

There is always some reason for hesitation calling a majority of massive proportions. Just more possibility for egg to land on your face when the votes are counted. However, there is clear polling evidence that the Andrew Furey government is heading for a landslide. Further, Newfoundland and Labrador has elected governments to landslides before, with Dwight Ball winning 31 out of 40 in 2015 and Danny Williams taking 44 out of 48 in 2007. For his part, the new premier appears to have strong approval ratings in his brief tenure.

One such example is a Mainstreet Research poll from late January:

There are other polls like it floating through the cyberspace ether. This adds up to a large Liberal majority, possibly well in excess of our current predicted 29 seats out of 40 for the Liberals. Please also note we reserve the right to revise individual riding predictions until February 12.

Our own internal calculations show that the Liberal high-water mark could be around 34 seats, which would be near wipeout territory for the province’s opposition. The Progressive Conservatives may escape with as few as four, but at this point, keeping 10 seems very unlikely. Ches Crosbie’s own seat is on the margins and we give him nothing more than a slight nod to remain in the House of Assembly. However, if the PCs are reduced to their disaster level of four seats, he will probably not be in one of them.

As for the NDP, we suspect they will hold one for sure, one could be a very close win, and the other appears to be a tough loss.

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Canadian Elections

2021 Newfoundland and Labrador Election

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