Here’s the latest on the 2021 Texas-06 US House special election, with its jungle primary on May 1, 2021.
Should no candidate achieve an outright majority of the vote in the primary, a runoff will be held on or before May 24, 2021.
This will be the third US House seat to have a special election to fill a vacancy in 2021. The first two, the 2nd and 5th Districts of Louisiana, will hold their special elections in March and runoffs, if required, in April. Check out all of this year’s US House special elections here.
The political geography of Texas is changing. Perhaps too much for Republicans to take comfort, but perhaps too slowly for Democrats to be pleased. Will the Texas 6th District find itself in play in a narrowly-divided House of Representatives?
Texas-06 Special Election 2021: Key Facts
PREVIOUSLY HELD BY: Ron Wright (R). Wright was first elected in 2018 to the 6th District’s seat and was re-elected in 2020. During his first term, he dealt with a cancer diagnosis, and in February 2021, he contracted and died from COVID-19. Wright was the second person elected to the 117th Congress to pass away from COVID-19 complications; the first was Luke Letlow (R) of the 5th District of Louisiana.
LOCATION: This is a northeast Texas seat with much of its population in the DFW area. The district takes in much of Arlington, then reaches for Fort Worth and Grand Prairie. It then jogs southeast of Fort Worth, including towns like Waxahachie and Corsicana.
POLITICAL COMPOSITION: The 6th District is fairly Republican, though less than it used to be. George W. Bush of Texas ran up huge numbers around here, but even Mitt Romney in 2012 carried the 6th District by 17 points. Donald Trump won it by 12 in 2016, but by only three in 2020. Wright never got above roughly 53 percent in either of his two runs for the district.
WHO’S RUNNING: There are 11 candidates running in the May 1 GOP primary and there are 10 Democrats, plus a handful of minor-party candidates. Notable among the Republicans are Susan Wright, Ron Wright’s widow, Jake Ellzey, a state representative, John Anthony Castro, a candidate for Senate in 2020, and Dan Rodimer, a former WWE wrestler who ran for Congress in Nevada last year. Some noteworthy Democrats include Jana Lynne Sanchez, who was previously a Democratic nominee against Wright, and Chris Suprun, who ran in 2018.
2021 Texas-06 US House Special Election: Analysis
To start the campaign, we rate this race as Lean Republican. The 6th District is more Republican than not, but not as much as it used to be, by a longshot. Having over 20 candidates in the race means a very muddled picture and any two candidates can emerge. Expect at least one of them to be a Republican, however, and you can bet on a runoff happening. It would be an absolute shock if it doesn’t.
There has been no opinion polling in the race so far, but we would suspect Ellzey, Wright, and perhaps Rodimer are likely to be near the head of the GOP pack. As for the Democrats, Sanchez would seem to be a favorite.
Whomever the leading Republican is will be a slight favorite to retain the seat. Will the Democrats go after it? Reamins to be seen and a lot depends on which Republican emerges, and obviously if any Democrat emerges. Republicans will reconfigure the lines in 2022 to make it less favorable, anyway.