We have made 2021 Western Australia election predictions in all 59 electorates. Polling day in Western Australia is 13 March 2021.
Below are the overall election prediction as well as electorate-level predictions. These seats are divided by Legislative Council region. Click this link to return to the main page for the 2021 Western Australia state election.
2021 Western Australia Election Predictions: Overall
2021 Western Australia Election Predictions: Seat-by-Seat
Mining and Pastoral
Southwest Western Australia
WA Election Analysis, 20 February
The first Western Australia poll numbers are out, and calling this a looming disaster for the Liberals might be an understatement. Two firms, Online Research Unit and uComms (per The Poll Bludger), had Labor getting a swing of six or seven percent with the Liberal primary vote in the 20s. Newspoll, however, one of Australia’s most reputable pollsters, delivered a much more grim picture for the Liberals and an impossibly beautiful one for Labor: a 68-32 lead, or a swing of over 12 percent to the government. Such a result, if played out in uniform fashion, would almost wipe the Liberals out and take Labor over 50 seats.
When the campaign began, with no polling data at our fingers, the Liberal goal seemed to be “saving the furniture” and perhaps becoming a more competitive opposition. Now, their goal is nothing short of political survival. Mark McGowan is very popular, Labor is benefitting, and we are on track for the most lopsided election in state history since Federation.
Under normal circumstances, we hesitate to pick against a major party leader in their own seat. Yet, three polls concur that Labor is going to get a swing towards them, if not a substantial one. Zak Kirkup is sitting on a 0.8-percent margin in Dawesville. He would struggle to get re-elected in his electorate with no swing or a very slight swing to Labor. If it’s a swing anywhere near what these polls suggest, he’s in serious trouble.
WA Election Analysis, 6 February
There has not been a public opinion poll about the government in Western Australia in over two years. However, is there evidence to dispute that this will be a slam dunk victory for the McGowan Labor government? No. The government’s marks on handling the pandemic seem to be high, and that in itself may be enough to secure Labor a second term.
The Liberals have a fresh young face leading the party, but also an inexperienced one. Not to mention, Zak Kirkup has a massive hill to climb in order to become the premier in March. He needs to more than double the size of his party room just to squeak out a bare majority in the legislature, going from 13 to 30 seats without a government in disarray to assist. This would be a difficult ask if Labor were floundering, as McGowan could lose 10 seats and still be in fine shape. Having to upend a government not perceived to be doing poorly is twice as difficult.
A realistic goal for Kirkup is gaining a handful of seats and placing the Liberals in a stronger opposition. They may not even get that far, but this would seem to be the best for which they can hope. Labor is thinking another majority government of size. As for the Nationals, they would do well to hold at least the five seats they won at the last election and defend Geraldton, which came over to them when Ian Blayney changed parties. They are unlikely to be competitive in more than a handful of others.