Canada Election 2019 - Alberta

The Alberta Federal Election 2019 results will look a lot like past elections, but we need to ask anyway: how many seats will the Conservatives win?

You know the 2015 election was a bad night for the Conservative Party because they let the Liberals win four seats in Alberta with the NDP getting a fifth. Out of 24 seats, that is still a CPC landslide, but this is a party used to near-sweeping the province. The last time the Liberals won four seats in Alberta was in 1993.

Hopes of them increasing beyond that are unrealistic. The NDP had hopes of coming back in the 2019 provincial election campaign, too. What few Liberal MPs there are in Alberta will be on defence, and a few may not make it as the Conservatives begin their recovery from their 2015 low tide.

Indeed, if Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives want any chance of replacing Justin Trudeau by the end of the year, Alberta needs to furnish them a strong result. They see some of these three (one now independent) Liberal seats as low-hanging fruit, and if it’s close on election night (or in a minority government), every seat will matter.

We have all of Alberta’s ridings listed below with their incumbent members. At the appropriate time, every riding will be predicted. But wait, there’s more! You can jump to ridings in any other province below or also jump to the Canadian election big picture.

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Alberta Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Rural Alberta

Blake Richards (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Battle River—Crowfoot
Kevin Sorenson (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Bow River
Martin Shields (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
John Barlow (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
David Yurdiga (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Grande Prairie—Mackenzie
Chris Warkentin (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Shannon Stubbs (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Rachael Harder (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
Glen Motz (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Peace River—Westlock
Arnold Viersen (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Red Deer—Lacombe
Blaine Calkins (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Red Deer—Mountain View
Earl Dreeshen (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Jim Eglinski (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold


Edmonton Centre
Randy Boissonnault (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Edmonton Griesbach
Kerry Diotte (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Edmonton Manning
Ziad Aboultaif (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Edmonton Mill Woods
Amarjeet Sohi (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Edmonton Riverbend
Matt Jeneroux (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Edmonton Strathcona
Linda Duncan (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Edmonton West
Kelly McCauley (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Mike Lake (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
St. Albert—Edmonton
Michael Cooper (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
Garnett Genuis (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Sturgeon River—Parkland
Dane Lloyd (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold


Calgary Centre
Kent Hehr (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Calgary Confederation
Len Webber (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Forest Lawn
Deepak Obhrai (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Heritage
Bob Benzen (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Midnapore
Stephanie Kusie (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Nose Hill
Michelle Rempel (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Rocky Ridge
Pat Kelly (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Shepard
Tom Kmiec (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Signal Hill
Ron Liepert (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Calgary Skyview
Darshan Kang (Ind)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Ind

October 18, 2019 Alberta final predictions update

Forecasted seat total: CPC 33, NDP 1, Lib 0.

No changes at all; Liberals are heading for a wipeout in Alberta and NDP will struggle to hold Edmonton Strathcona.

September 21, 2019 Alberta predictions update

Forecasted seat total: CPC 33, NDP 1, Lib 0.

No changes from last update. Alberta will be solid blue on election night.

July 15, 2019 Alberta predictions update

Forecasted seat total: CPC 33, NDP 1, Lib 0.

Conservatives in a strong position as always in Alberta, and should shore up enough vote, alongside a Liberal decrease, to take all red off the map here. NDP appears to be in position in Edmonton Strathcona despite the retirement of Linda Duncan.