Australian Federal Election 2019 Predictions and Results

A new government down under?

Australian Federal Election 2019

Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?

The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).

Got all that?

Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?

Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.

In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.

NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links

Australian Federal Election 2019 Date

The election date was set for Saturday, May 18th.

Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders

Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister)
Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition)
Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister)
Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens)
Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party)
Vacant (Centre Alliance)
Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation)

Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum

Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.

Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)

Click on thumbnails to enlarge.

Marginal Fairly Safe Safe
Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum marginal seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum fairly safe seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum safe seats

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current

Australian Federal Election 2019 prediction 4-8-19

High-Low Seat Ranges

Australian Federal Election 2019 seat ranges prediction 4-8-19

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions

We’re steering away from predicting the individual races for now, until we know for sure when the election will be. A lot can still change. Check back soon, but in the meantime, see the list of 151 below, the margins each party is defending, and if any current members are standing down.

Australian Capital Territory

Bean
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9)
Prediction: ALP Win
Canberra
Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Fenner
Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold

New South Wales

Banks
David Coleman (Lib 1.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Barton
Linda Burney (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bennelong
John Alexander (Lib 9.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Berowra
Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Blaxland
Jason Clare (ALP 19.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bradfield
Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Calare
Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Chifley
Ed Husic (ALP 19.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Cook
Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Cowper
Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Nat Hold
Cunningham
Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Dobell
Emma McBride (ALP 4.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Eden-Monaro
Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Farrer
Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fowler
Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gilmore
Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Grayndler
Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Greenway
Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hughes
Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hume
Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hunter
Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kingsford Smith
Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lindsay
Emma Husar (ALP 1.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lyne
David Gillespie (Nat 11.6)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Macarthur
Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mackellar
Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Macquarie
Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
McMahon
Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mitchell
Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Newcastle
Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
New England
Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4)
Prediction: Nat Hold
North Sydney
Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Page
Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Parkes
Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Parramatta
Julie Owens (ALP 7.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Paterson
Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Reid
Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Richmond
Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Riverina
Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Robertson
Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Shortland
Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Sydney
Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Warringah
Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Watson
Tony Burke (ALP 17.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Wentworth
Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Werriwa
Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Whitlam
Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Northern Territory

Lingiari
Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Solomon
Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Queensland

Blair
Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bonner
Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Bowman
Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Brisbane
Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Capricornia
Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Dawson
George Christensen (LNP 3.4)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Dickson
Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Fadden
Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Fairfax
Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Fisher
Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Flynn
Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Forde
Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Griffith
Terri Butler (ALP 1.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Groom
John McVeigh (LNP 15.3)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Herbert
Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hinkler
Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Kennedy
Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP)
Prediction: KAP Hold
Leichhardt
Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Lilley
Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Longman
Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Maranoa
David Littleproud (LNP 17.5)
Prediction: LNP Hold
McPherson
Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Moncrieff
Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: LNP Hold
Moreton
Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Oxley
Milton Dick (ALP 9.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Petrie
Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Rankin
Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Ryan
Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Wide Bay
Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Wright
Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6)
Prediction: LNP Hold

South Australia

Adelaide
Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Barker
Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Boothby
Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Grey
Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hindmarsh
Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kingston
Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Makin
Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mayo
Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib)
Prediction: CA Hold
Spence
Nick Champion (ALP 17.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Sturt
Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold

Tasmania

Bass
Ross Hart (ALP 5.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Braddon
Justine Keay (ALP 1.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Clark
Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Franklin
Julie Collins (ALP 10.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lyons
Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Victoria

Aston
Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ballarat
Catherine King (ALP 7.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bendigo
Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bruce
Julian Hill (ALP 15.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Calwell
Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Casey
Tony Smith (Lib 4.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Chisholm
Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP) – Running in Flinders
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Ind
Cooper
Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Corangamite
Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Corio
Richard Marles (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Deakin
Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Dunkley
Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Flinders
Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fraser
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6)
Prediction: ALP Win
Gellibrand
Tim Watts (ALP 14.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gippsland
Darren Chester (Nat 18.2)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Goldstein
Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Gorton
Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Higgins
Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Holt
Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hotham
Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Indi
Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
Isaacs
Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Jagajaga
Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kooyong
Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lalor
Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
La Trobe
Jason Wood (Lib 3.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Macnamara
Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mallee
Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Nat Hold
Maribyrnong
Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
McEwen
Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Melbourne
Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib)
Prediction: Grn Hold
Menzies
Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Monash
Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Nicholls
Damian Drum (Nat 22.3)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Scullin
Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Wannon
Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Wills
Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Western Australia

Brand
Madeleine King (ALP 11.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Burt
Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Canning
Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Cowan
Anne Aly (ALP 0.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Curtin
Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Durack
Melissa Price (Lib 11.1)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Forrest
Nola Marino (Lib 12.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fremantle
Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hasluck
Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Moore
Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
O’Connor
Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Pearce
Christian Porter (Lib 3.6)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Perth
Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Stirling
Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Swan
Steve Irons (Lib 3.6)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Tangney
Ben Morton (Lib 11.1)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 8 April 2019

In our first wave of predictions, we are giving Labor a comfortable majority. You could see this coming from a mile or 1.61 km away, depending on your views of the metric and/or imperial systems.

The Coalition has over 50 Newspoll losses in a row, a number that has only grown in time. (Reference: Reuters) Even with a slight bounce after the budget, the numbers are not there for Scott Morrison and never have been. Morrison’s government appears to have a little over a month left to save itself, or at the very least, “save the furniture.” Kevin Rudd did that for Labor in 2013, sparing the party from what could have been a 95 to 100-seat Coalition rout. They got back into a position where they could come back within two elections. If they must go into opposition, that could be the Coalition’s best, realistic hope.

Had anyone told Labor after the 2013 landslide loss that they could be back in with a comfortable majority in 2019, every last one of them would have signed for that. Right now, that appears to be the trend.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019

Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.

The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.

Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links

Electoral Websites

Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.

Australian Electoral Commission

Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)

Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

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