Australian Federal Election 2019 Predictions and Results

A new government down under?

Australian Federal Election 2019

Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?

The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).

Got all that?

Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?

Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.

In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.

NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Results | Final Analysis | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links

Australian Federal Election 2019 Date

The election date was set for Saturday, May 18th.

Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders

Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister)
Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition)
Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister)
Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens)
Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party)
Vacant (Centre Alliance)
Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation)

Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum

Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.

Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)

Click on thumbnails to enlarge.

Marginal Fairly Safe Safe
Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum marginal seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum fairly safe seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum safe seats

Australian Federal Election 2019 Results

Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Seats

Results Maps

Map detail across Australia — click thumbnails to enlarge.

ACT Adelaide Brisbane Brisbane Surrounds
Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - ACT Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Adelaide Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Brisbane Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Brisbane Surrounds Map
Melbourne Melbourne Surrounds NSW NT
Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Melbourne Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Melbourne Surrounds Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - New South Wales Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Northern Territory Map
Perth QLD SA Sydney
Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Perth Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Queensland Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - South Australia Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Sydney Map
Sydney Surrounds TAS VIC WA
Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Sydney Surrounds Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Tasmania Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Victoria Map Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Western Australia Map

Seats Changing Hands

Australian Federal Election 2019 RESULTS - Seats Changing

Please note: at this time, Macquarie (NSW) is still too close to call but the Liberals are ahead of Labor, which would be another gain.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Final Analysis

Scott Morrison is prime minister of Australia, and not handing over power to Bill Shorten and Labor. Wait, what?

Oh, you, like the rest of us, must have been following the public opinion polls for the last several years. You know, the ones that said Malcolm Turnbull would lose the 2019 federal election, and then, Scott Morrison. Except he did not, even when said polls indicated Labor was on track for a majority.

Just think, including the polls, things were getting grave for the Coalition. The Liberal leadership bloodbath (not merely a spill) in 2018 left a bad taste with some voters while the Liberals then went on to lose Wentworth, a safe seat, in a by-election.

How did the polls get it so wrong in Australia on such a consistent basis? Furthermore, what went wrong for Labor?

Bill Shorten pulled a John Hewson: he lost the “unloseable election,” except this time, it was Labor on the losing end. Despite being on the losing end of almost every opinion poll for the past two years, the Coalition pulled one of the most shocking majority victories in decades.

Few expected Scott Morrison to remain prime minister at the time of this writing, 21 May 2019. One might have thought Bill Shorten would be putting together his cabinet. Instead, Labor is still in opposition, broken and installing a new leader, Anthony Albanese.

It would be meaningless for us to try to employ too much 20/20 hindsight on things we weren’t saying during the campaign. For example, we will not say, “you know, now that you mentioned it, Labor ran a really bad campaign and we should have seen this coming” because nobody was saying that. We can, however, say this, and nobody will dispute it: the polls were very, very, very wrong, perhaps as wrong as they have ever been in a modern Australian election. All we had were indications that the race might be tightening and not the blowout we expected at the start of the year.

Whether because of Adani, preference flows, both, or neither, Queensland in particular railroaded Labor out of the gate. They had a terrible night in the northeast of Australia, losing several marginals, failing to gain any from the LNP, and almost shedding safe seats like Lilley. It was one thing for this to happen north of Brisbane as we expected, but quite another further down the coast. Labor’s hopes of knocking off Peter Dutton, Bert van Manen, Ross Vasta, and Luke Howarth went down the tubes in spectacular fashion.

This made Labor’s job harder elsewhere, but then, the unthinkable: Labor did not make those losses up elsewhere in any significant way. Gilmore (NSW) was their only success story anywhere in Australia, and even that was more difficult than expected. Other than the two Victorian Liberal seats that were redistributed into the Labor column, they did not gain a single other seat. In fact, they lost others: Bass and Braddon in Tasmania and perhaps Macquarie in New South Wales. The Labor wave never happened.

Pollsters have a tough gig sometimes. You never know if the person answering the phone or filling out the survey is stating their honest voting intention. However, that excuse only goes so far considering how long a Labor victory was predicted. It was almost a sure bet. Almost.

Labor is in the unexpected position of rebuilding once more despite believing they would be in government today. As for the Coalition, they have three years of surprise government gifted to them.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current

Australian Federal Election 2019 prediction 5-17-19

High-Low Seat Ranges

Australian Federal Election 2019 seat ranges prediction 5-17-19

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions

Australian Capital Territory

Bean
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9)
Prediction: ALP Win
Canberra
Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Fenner
Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold

New South Wales

Banks
David Coleman (Lib 1.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Barton
Linda Burney (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bennelong
John Alexander (Lib 9.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Berowra
Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Blaxland
Jason Clare (ALP 19.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bradfield
Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Calare
Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Chifley
Ed Husic (ALP 19.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Cook
Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Cowper
Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Ind GAIN from Nat
Cunningham
Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Dobell
Emma McBride (ALP 4.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Eden-Monaro
Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Farrer
Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fowler
Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gilmore
Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Grayndler
Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Greenway
Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hughes
Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hume
Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hunter
Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kingsford Smith
Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lindsay
Emma Husar (ALP 1.1) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from ALP
Lyne
David Gillespie (Nat 11.6)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Macarthur
Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mackellar
Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Macquarie
Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
McMahon
Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mitchell
Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Newcastle
Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
New England
Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4)
Prediction: Nat Hold
North Sydney
Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Page
Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Parkes
Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Parramatta
Julie Owens (ALP 7.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Paterson
Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Reid
Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Richmond
Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Riverina
Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Robertson
Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Shortland
Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Sydney
Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Warringah
Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Watson
Tony Burke (ALP 17.6)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Wentworth
Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Werriwa
Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Whitlam
Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Northern Territory

Lingiari
Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Solomon
Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Queensland

Blair
Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bonner
Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Bowman
Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Brisbane
Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Capricornia
Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Dawson
George Christensen (LNP 3.4)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Dickson
Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Fadden
Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Fairfax
Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Fisher
Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Flynn
Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Forde
Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Griffith
Terri Butler (ALP 1.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Groom
John McVeigh (LNP 15.3)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Herbert
Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02)
Prediction: LNP GAIN from ALP
Hinkler
Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Kennedy
Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP)
Prediction: KAP Hold
Leichhardt
Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Lilley
Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Longman
Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Maranoa
David Littleproud (LNP 17.5)
Prediction: LNP Hold
McPherson
Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Moncrieff
Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: LNP Hold
Moreton
Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Oxley
Milton Dick (ALP 9.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Petrie
Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Rankin
Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Ryan
Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8) – Lost Preselection
Prediction: LNP Hold
Wide Bay
Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3)
Prediction: LNP Hold
Wright
Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6)
Prediction: LNP Hold

South Australia

Adelaide
Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Barker
Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Boothby
Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Grey
Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hindmarsh
Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kingston
Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Makin
Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mayo
Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib)
Prediction: CA Hold
Spence
Nick Champion (ALP 17.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Sturt
Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold

Tasmania

Bass
Ross Hart (ALP 5.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Braddon
Justine Keay (ALP 1.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Clark
Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Franklin
Julie Collins (ALP 10.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Lyons
Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Victoria

Aston
Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ballarat
Catherine King (ALP 7.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bendigo
Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Bruce
Julian Hill (ALP 15.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Calwell
Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Casey
Tony Smith (Lib 4.5)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Chisholm
Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Ind
Cooper
Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Corangamite
Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Corio
Richard Marles (ALP 8.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Deakin
Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Dunkley
Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Flinders
Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fraser
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6)
Prediction: ALP Win
Gellibrand
Tim Watts (ALP 14.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Gippsland
Darren Chester (Nat 18.2)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Goldstein
Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Gorton
Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Higgins
Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Holt
Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hotham
Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Indi
Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
Isaacs
Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Jagajaga
Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Kooyong
Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lalor
Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
La Trobe
Jason Wood (Lib 3.5)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Macnamara
Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: ALP Hold
Mallee
Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Nat Hold
Maribyrnong
Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
McEwen
Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Melbourne
Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib)
Prediction: Grn Hold
Menzies
Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Monash
Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Nicholls
Damian Drum (Nat 22.3)
Prediction: Nat Hold
Scullin
Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Wannon
Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Wills
Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8)
Prediction: ALP Hold

Western Australia

Brand
Madeleine King (ALP 11.4)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Burt
Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Canning
Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Cowan
Anne Aly (ALP 0.7)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Curtin
Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Durack
Melissa Price (Lib 11.1)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Forrest
Nola Marino (Lib 12.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fremantle
Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Hasluck
Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Moore
Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
O’Connor
Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Pearce
Christian Porter (Lib 3.6)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Perth
Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3)
Prediction: ALP Hold
Stirling
Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Swan
Steve Irons (Lib 3.6)
Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib
Tangney
Ben Morton (Lib 11.1)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 17 May 2019

The margin narrowed a little, but we predict that Labor will win Saturday’s election and Bill Shorten will become Australia’s 31st prime minister. For anything otherwise to happen on election night would be a catastrophe for Labor; the equivalent of John Hewson losing the “unloseable election” in 1993.

Labor has been in the lead in the opinion polls – literally – for years. The Coalition has taken hit after hit during the current parliament with nary a lifeline being thrown towards them. Bill Shorten and Labor will try to win one for Bob Hawke, which they probably would have done, anyway, even if the former prime minister had not passed away.

There is a very, very slim possibility that the Coalition will come out on top as they could make up some losses elsewhere in Queensland. All it takes is Labor fizzling out in another state to make this happen, but will it? I doubt it.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 5 May 2019

Our adjustment to the Australian federal election prediction is slightly more palatable for the Coalition, but the bottom line of a Labor victory is unchanged. This is even as polls like Newspoll show a narrow Labor advantage.

There are 151 races going on within Australia, and with less than two weeks to go until the vote, certain local and regional issues have taken hold, affecting national fortunes for the main parties. Below we have a look at the different states and territories and where we see this going down the stretch.

ACT and Northern Territory: Little to no chance of any of these seats straying from Labor.

New South Wales: The Coalition looks to be in for a bad night, but that does not mean all of the marginals will fall. Banks is one we feel the Coalition might hold because of the local member. Otherwise, they are going to take a hit. Cowper on the North Shore looks like one they will struggle to hold against former MP Rob Oakeshott. Gilmore, Reid, and Robertson are all in danger for the Coalition as well.

We’ve already told you about one independent in NSW, but what about two others? Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth is in a dogfight to hold the seat against the Liberals. This could be a photo finish, but for now we will go with Phelps again. As for Warringah, Tony Abbott’s seat, there have been rumblings that he may lose to independent candidate Zali Steggall. This is a see-it-to-believe-it proposition for us, given that Abbott is a former prime minister and Warringah is a safe Liberals seat. Yet, lots of people did not think Wentworth would fall to an independent and here we are. It could be a close call.

Queensland: Several Labor candidates in regional Queensland came out in support of Adani and the coal mining industry. Bill Shorten had to make a choice: embrace them and irritate his base, or punt on the issue and all but tell those Queensland Labor candidates they’re on their own. He chose the latter, so while Labor will do fine elsewhere, they could see a falling back in some seats they initially planned to win. We are looking at Capricornia, Dawson, and Herbert as possible success stories for the LNP, though we are not turning all of them over to Team Morrison yet. Labor will make gains elsewhere in Queensland, with Peter Dutton a possible casualty of the Coalition’s defeat.

South Australia: It’s not looking good for the Coalition here, who could be reduced to three seats. Boothby will be a top Labor target and the Liberals may have to work to keep Sturt upon Christopher Pyne’s retirement. The latter seems less likely as this has been a Liberal seat since 1972.

Tasmania: Tassie has the possibility of being a weird state on election night. Andrew Wilkie is fine in Clark and Julie Collins is as well in Franklin. Let’s focus on Bass, Braddon, and Lyons, all Labor seats. The Liberals had a shot in Lyons, but Jessica Whelan quit the race after an outcry over some of her social media posts. Bass and Braddon, the two northern seats, have swung towards the Coalition in the past, with Bass being a better chance for the Liberals this time. The Liberals are running a high-profile local candidate, Bridget Archer, in an electorate that could buck the national Labor tide.

Victoria: There’s nowhere to hide for the Coalition in Victoria, as Bill Shorten’s home state is going to get redder. The Coalition will lose several seats and may not even get Indi back as Cathy McGowan retires. Casey, Deakin, Flinders, and La Trobe are on the fringes of what the Liberals could lose while Chisholm, Corangamite, and Dunkley are all gone for the Coalition. Watch to see if the Greens can punch further into Melbourne, with Macnamara being a key target.

Western Australia: Relative to other states, WA might be a slight success story for the Liberals. Hasluck will be a problem, but they might actually reain seats like Curtin, Pearce, and Swan. Labor will have a tough ride in Cowan.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 8 April 2019

In our first wave of predictions, we are giving Labor a comfortable majority. You could see this coming from a mile or 1.61 km away, depending on your views of the metric and/or imperial systems.

The Coalition has over 50 Newspoll losses in a row, a number that has only grown in time. (Reference: Reuters) Even with a slight bounce after the budget, the numbers are not there for Scott Morrison and never have been. Morrison’s government appears to have a little over a month left to save itself, or at the very least, “save the furniture.” Kevin Rudd did that for Labor in 2013, sparing the party from what could have been a 95 to 100-seat Coalition rout. They got back into a position where they could come back within two elections. If they must go into opposition, that could be the Coalition’s best, realistic hope.

Had anyone told Labor after the 2013 landslide loss that they could be back in with a comfortable majority in 2019, every last one of them would have signed for that. Right now, that appears to be the trend.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019

Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.

The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.

Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links

Electoral Websites

Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.

Australian Electoral Commission

Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)

Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

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