Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?
The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).
Got all that?
Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?
Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.
In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.
NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Overall Outlook | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links
Australian Federal Election 2019 Date
None has been set yet, but we expect it to take place in May 2019. That’s up to Scott Morrison.
Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders
| Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister) |
| Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition) |
| Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister) |
| Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens) |
| Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party) |
| Vacant (Centre Alliance) |
| Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum
Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.
Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)
Click on thumbnails to enlarge.
| Marginal | Fairly Safe | Safe |
|---|---|---|
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Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Overall Election Outlook
The outlook was updated 20 January 2019. While we will do the seat-by-seat prediction, this is the overall picture. Short of putting forward odds, which is not for a website like this (but they do exist), this is where you find the likelihood of the election outcome.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current
First prediction coming soon
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions
We’re steering away from predicting the individual races for now, until we know for sure when the election will be. A lot can still change. Check back soon, but in the meantime, see the list of 151 below, the margins each party is defending, and if any current members are standing down.
Australian Capital Territory
| Bean |
|---|
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Canberra |
| Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fenner |
| Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
New South Wales
| Banks |
|---|
| David Coleman (Lib 1.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Barton |
| Linda Burney (ALP 8.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bennelong |
| John Alexander (Lib 9.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Berowra |
| Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Blaxland |
| Jason Clare (ALP 19.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bradfield |
| Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Calare |
| Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Chifley |
| Ed Husic (ALP 19.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Cook |
| Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Cowper |
| Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Cunningham |
| Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Dobell |
| Emma McBride (ALP 4.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Eden-Monaro |
| Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Farrer |
| Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fowler |
| Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Gilmore |
| Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Grayndler |
| Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Greenway |
| Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hughes |
| Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hume |
| Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hunter |
| Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Kingsford Smith |
| Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Lindsay |
| Emma Husar (ALP 1.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Lyne |
| David Gillespie (Nat 11.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Macarthur |
| Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Mackellar |
| Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Macquarie |
| Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| McMahon |
| Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Mitchell |
| Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Newcastle |
| Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| New England |
| Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| North Sydney |
| Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Page |
| Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Parkes |
| Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Parramatta |
| Julie Owens (ALP 7.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Paterson |
| Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Reid |
| Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Richmond |
| Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Riverina |
| Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Robertson |
| Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Shortland |
| Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Sydney |
| Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Warringah |
| Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Watson |
| Tony Burke (ALP 17.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Wentworth |
| Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Werriwa |
| Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Whitlam |
| Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Northern Territory
| Lingiari |
|---|
| Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Solomon |
| Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Queensland
| Blair |
|---|
| Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bonner |
| Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bowman |
| Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Brisbane |
| Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Capricornia |
| Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Dawson |
| George Christensen (LNP 3.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Dickson |
| Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fadden |
| Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fairfax |
| Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fisher |
| Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Flynn |
| Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Forde |
| Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Griffith |
| Terri Butler (ALP 1.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Groom |
| John McVeigh (LNP 15.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Herbert |
| Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hinkler |
| Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Kennedy |
| Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Leichhardt |
| Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Lilley |
| Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Longman |
| Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Maranoa |
| David Littleproud (LNP 17.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| McPherson |
| Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Moncrieff |
| Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Moreton |
| Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Oxley |
| Milton Dick (ALP 9.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Petrie |
| Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Rankin |
| Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Ryan |
| Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Wide Bay |
| Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Wright |
| Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
South Australia
| Adelaide |
|---|
| Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Barker |
| Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Boothby |
| Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Grey |
| Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hindmarsh |
| Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Kingston |
| Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Makin |
| Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Mayo |
| Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Spence |
| Nick Champion (ALP 17.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Sturt |
| Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Tasmania
| Bass |
|---|
| Ross Hart (ALP 5.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Braddon |
| Justine Keay (ALP 1.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Clark |
| Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Franklin |
| Julie Collins (ALP 10.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Lyons |
| Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Victoria
| Aston |
|---|
| Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Ballarat |
| Catherine King (ALP 7.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bendigo |
| Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Bruce |
| Julian Hill (ALP 15.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Calwell |
| Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Casey |
| Tony Smith (Lib 4.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Chisholm |
| Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Cooper |
| Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Corangamite |
| Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Corio |
| Richard Marles (ALP 8.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Deakin |
| Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Dunkley |
| Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Flinders |
| Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fraser |
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Gellibrand |
| Tim Watts (ALP 14.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Gippsland |
| Darren Chester (Nat 18.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Goldstein |
| Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Gorton |
| Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Higgins |
| Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Holt |
| Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hotham |
| Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Indi |
| Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Isaacs |
| Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Jagajaga |
| Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Kooyong |
| Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Lalor |
| Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| La Trobe |
| Jason Wood (Lib 3.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Macnamara |
| Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Mallee |
| Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Maribyrnong |
| Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| McEwen |
| Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Melbourne |
| Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Menzies |
| Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Monash |
| Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Nicholls |
| Damian Drum (Nat 22.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Scullin |
| Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Wannon |
| Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Wills |
| Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Western Australia
| Brand |
|---|
| Madeleine King (ALP 11.4) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Burt |
| Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Canning |
| Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Cowan |
| Anne Aly (ALP 0.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Curtin |
| Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Durack |
| Melissa Price (Lib 11.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Forrest |
| Nola Marino (Lib 12.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Fremantle |
| Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Hasluck |
| Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Moore |
| Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| O’Connor |
| Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Pearce |
| Christian Porter (Lib 3.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Perth |
| Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Stirling |
| Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Swan |
| Steve Irons (Lib 3.6) |
| No Prediction Yet |
| Tangney |
| Ben Morton (Lib 11.1) |
| No Prediction Yet |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019
Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.
The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.
Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links
Electoral Websites
Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.
Australian Electoral Commission
Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)
Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
