Australian Federal Election 2019 Predictions and Results

A new government down under?

Australian Federal Election 2019

Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?

The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).

Got all that?

Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?

Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.

In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.

NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Overall Outlook | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links

Australian Federal Election 2019 Date

None has been set yet, but we expect it to take place in May 2019. That’s up to Scott Morrison.

Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders

Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister)
Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition)
Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister)
Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens)
Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party)
Vacant (Centre Alliance)
Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation)

Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum

Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.

Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)

Click on thumbnails to enlarge.

Marginal Fairly Safe Safe
Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum marginal seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum fairly safe seats Australian Federal Election 2019 pendulum safe seats

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Overall Election Outlook

The outlook was updated 20 January 2019. While we will do the seat-by-seat prediction, this is the overall picture. Short of putting forward odds, which is not for a website like this (but they do exist), this is where you find the likelihood of the election outcome.

Australian Federal Election 2019 outlook - 20 Jan 2019

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current

First prediction coming soon

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions

We’re steering away from predicting the individual races for now, until we know for sure when the election will be. A lot can still change. Check back soon, but in the meantime, see the list of 151 below, the margins each party is defending, and if any current members are standing down.

Australian Capital Territory

Bean
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9)
No Prediction Yet
Canberra
Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Fenner
Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6)
No Prediction Yet

New South Wales

Banks
David Coleman (Lib 1.4)
No Prediction Yet
Barton
Linda Burney (ALP 8.3)
No Prediction Yet
Bennelong
John Alexander (Lib 9.7)
No Prediction Yet
Berowra
Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5)
No Prediction Yet
Blaxland
Jason Clare (ALP 19.5)
No Prediction Yet
Bradfield
Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0)
No Prediction Yet
Calare
Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8)
No Prediction Yet
Chifley
Ed Husic (ALP 19.2)
No Prediction Yet
Cook
Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4)
No Prediction Yet
Cowper
Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Cunningham
Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3)
No Prediction Yet
Dobell
Emma McBride (ALP 4.8)
No Prediction Yet
Eden-Monaro
Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9)
No Prediction Yet
Farrer
Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5)
No Prediction Yet
Fowler
Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5)
No Prediction Yet
Gilmore
Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Grayndler
Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN)
No Prediction Yet
Greenway
Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3)
No Prediction Yet
Hughes
Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3)
No Prediction Yet
Hume
Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2)
No Prediction Yet
Hunter
Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5)
No Prediction Yet
Kingsford Smith
Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6)
No Prediction Yet
Lindsay
Emma Husar (ALP 1.1)
No Prediction Yet
Lyne
David Gillespie (Nat 11.6)
No Prediction Yet
Macarthur
Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3)
No Prediction Yet
Mackellar
Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7)
No Prediction Yet
Macquarie
Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2)
No Prediction Yet
McMahon
Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1)
No Prediction Yet
Mitchell
Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8)
No Prediction Yet
Newcastle
Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8)
No Prediction Yet
New England
Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4)
No Prediction Yet
North Sydney
Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6)
No Prediction Yet
Page
Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP)
No Prediction Yet
Parkes
Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1)
No Prediction Yet
Parramatta
Julie Owens (ALP 7.7)
No Prediction Yet
Paterson
Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7)
No Prediction Yet
Reid
Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7)
No Prediction Yet
Richmond
Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0)
No Prediction Yet
Riverina
Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4)
No Prediction Yet
Robertson
Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1)
No Prediction Yet
Shortland
Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9)
No Prediction Yet
Sydney
Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3)
No Prediction Yet
Warringah
Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn)
No Prediction Yet
Watson
Tony Burke (ALP 17.6)
No Prediction Yet
Wentworth
Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib)
No Prediction Yet
Werriwa
Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2)
No Prediction Yet
Whitlam
Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7)
No Prediction Yet

Northern Territory

Lingiari
Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1)
No Prediction Yet
Solomon
Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1)
No Prediction Yet

Queensland

Blair
Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0)
No Prediction Yet
Bonner
Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4)
No Prediction Yet
Bowman
Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1)
No Prediction Yet
Brisbane
Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0)
No Prediction Yet
Capricornia
Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6)
No Prediction Yet
Dawson
George Christensen (LNP 3.4)
No Prediction Yet
Dickson
Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0)
No Prediction Yet
Fadden
Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2)
No Prediction Yet
Fairfax
Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0)
No Prediction Yet
Fisher
Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2)
No Prediction Yet
Flynn
Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0)
No Prediction Yet
Forde
Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7)
No Prediction Yet
Griffith
Terri Butler (ALP 1.4)
No Prediction Yet
Groom
John McVeigh (LNP 15.3)
No Prediction Yet
Herbert
Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02)
No Prediction Yet
Hinkler
Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4)
No Prediction Yet
Kennedy
Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP)
No Prediction Yet
Leichhardt
Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0)
No Prediction Yet
Lilley
Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Longman
Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8)
No Prediction Yet
Maranoa
David Littleproud (LNP 17.5)
No Prediction Yet
McPherson
Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6)
No Prediction Yet
Moncrieff
Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5)
No Prediction Yet
Moreton
Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0)
No Prediction Yet
Oxley
Milton Dick (ALP 9.1)
No Prediction Yet
Petrie
Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7)
No Prediction Yet
Rankin
Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3)
No Prediction Yet
Ryan
Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8)
No Prediction Yet
Wide Bay
Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3)
No Prediction Yet
Wright
Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6)
No Prediction Yet

South Australia

Adelaide
Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Barker
Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3)
No Prediction Yet
Boothby
Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8)
No Prediction Yet
Grey
Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5)
No Prediction Yet
Hindmarsh
Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2)
No Prediction Yet
Kingston
Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5)
No Prediction Yet
Makin
Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9)
No Prediction Yet
Mayo
Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib)
No Prediction Yet
Spence
Nick Champion (ALP 17.9)
No Prediction Yet
Sturt
Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8)
No Prediction Yet

Tasmania

Bass
Ross Hart (ALP 5.3)
No Prediction Yet
Braddon
Justine Keay (ALP 1.5)
No Prediction Yet
Clark
Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP)
No Prediction Yet
Franklin
Julie Collins (ALP 10.7)
No Prediction Yet
Lyons
Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0)
No Prediction Yet

Victoria

Aston
Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6)
No Prediction Yet
Ballarat
Catherine King (ALP 7.4)
No Prediction Yet
Bendigo
Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9)
No Prediction Yet
Bruce
Julian Hill (ALP 15.7)
No Prediction Yet
Calwell
Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1)
No Prediction Yet
Casey
Tony Smith (Lib 4.5)
No Prediction Yet
Chisholm
Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP)
No Prediction Yet
Cooper
Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn)
No Prediction Yet
Corangamite
Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat
No Prediction Yet
Corio
Richard Marles (ALP 8.3)
No Prediction Yet
Deakin
Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3)
No Prediction Yet
Dunkley
Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat
No Prediction Yet
Flinders
Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2)
No Prediction Yet
Fraser
No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6)
No Prediction Yet
Gellibrand
Tim Watts (ALP 14.7)
No Prediction Yet
Gippsland
Darren Chester (Nat 18.2)
No Prediction Yet
Goldstein
Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7)
No Prediction Yet
Gorton
Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3)
No Prediction Yet
Higgins
Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Holt
Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9)
No Prediction Yet
Hotham
Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2)
No Prediction Yet
Indi
Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Isaacs
Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3)
No Prediction Yet
Jagajaga
Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Kooyong
Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8)
No Prediction Yet
Lalor
Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4)
No Prediction Yet
La Trobe
Jason Wood (Lib 3.5)
No Prediction Yet
Macnamara
Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Mallee
Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Maribyrnong
Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4)
No Prediction Yet
McEwen
Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3)
No Prediction Yet
Melbourne
Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib)
No Prediction Yet
Menzies
Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9)
No Prediction Yet
Monash
Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6)
No Prediction Yet
Nicholls
Damian Drum (Nat 22.3)
No Prediction Yet
Scullin
Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4)
No Prediction Yet
Wannon
Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3)
No Prediction Yet
Wills
Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8)
No Prediction Yet

Western Australia

Brand
Madeleine King (ALP 11.4)
No Prediction Yet
Burt
Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1)
No Prediction Yet
Canning
Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8)
No Prediction Yet
Cowan
Anne Aly (ALP 0.7)
No Prediction Yet
Curtin
Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7)
No Prediction Yet
Durack
Melissa Price (Lib 11.1)
No Prediction Yet
Forrest
Nola Marino (Lib 12.6)
No Prediction Yet
Fremantle
Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5)
No Prediction Yet
Hasluck
Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1)
No Prediction Yet
Moore
Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0)
No Prediction Yet
O’Connor
Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0)
No Prediction Yet
Pearce
Christian Porter (Lib 3.6)
No Prediction Yet
Perth
Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3)
No Prediction Yet
Stirling
Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election
No Prediction Yet
Swan
Steve Irons (Lib 3.6)
No Prediction Yet
Tangney
Ben Morton (Lib 11.1)
No Prediction Yet

Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019

Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.

The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.

Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.

Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links

Electoral Websites

Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.

Australian Electoral Commission

Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)

Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

Now For Your Commentary

Font Resize
Contrast

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close