Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?
The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).
Got all that?
Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?
Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.
In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.
NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links
Australian Federal Election 2019 Date
The election date was set for Saturday, May 18th.
Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders
| Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister) |
| Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition) |
| Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister) |
| Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens) |
| Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party) |
| Vacant (Centre Alliance) |
| Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum
Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.
Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)
Click on thumbnails to enlarge.
| Marginal | Fairly Safe | Safe |
|---|---|---|
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Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current
High-Low Seat Ranges
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions
We’re steering away from predicting the individual races for now, until we know for sure when the election will be. A lot can still change. Check back soon, but in the meantime, see the list of 151 below, the margins each party is defending, and if any current members are standing down.
Australian Capital Territory
| Bean |
|---|
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Win |
| Canberra |
| Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Fenner |
| Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
New South Wales
| Banks |
|---|
| David Coleman (Lib 1.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Barton |
| Linda Burney (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bennelong |
| John Alexander (Lib 9.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Berowra |
| Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Blaxland |
| Jason Clare (ALP 19.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bradfield |
| Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Calare |
| Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Chifley |
| Ed Husic (ALP 19.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Cook |
| Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Cowper |
| Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Cunningham |
| Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Dobell |
| Emma McBride (ALP 4.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Eden-Monaro |
| Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Farrer |
| Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fowler |
| Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Gilmore |
| Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Grayndler |
| Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Greenway |
| Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hughes |
| Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hume |
| Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hunter |
| Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kingsford Smith |
| Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lindsay |
| Emma Husar (ALP 1.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lyne |
| David Gillespie (Nat 11.6) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Macarthur |
| Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mackellar |
| Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Macquarie |
| Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| McMahon |
| Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mitchell |
| Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Newcastle |
| Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| New England |
| Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| North Sydney |
| Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Page |
| Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Parkes |
| Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Parramatta |
| Julie Owens (ALP 7.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Paterson |
| Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Reid |
| Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Richmond |
| Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Riverina |
| Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Robertson |
| Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Shortland |
| Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Sydney |
| Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Warringah |
| Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Watson |
| Tony Burke (ALP 17.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Wentworth |
| Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Werriwa |
| Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Whitlam |
| Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Northern Territory
| Lingiari |
|---|
| Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Solomon |
| Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Queensland
| Blair |
|---|
| Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bonner |
| Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Bowman |
| Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Brisbane |
| Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Capricornia |
| Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Dawson |
| George Christensen (LNP 3.4) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Dickson |
| Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Fadden |
| Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Fairfax |
| Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Fisher |
| Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Flynn |
| Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Forde |
| Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Griffith |
| Terri Butler (ALP 1.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Groom |
| John McVeigh (LNP 15.3) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Herbert |
| Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hinkler |
| Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Kennedy |
| Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: KAP Hold |
| Leichhardt |
| Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Lilley |
| Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Longman |
| Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Maranoa |
| David Littleproud (LNP 17.5) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| McPherson |
| Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Moncrieff |
| Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Moreton |
| Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Oxley |
| Milton Dick (ALP 9.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Petrie |
| Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Rankin |
| Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Ryan |
| Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Wide Bay |
| Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Wright |
| Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
South Australia
| Adelaide |
|---|
| Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Barker |
| Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Boothby |
| Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Grey |
| Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hindmarsh |
| Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kingston |
| Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Makin |
| Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mayo |
| Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: CA Hold |
| Spence |
| Nick Champion (ALP 17.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Sturt |
| Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Tasmania
| Bass |
|---|
| Ross Hart (ALP 5.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Braddon |
| Justine Keay (ALP 1.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Clark |
| Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Franklin |
| Julie Collins (ALP 10.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lyons |
| Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Victoria
| Aston |
|---|
| Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Ballarat |
| Catherine King (ALP 7.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bendigo |
| Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bruce |
| Julian Hill (ALP 15.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Calwell |
| Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Casey |
| Tony Smith (Lib 4.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Chisholm |
| Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP) – Running in Flinders |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Ind |
| Cooper |
| Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Corangamite |
| Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Corio |
| Richard Marles (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Deakin |
| Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Dunkley |
| Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Flinders |
| Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fraser |
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Win |
| Gellibrand |
| Tim Watts (ALP 14.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Gippsland |
| Darren Chester (Nat 18.2) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Goldstein |
| Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Gorton |
| Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Higgins |
| Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Holt |
| Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hotham |
| Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Indi |
| Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind |
| Isaacs |
| Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Jagajaga |
| Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kooyong |
| Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Lalor |
| Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| La Trobe |
| Jason Wood (Lib 3.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Macnamara |
| Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mallee |
| Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Maribyrnong |
| Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| McEwen |
| Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Melbourne |
| Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| Menzies |
| Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Monash |
| Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Nicholls |
| Damian Drum (Nat 22.3) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Scullin |
| Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Wannon |
| Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wills |
| Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Western Australia
| Brand |
|---|
| Madeleine King (ALP 11.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Burt |
| Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Canning |
| Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Cowan |
| Anne Aly (ALP 0.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Curtin |
| Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Durack |
| Melissa Price (Lib 11.1) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Forrest |
| Nola Marino (Lib 12.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fremantle |
| Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hasluck |
| Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Moore |
| Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| O’Connor |
| Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Pearce |
| Christian Porter (Lib 3.6) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Perth |
| Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Stirling |
| Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Swan |
| Steve Irons (Lib 3.6) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Tangney |
| Ben Morton (Lib 11.1) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 8 April 2019
In our first wave of predictions, we are giving Labor a comfortable majority. You could see this coming from a mile or 1.61 km away, depending on your views of the metric and/or imperial systems.
The Coalition has over 50 Newspoll losses in a row, a number that has only grown in time. (Reference: Reuters) Even with a slight bounce after the budget, the numbers are not there for Scott Morrison and never have been. Morrison’s government appears to have a little over a month left to save itself, or at the very least, “save the furniture.” Kevin Rudd did that for Labor in 2013, sparing the party from what could have been a 95 to 100-seat Coalition rout. They got back into a position where they could come back within two elections. If they must go into opposition, that could be the Coalition’s best, realistic hope.
Had anyone told Labor after the 2013 landslide loss that they could be back in with a comfortable majority in 2019, every last one of them would have signed for that. Right now, that appears to be the trend.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019
Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.
The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.
Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links
Electoral Websites
Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.
Australian Electoral Commission
Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)
Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
