Australian Federal Election 2019 is upon us. Who will win the Australian election and form the next government in Canberra?
The last three years have been rocky for the Liberal-National Coalition, reminiscent of the dying days of the Labor government in 2013. In that situation, a prime minister (Kevin Rudd) was taken out by a political foe (Julia Gillard), who was then taken out by the former prime minister (Rudd) right before the election, only to lose in a landslide. Entering 2019’s vote, a prime minister (Malcolm Turnbull) that took out the guy who ousted him from the leadership lo those years ago (Tony Abbott) was himself betrayed by his political adversaries right before an election, resulting in the current prime minister (Scott Morrison).
Got all that?
Morrison hopes his fate will not be the same as Kevin Rudd’s in 2013, but Labor have been riding high in the opinion polls for most of this government’s present mandate. Will they finish the deal and win the 2019 federal election, or will Morrison’s Coalition stage one of Australia’s most improbable political comebacks? Further, is there room for a minor party, like the Greens, Centre Alliance, or One Nation, to shift the balance of power?
Because of a by-election defeat in Wentworth, the Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in 2018. If they do not defy the odds, they will be sent to the opposition benches soon. We will predict this election seat-by-seat, as is tradition, and let you know what’s going to happen.
In another new wrinkle, the House of Representatives will increase by one seat to 151.
NAVIGATE AUSTRALIA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | Pendulum | Results | Final Analysis | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links
Australian Federal Election 2019 Date
The election date was set for Saturday, May 18th.
Australian Federal Election 2019: Major Party Leaders
| Scott Morrison MP (Liberal, Prime Minister) |
| Bill Shorten MP (Labor, Leader of the Opposition) |
| Michael McCormack MP (National, Deputy Prime Minister) |
| Senator Richard Di Natale (Greens) |
| Bob Katter MP (Katter’s Australian Party) |
| Vacant (Centre Alliance) |
| Senator Pauline Hanson (One Nation) |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Pendulum
Because Australia’s House of Representatives has 151 seats, we could easily say we’re not going to give you all of the seats and just stick to the marginals. What kind of election website hosts would we be if we did that? If it’s as wild an election as we suspect, more than marginal seats may be in play. We are ready for said contingencies by keeping you informed with the best-looking Mackerras pendulum in the business.
Source for federal redistribution figures: Antony Green, ABC Elections (Link: Australian Broadcasting Corp.)
Click on thumbnails to enlarge.
| Marginal | Fairly Safe | Safe |
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Australian Federal Election 2019 Results
Results Maps
Map detail across Australia — click thumbnails to enlarge.
| ACT | Adelaide | Brisbane | Brisbane Surrounds |
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| Melbourne | Melbourne Surrounds | NSW | NT |
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| Perth | QLD | SA | Sydney |
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| Sydney Surrounds | TAS | VIC | WA |
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Seats Changing Hands
Please note: at this time, Macquarie (NSW) is still too close to call but the Liberals are ahead of Labor, which would be another gain.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Final Analysis
Scott Morrison is prime minister of Australia, and not handing over power to Bill Shorten and Labor. Wait, what?
Oh, you, like the rest of us, must have been following the public opinion polls for the last several years. You know, the ones that said Malcolm Turnbull would lose the 2019 federal election, and then, Scott Morrison. Except he did not, even when said polls indicated Labor was on track for a majority.
Just think, including the polls, things were getting grave for the Coalition. The Liberal leadership bloodbath (not merely a spill) in 2018 left a bad taste with some voters while the Liberals then went on to lose Wentworth, a safe seat, in a by-election.
How did the polls get it so wrong in Australia on such a consistent basis? Furthermore, what went wrong for Labor?
Bill Shorten pulled a John Hewson: he lost the “unloseable election,” except this time, it was Labor on the losing end. Despite being on the losing end of almost every opinion poll for the past two years, the Coalition pulled one of the most shocking majority victories in decades.
Few expected Scott Morrison to remain prime minister at the time of this writing, 21 May 2019. One might have thought Bill Shorten would be putting together his cabinet. Instead, Labor is still in opposition, broken and installing a new leader, Anthony Albanese.
It would be meaningless for us to try to employ too much 20/20 hindsight on things we weren’t saying during the campaign. For example, we will not say, “you know, now that you mentioned it, Labor ran a really bad campaign and we should have seen this coming” because nobody was saying that. We can, however, say this, and nobody will dispute it: the polls were very, very, very wrong, perhaps as wrong as they have ever been in a modern Australian election. All we had were indications that the race might be tightening and not the blowout we expected at the start of the year.
Whether because of Adani, preference flows, both, or neither, Queensland in particular railroaded Labor out of the gate. They had a terrible night in the northeast of Australia, losing several marginals, failing to gain any from the LNP, and almost shedding safe seats like Lilley. It was one thing for this to happen north of Brisbane as we expected, but quite another further down the coast. Labor’s hopes of knocking off Peter Dutton, Bert van Manen, Ross Vasta, and Luke Howarth went down the tubes in spectacular fashion.
This made Labor’s job harder elsewhere, but then, the unthinkable: Labor did not make those losses up elsewhere in any significant way. Gilmore (NSW) was their only success story anywhere in Australia, and even that was more difficult than expected. Other than the two Victorian Liberal seats that were redistributed into the Labor column, they did not gain a single other seat. In fact, they lost others: Bass and Braddon in Tasmania and perhaps Macquarie in New South Wales. The Labor wave never happened.
Pollsters have a tough gig sometimes. You never know if the person answering the phone or filling out the survey is stating their honest voting intention. However, that excuse only goes so far considering how long a Labor victory was predicted. It was almost a sure bet. Almost.
Labor is in the unexpected position of rebuilding once more despite believing they would be in government today. As for the Coalition, they have three years of surprise government gifted to them.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: House of Representatives Current
High-Low Seat Ranges
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Seat-By-Seat Predictions
Australian Capital Territory
| Bean |
|---|
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 8.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Win |
| Canberra |
| Gai Brodtmann (ALP 13.2) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Fenner |
| Andrew Leigh (ALP 11.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
New South Wales
| Banks |
|---|
| David Coleman (Lib 1.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Barton |
| Linda Burney (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bennelong |
| John Alexander (Lib 9.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Berowra |
| Julian Leeser (Lib 16.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Blaxland |
| Jason Clare (ALP 19.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bradfield |
| Paul Fletcher (Lib 21.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Calare |
| Andrew Gee (Nat 11.8) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Chifley |
| Ed Husic (ALP 19.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Cook |
| Scott Morrison (Lib 15.4) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Cowper |
| Luke Hartsuyker (Nat 12.6) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Ind GAIN from Nat |
| Cunningham |
| Sharon Bird (ALP 13.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Dobell |
| Emma McBride (ALP 4.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Eden-Monaro |
| Mike Kelly (ALP 2.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Farrer |
| Sussan Ley (Lib 20.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fowler |
| Chris Hayes (ALP 17.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Gilmore |
| Ann Sudmalis (Lib 0.7) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Grayndler |
| Anthony Albanese (ALP 15.8 vs. GRN) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Greenway |
| Michelle Rowland (ALP 6.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hughes |
| Craig Kelly (Lib 9.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hume |
| Angus Taylor (Lib 10.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hunter |
| Joel Fitzgibbon (ALP 12.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kingsford Smith |
| Matt Thistlethwaite (ALP 8.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lindsay |
| Emma Husar (ALP 1.1) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib GAIN from ALP |
| Lyne |
| David Gillespie (Nat 11.6) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Macarthur |
| Mike Freelander (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mackellar |
| Jason Falinski (Lib 15.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Macquarie |
| Susan Templeman (ALP 2.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| McMahon |
| Chris Bowen (ALP 12.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mitchell |
| Alex Hawke (Lib 17.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Newcastle |
| Sharon Claydon (ALP 13.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| New England |
| Barnaby Joyce (Nat 16.4) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| North Sydney |
| Trent Zimmerman (Lib 13.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Page |
| Kevin Hogan (Nat 2.3 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Parkes |
| Mark Coulton (Nat 15.1) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Parramatta |
| Julie Owens (ALP 7.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Paterson |
| Merly Swanson (ALP 10.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Reid |
| Craig Laundy (Lib 4.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Richmond |
| Justine Elliot (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Riverina |
| Michael McCormack (Nat 16.4) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Robertson |
| Lucy Wicks (Lib 1.1) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Shortland |
| Pat Conroy (ALP 9.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Sydney |
| Tanya Plibersek (ALP 15.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Warringah |
| Tony Abbott (Lib 11.6 vs Grn) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Watson |
| Tony Burke (ALP 17.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Wentworth |
| Kerryn Phelps (Ind 1.2 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Werriwa |
| Anne Stanley (ALP 8.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Whitlam |
| Stephen Jones (ALP 13.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Northern Territory
| Lingiari |
|---|
| Warren Snowdon (ALP 8.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Solomon |
| Luke Gosling (ALP 6.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Queensland
| Blair |
|---|
| Shayne Neumann (ALP 8.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bonner |
| Ross Vasta (LNP 3.4) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Bowman |
| Andrew Laming (LNP 7.1) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Brisbane |
| Trevor Evans (LNP 6.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Capricornia |
| Michelle Landry (LNP 0.6) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Dawson |
| George Christensen (LNP 3.4) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Dickson |
| Peter Dutton (LNP 2.0) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Fadden |
| Stuart Robert (LNP 11.2) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Fairfax |
| Ted O’Brien (LNP 11.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Fisher |
| Andrew Wallace (LNP 9.2) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Flynn |
| Ken O’Dowd (LNP 1.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Forde |
| Bert van Manen (LNP 0.7) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Griffith |
| Terri Butler (ALP 1.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Groom |
| John McVeigh (LNP 15.3) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Herbert |
| Cathy O’Toole (ALP 0.02) |
| Prediction: LNP GAIN from ALP |
| Hinkler |
| Keith Pitt (LNP 8.4) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Kennedy |
| Bob Katter (KAP 6.7 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: KAP Hold |
| Leichhardt |
| Warren Entsch (LNP 4.0) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Lilley |
| Wayne Swan (ALP 5.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Longman |
| Susan Lamb (ALP 0.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Maranoa |
| David Littleproud (LNP 17.5) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| McPherson |
| Karen Andrews (LNP 11.6) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Moncrieff |
| Steven Ciobo (LNP 14.5) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Moreton |
| Graham Perrett (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Oxley |
| Milton Dick (ALP 9.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Petrie |
| Luke Howarth (LNP 1.7) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Rankin |
| Jim Chalmers (ALP 11.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Ryan |
| Jane Prentice (LNP 8.8) – Lost Preselection |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Wide Bay |
| Llew O’Brien (LNP 8.3) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
| Wright |
| Scott Buchholz (LNP 9.6) |
| Prediction: LNP Hold |
South Australia
| Adelaide |
|---|
| Kate Ellis (ALP 9.0) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Barker |
| Tony Pasin (Lib 14.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Boothby |
| Nicolle Flint (Lib 2.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Grey |
| Rowan Ramsey (Lib 8.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Hindmarsh |
| Steve Georganas (ALP 8.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kingston |
| Amanda Rishworth (ALP 13.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Makin |
| Tony Zappia (ALP 10.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mayo |
| Rebekha Sharkie (CA 5.5 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: CA Hold |
| Spence |
| Nick Champion (ALP 17.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Sturt |
| Christopher Pyne (Lib 5.8) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Tasmania
| Bass |
|---|
| Ross Hart (ALP 5.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Braddon |
| Justine Keay (ALP 1.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Clark |
| Andrew Wilkie (Ind 17.8 vs ALP) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Franklin |
| Julie Collins (ALP 10.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Lyons |
| Brian Mitchell (ALP 4.0) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Victoria
| Aston |
|---|
| Alan Tudge (Lib 7.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Ballarat |
| Catherine King (ALP 7.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bendigo |
| Lisa Chesters (ALP 3.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Bruce |
| Julian Hill (ALP 15.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Calwell |
| Maria Vamvakinou (ALP 20.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Casey |
| Tony Smith (Lib 4.5) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Chisholm |
| Julia Banks (Ind 3.4 Lib vs ALP) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Ind |
| Cooper |
| Ged Kearney (ALP 0.6 vs Grn) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Corangamite |
| Sarah Henderson (Lib -0.03) — Notional ALP Seat |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Corio |
| Richard Marles (ALP 8.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Deakin |
| Michael Sukkar (Lib 6.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Dunkley |
| Chris Crewther (Lib -1.3) — Notional ALP Seat |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Flinders |
| Greg Hunt (Lib 7.2) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fraser |
| No Member – New Electorate (ALP notional 20.6) |
| Prediction: ALP Win |
| Gellibrand |
| Tim Watts (ALP 14.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Gippsland |
| Darren Chester (Nat 18.2) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Goldstein |
| Tim Wilson (Lib 12.7) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Gorton |
| Brendan O’Connor (ALP 18.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Higgins |
| Kelly O’Dwyer (Lib 10.2 vs ALP) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Holt |
| Anthony Byrne (ALP 9.9) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hotham |
| Clare O’Neil (ALP 4.2) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Indi |
| Cathy McGowan (Ind 4.1 vs Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind |
| Isaacs |
| Mark Dreyfus (ALP 2.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Jagajaga |
| Jenny Macklin (ALP 5.0) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Kooyong |
| Josh Frydenberg (Lib 12.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Lalor |
| Joanne Ryan (ALP 14.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| La Trobe |
| Jason Wood (Lib 3.5) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Macnamara |
| Michael Danby (ALP 1.3) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Mallee |
| Andrew Broad (Nat 19.8) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Maribyrnong |
| Bill Shorten (ALP 9.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| McEwen |
| Rob Mitchell (ALP 5.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Melbourne |
| Adam Bandt (Grn 17.0 vs Lib) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| Menzies |
| Kevin Andrews (Lib 7.9) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Monash |
| Russell Broadbent (Lib 7.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Nicholls |
| Damian Drum (Nat 22.3) |
| Prediction: Nat Hold |
| Scullin |
| Andrew Giles (ALP 20.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Wannon |
| Dan Tehan (Lib 9.3) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Wills |
| Peter Khalil (ALP 21.8) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
Western Australia
| Brand |
|---|
| Madeleine King (ALP 11.4) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Burt |
| Matt Keogh (ALP 7.1) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Canning |
| Andrew Hastie (Lib 6.8) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Cowan |
| Anne Aly (ALP 0.7) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Curtin |
| Julie Bishop (Lib 20.7) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Durack |
| Melissa Price (Lib 11.1) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Forrest |
| Nola Marino (Lib 12.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fremantle |
| Josh Wilson (ALP 7.5) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Hasluck |
| Ken Wyatt (Lib 2.1) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Moore |
| Ian Goodenough (Lib 11.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| O’Connor |
| Rick Wilson (Lib 15.0) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Pearce |
| Christian Porter (Lib 3.6) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Perth |
| Patrick Gorman (ALP 3.3) |
| Prediction: ALP Hold |
| Stirling |
| Michael Keenan (Lib 6.1) — Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Swan |
| Steve Irons (Lib 3.6) |
| Prediction: ALP GAIN from Lib |
| Tangney |
| Ben Morton (Lib 11.1) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 17 May 2019
The margin narrowed a little, but we predict that Labor will win Saturday’s election and Bill Shorten will become Australia’s 31st prime minister. For anything otherwise to happen on election night would be a catastrophe for Labor; the equivalent of John Hewson losing the “unloseable election” in 1993.
Labor has been in the lead in the opinion polls – literally – for years. The Coalition has taken hit after hit during the current parliament with nary a lifeline being thrown towards them. Bill Shorten and Labor will try to win one for Bob Hawke, which they probably would have done, anyway, even if the former prime minister had not passed away.
There is a very, very slim possibility that the Coalition will come out on top as they could make up some losses elsewhere in Queensland. All it takes is Labor fizzling out in another state to make this happen, but will it? I doubt it.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 5 May 2019
Our adjustment to the Australian federal election prediction is slightly more palatable for the Coalition, but the bottom line of a Labor victory is unchanged. This is even as polls like Newspoll show a narrow Labor advantage.
There are 151 races going on within Australia, and with less than two weeks to go until the vote, certain local and regional issues have taken hold, affecting national fortunes for the main parties. Below we have a look at the different states and territories and where we see this going down the stretch.
ACT and Northern Territory: Little to no chance of any of these seats straying from Labor.
New South Wales: The Coalition looks to be in for a bad night, but that does not mean all of the marginals will fall. Banks is one we feel the Coalition might hold because of the local member. Otherwise, they are going to take a hit. Cowper on the North Shore looks like one they will struggle to hold against former MP Rob Oakeshott. Gilmore, Reid, and Robertson are all in danger for the Coalition as well.
We’ve already told you about one independent in NSW, but what about two others? Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth is in a dogfight to hold the seat against the Liberals. This could be a photo finish, but for now we will go with Phelps again. As for Warringah, Tony Abbott’s seat, there have been rumblings that he may lose to independent candidate Zali Steggall. This is a see-it-to-believe-it proposition for us, given that Abbott is a former prime minister and Warringah is a safe Liberals seat. Yet, lots of people did not think Wentworth would fall to an independent and here we are. It could be a close call.
Queensland: Several Labor candidates in regional Queensland came out in support of Adani and the coal mining industry. Bill Shorten had to make a choice: embrace them and irritate his base, or punt on the issue and all but tell those Queensland Labor candidates they’re on their own. He chose the latter, so while Labor will do fine elsewhere, they could see a falling back in some seats they initially planned to win. We are looking at Capricornia, Dawson, and Herbert as possible success stories for the LNP, though we are not turning all of them over to Team Morrison yet. Labor will make gains elsewhere in Queensland, with Peter Dutton a possible casualty of the Coalition’s defeat.
South Australia: It’s not looking good for the Coalition here, who could be reduced to three seats. Boothby will be a top Labor target and the Liberals may have to work to keep Sturt upon Christopher Pyne’s retirement. The latter seems less likely as this has been a Liberal seat since 1972.
Tasmania: Tassie has the possibility of being a weird state on election night. Andrew Wilkie is fine in Clark and Julie Collins is as well in Franklin. Let’s focus on Bass, Braddon, and Lyons, all Labor seats. The Liberals had a shot in Lyons, but Jessica Whelan quit the race after an outcry over some of her social media posts. Bass and Braddon, the two northern seats, have swung towards the Coalition in the past, with Bass being a better chance for the Liberals this time. The Liberals are running a high-profile local candidate, Bridget Archer, in an electorate that could buck the national Labor tide.
Victoria: There’s nowhere to hide for the Coalition in Victoria, as Bill Shorten’s home state is going to get redder. The Coalition will lose several seats and may not even get Indi back as Cathy McGowan retires. Casey, Deakin, Flinders, and La Trobe are on the fringes of what the Liberals could lose while Chisholm, Corangamite, and Dunkley are all gone for the Coalition. Watch to see if the Greens can punch further into Melbourne, with Macnamara being a key target.
Western Australia: Relative to other states, WA might be a slight success story for the Liberals. Hasluck will be a problem, but they might actually reain seats like Curtin, Pearce, and Swan. Labor will have a tough ride in Cowan.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 8 April 2019
In our first wave of predictions, we are giving Labor a comfortable majority. You could see this coming from a mile or 1.61 km away, depending on your views of the metric and/or imperial systems.
The Coalition has over 50 Newspoll losses in a row, a number that has only grown in time. (Reference: Reuters) Even with a slight bounce after the budget, the numbers are not there for Scott Morrison and never have been. Morrison’s government appears to have a little over a month left to save itself, or at the very least, “save the furniture.” Kevin Rudd did that for Labor in 2013, sparing the party from what could have been a 95 to 100-seat Coalition rout. They got back into a position where they could come back within two elections. If they must go into opposition, that could be the Coalition’s best, realistic hope.
Had anyone told Labor after the 2013 landslide loss that they could be back in with a comfortable majority in 2019, every last one of them would have signed for that. Right now, that appears to be the trend.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Prediction: Analysis, 20 January 2019
Labor enters 2019, an election year, with a significant lead in the public opinion polls. Depending on who you ask, their lead on a two-party preferred basis is anywhere from about 52 to upwards of 54 percent. On that kind of a swing, Labor would win a working, if not comfortable majority, with a total in excess of 80 seats.
The Coalition, fresh off of a landslide Liberal loss in Victoria, is set to fall backwards in Bill Shorten’s home state. Labor is also putting effort into their Queensland campaign early to knock the LNP out of several key marginals.
Following the redistribution, adding a seat, and a slew of by-elections, the notional House of Representatives entering the election is 73 Coalition, 72 Labor and 6 on the crossbenches. Even a small swing would put Bill Shorten in The Lodge, but as of January, we are not looking at a nailbiter election. The Coalition has been behind in the polls for a solid two years and if they are in the midst of a comeback, it’s news to us.
Australian Federal Election 2019 Special Links
Electoral Websites
Please exercise caution visiting outside websites. Listing a party’s website below is not to be perceived as an endorsement.
Australian Electoral Commission
Federal Political Party Websites (Major Parties)
Liberal Party of Australia | Australian Labor Party | National Party of Australia | Australian Greens | Centre Alliance | Katter’s Australian Party | Pauline Hanson’s One Nation