British Columbia Election 2017 is just two days away, and what we have now is a result on a knife’s edge.
Political observers remember what happened four years ago in British Columbia’s 2013 election. In what was considered a massive upset, the governing Liberals won another majority and actually increased it. The NDP behind Adrian Dix held a significant lead in the opinion polls, with the Liberals leading none in the last month of the campaign. Yet, Christy Clark and the Liberals won the only poll that mattered.
If the opinion polls mean anything at all anymore, the ones in 2017 show a much closer picture. The NDP and Liberals are close province-wide, but the wild card are the Greens. This could be a double-digit election for them in terms of share of the vote. While that may not translate into many seats for the Green Party, it could tip the balance in a number of key seats.
British Columbia Election 2017: NDP Targets
With a redistribution having taken place, there are more than a handful of seats with no incumbent. Several of them will be targets for both the Liberals and NDP. Aside from that, there were a bunch of ridings from 2013 in which the Liberals won by under 1,000 votes. The rise of the Greens complicates this for the NDP in competing for left and center-left voters, but these are still very winnable.
British Columbia Election 2017: Liberal Targets
Last time, we thought there was no way the Liberals would gain seats. They did it, and we have to entertain the possibility again that they could win some of their target seats. Again, the Liberals will have a shot in several new ridings with no incumbent.
British Columbia Election 2017: Green Targets
The Green Party, if they have a sufficient enough surge, could be looking at four seats or more. If it happens, most of them will be on Vancouver Island. That’s where they got their toe hold in 2013, and it’s likely the caucus will grow. All five of our top targets are on the island.
Future elections in Canada will appear on the Canadian election predictions page. We did not predict this one, but others will be.