We might have some wild results coming out of British Columbia federal election 2019.
Generally speaking, British Columbia gives the right-leaning parties what it wants in federal elections. In 1993, when the rest of the country save for Quebec and Alberta went Liberal, BC hitched its proverbial wagon to the Reform Party. In 1997, same thing, and in 2000, hello, Canadian Alliance. During the Stephen Harper wins, British Columbia’s map was mostly blue. It was only in 2015 that the CPC got reduced into third place behind the Liberals and NDP. Of course, by then, a Green Party MP in Elizabeth May had been elected already.
But now, things are getting wacky on a federal level out west. Earlier in 2019, the second-ever Green Party MP, Paul Manly, was elected in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. They would have settled for winning that seat in the fall election, but now they have it already. This has given the Greens hope that they may in fact win multiple British Columbia seats in the 2019 election in addition to these two. At least the NDP can say they held one of their two seats in by-elections.
The Conservatives need to make inroads back into the British Columbia federal electoral picture if they want to win the upcoming election. While the Liberals will try to stop them, they will be running against a deepening vote split on the left. Time will tell how it affects the bottom line across the province.
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British Columbia Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions
Interior British Columbia
| Cariboo—Prince George |
|---|
| Todd Doherty (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola |
| Dan Albas (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo |
| Cathy McLeod (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Kelowna—Lake Country |
| Stephen Fuhr (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| Kootenay—Columbia |
| Wayne Stetski (NDP) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from NDP |
| North Okanagan—Shuswap |
| Mel Arnold (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies |
| Bob Zimmer (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Skeena—Bulkley Valley |
| Nathan Cullen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| South Okanagan—West Kootenay |
| Richard Cannings (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
Vancouver Surrounds
| Abbotsford |
|---|
| Ed Fast (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Burnaby North—Seymour |
| Terry Beech (Lib) |
| Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib |
| Burnaby South |
| Jagmeet Singh (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Chilliwack—Hope |
| Mark Strahl (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Cloverdale—Langley City |
| John Aldag (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam |
| Ron McKinnon (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| Delta |
| Carla Qualtrough (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Fleetwood—Port Kells |
| Ken Hardie (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Langley—Aldergrove |
| Vacant – Previously CPC |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon |
| Jati Sidhu (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| New Westminster—Burnaby |
| Peter Julian (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| North Vancouver |
| Jonathan Wilkinson (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge |
| Dan Ruimy (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| Port Moody—Coquitlam |
| Fin Donnelly (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Richmond Centre |
| Alice Wong (CPC) |
| Prediction: CPC Hold |
| South Surrey—White Rock |
| Gordie Hogg (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| Steveston—Richmond East |
| Joe Peschisolido (Lib) |
| Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib |
| Surrey Centre |
| Randeep Sarai (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Surrey—Newton |
| Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country |
| Pamela Goldsmith-Jones (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Vancouver
| Vancouver Centre |
|---|
| Hedy Fry (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Vancouver East |
| Jenny Kwan (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Vancouver Granville |
| Jody Wilson-Raybould (Ind) |
| Prediction: Ind Hold |
| Vancouver Kingsway |
| Don Davies (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Vancouver Quadra |
| Joyce Murray (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
| Vancouver South |
| Harjit Sajjan (Lib) |
| Prediction: Lib Hold |
Vancouver Island
| Courtenay—Alberni |
|---|
| Gord Johns (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Cowichan—Malahat—Langford |
| Alistair MacGregor (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke |
| Randall Garrison (NDP) |
| Prediction: Grn GAIN from NDP |
| Nanaimo—Ladysmith |
| Paul Manly (Grn) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| North Island—Powell River |
| Rachel Blaney (NDP) |
| Prediction: NDP Hold |
| Saanich—Gulf Islands |
| Elizabeth May (Grn) |
| Prediction: Grn Hold |
| Victoria |
| Murray Rankin (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election |
| Prediction: Grn GAIN from NDP |
October 18, 2019 Final British Columbia Predictions Update
BC forecasted seat total: CPC 16, NDP 11, Lib 10, Grn 4, Ind 1.
British Columbia is all over the place, and everyone will get something out of it. The best-case Conservative scenario is 20, but the Liberals, despite a predicted third-place finish, have a best-case of 17, better than the NDP’s 14.
September 21, 2019 British Columbia Predictions Update
BC forecasted seat total: CPC 18, Lib 10, NDP 8, Grn 5, Ind 1.
No changes from last time, but our high-low ranges are widely variable. While the Liberals are forecasted for 10, they could go as high as 19. The Conservatives can get as few as nine, while the NDP can top out at 14 and drop to six. Having a fourth party in the mix, the Greens, complicates the picture. The Greens are likely to do their damage on Vancouver Island.
July 15, 2019 British Columbia Predictions Update
BC forecasted seat total: CPC 18, Lib 10, NDP 8, Grn 5, Ind 1.
Four parties will vie in British Columbia and all will pull down multiple seats on election night. We will see the most eye-opening vote splits west of Quebec here. Expect Green support to be confined to Vancouver Island, at least in terms of winning seats. Elsewhere in the province, they could harm Liberal and NDP vote totals.