Canada Election 2019 - British Columbia

We might have some wild results coming out of British Columbia federal election 2019.

Generally speaking, British Columbia gives the right-leaning parties what it wants in federal elections. In 1993, when the rest of the country save for Quebec and Alberta went Liberal, BC hitched its proverbial wagon to the Reform Party. In 1997, same thing, and in 2000, hello, Canadian Alliance. During the Stephen Harper wins, British Columbia’s map was mostly blue. It was only in 2015 that the CPC got reduced into third place behind the Liberals and NDP. Of course, by then, a Green Party MP in Elizabeth May had been elected already.

But now, things are getting wacky on a federal level out west. Earlier in 2019, the second-ever Green Party MP, Paul Manly, was elected in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. They would have settled for winning that seat in the fall election, but now they have it already. This has given the Greens hope that they may in fact win multiple British Columbia seats in the 2019 election in addition to these two. At least the NDP can say they held one of their two seats in by-elections.

The Conservatives need to make inroads back into the British Columbia federal electoral picture if they want to win the upcoming election. While the Liberals will try to stop them, they will be running against a deepening vote split on the left. Time will tell how it affects the bottom line across the province.

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British Columbia Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Interior British Columbia

Cariboo—Prince George
Todd Doherty (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola
Dan Albas (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Cathy McLeod (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Kelowna—Lake Country
Stephen Fuhr (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Wayne Stetski (NDP)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap
Mel Arnold (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies
Bob Zimmer (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Nathan Cullen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Richard Cannings (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold

Vancouver Surrounds

Ed Fast (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Burnaby North—Seymour
Terry Beech (Lib)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib
Burnaby South
Jagmeet Singh (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Mark Strahl (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Cloverdale—Langley City
John Aldag (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam
Ron McKinnon (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Carla Qualtrough (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Ken Hardie (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vacant – Previously CPC
Prediction: CPC Hold
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
Jati Sidhu (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
New Westminster—Burnaby
Peter Julian (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
North Vancouver
Jonathan Wilkinson (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
Dan Ruimy (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Port Moody—Coquitlam
Fin Donnelly (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Richmond Centre
Alice Wong (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
South Surrey—White Rock
Gordie Hogg (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Steveston—Richmond East
Joe Peschisolido (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Surrey Centre
Randeep Sarai (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
Pamela Goldsmith-Jones (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold


Vancouver Centre
Hedy Fry (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vancouver East
Jenny Kwan (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Vancouver Granville
Jody Wilson-Raybould (Ind)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Vancouver Kingsway
Don Davies (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Vancouver Quadra
Joyce Murray (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vancouver South
Harjit Sajjan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Vancouver Island

Gord Johns (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Alistair MacGregor (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Randall Garrison (NDP)
Prediction: Grn GAIN from NDP
Paul Manly (Grn)
Prediction: Grn Hold
North Island—Powell River
Rachel Blaney (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Saanich—Gulf Islands
Elizabeth May (Grn)
Prediction: Grn Hold
Murray Rankin (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Grn GAIN from NDP

October 18, 2019 Final British Columbia Predictions Update

BC forecasted seat total: CPC 16, NDP 11, Lib 10, Grn 4, Ind 1.

British Columbia is all over the place, and everyone will get something out of it. The best-case Conservative scenario is 20, but the Liberals, despite a predicted third-place finish, have a best-case of 17, better than the NDP’s 14.

September 21, 2019 British Columbia Predictions Update

BC forecasted seat total: CPC 18, Lib 10, NDP 8, Grn 5, Ind 1.

No changes from last time, but our high-low ranges are widely variable. While the Liberals are forecasted for 10, they could go as high as 19. The Conservatives can get as few as nine, while the NDP can top out at 14 and drop to six. Having a fourth party in the mix, the Greens, complicates the picture. The Greens are likely to do their damage on Vancouver Island.

July 15, 2019 British Columbia Predictions Update

BC forecasted seat total: CPC 18, Lib 10, NDP 8, Grn 5, Ind 1.

Four parties will vie in British Columbia and all will pull down multiple seats on election night. We will see the most eye-opening vote splits west of Quebec here. Expect Green support to be confined to Vancouver Island, at least in terms of winning seats. Elsewhere in the province, they could harm Liberal and NDP vote totals.