Canadian Federal Election 2019 Predictions and Election Results

Canadian Federal Election 2019

Who will win Canadian federal election 2019?

Will it be the incumbent Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who rode into the House of Commons with a commanding majority in 2015?

What about former House speaker Andrew Scheer and his Conservatives, ousted in 2015 after nine years in power but hoping for a rebound?

What is the standing of the New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, trying to pick up disaffected Liberal and Conservative voters and move up in the seat count?

Finally, what impact will we see from minor national parties, like the Bloc Quebecois, Greens, and Maxime Bernier’s new right-wing People’s Party?

338 ridings across Canada will elect a Member of Parliament, and those parties above will be aiming for the magic number of 170. Our coverage of Canadian federal election 2019 will go wall-to-wall: party leaders, seat-by-seat predictions, analysis of the Canadian political landscape, and more. Join us, won’t you?

NAVIGATE CANADA 2019: Election Date | Party Leaders | High-Risk Seats | Overall Results | Seat-by-Seat | Analysis | Special Links

Date of Canadian Federal Election 2019

Canada has fixed election dates, though a prime minister and governor general are still empowered to be able to call the vote at any time. Since nothing got in the way of that, election day will be October 21, 2019. It could have been sooner than this date, but not later.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Party Leaders

Justin Trudeau MP (Liberal, Prime Minister)
Andrew Scheer MP (Conservative, Leader of the Opposition)
Jagmeet Singh MP (New Democratic)
Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois)
Elizabeth May MP (Green)
Maxime Bernier MP (People’s Party)

Canadian Federal Election 2019 High-Risk Seats

In order of closeness, these were the thirty (30) closest seats in the 2015 federal election. This list does not include any seats in which a by-election was held.

Before seeing the below, watch our featured video on the closest ridings from last time.

#1: Elmwood-Transcona, MB
NDP by 61 votes vs. CPC
#2: Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, SK
NDP by 82 votes vs. Lib
#3: Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON
CPC by 86 votes vs. Lib
#4: Edmonton-Mill Woods, AB
Lib by 92 votes vs. CPC
#5: Regina-Lewvan, SK
NDP by 132 votes vs. CPC
#6: Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, QC
BQ by 213 votes vs. Lib
#7: Hastings-Lennox and Addington, ON
Lib by 225 votes vs. CPC
#8: Kitchener-Conestoga, ON
CPC by 251 votes vs. Lib
#9: Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, QC
CPC by 272 votes vs. Lib
#10: Kootenay-Columbia, BC
NDP by 282 votes vs. CPC
#11: Jonquière, QC
NDP by 339 votes vs. Lib
#12: Kenora, ON
Lib by 498 votes vs. NDP
#13: Hochelaga, QC
NDP by 500 votes vs. Lib
#14: Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, QC
NDP by 598 votes vs. Lib
#15: St. John’s East, NL
Lib by 646 votes vs. NDP
#16: Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, QC
NDP by 703 votes vs. Lib
#17: Calgary Centre, AB
Lib by 750 votes vs. CPC
#18: Salaberry-Suroît, QC
NDP by 771 votes vs. Lib
#19: Mirabel, QC
BQ by 837 votes vs. NDP
#20: Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, MB
NDP by 912 votes vs. Lib
#21: Trois-Rivières, QC
NDP by 969 votes vs. Lib
#22: Québec, QC
Lib by 1,000 votes vs. NDP
#23: Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, BC
Lib by 1,038 votes vs. CPC
#24: Parkdale-High Park, ON
Lib by 1,057 votes vs. NDP
#25: Rivière-du-Nord, QC
BQ by 1,080 votes vs. NDP
#26: Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, ON
Lib by 1,093 votes vs. NDP
Please Note: Leona Alleslev crossed the floor to join the CPC in 2018
#27: Richmond Centre, BC
CPC by 1,136 votes vs. Lib
#28: Beloeil-Chambly, QC
NDP by 1,147 votes vs. Lib
#29: Edmonton Centre, AB
Lib by 1,199 votes vs. CPC
#30: Toronto-Danforth, ON
Lib by 1,206 votes vs. NDP

10 Closest Liberal Seats

#1: Edmonton-Mill Woods, AB
Lib by 92 votes vs. CPC
#2: Hastings-Lennox and Addington, ON
Lib by 225 votes vs. CPC
#3: Kenora, ON
Lib by 498 votes vs. NDP
#4: St. John’s East, NL
Lib by 646 votes vs. NDP
#5: Calgary Centre, AB
Lib by 750 votes vs. CPC
#6: Québec, QC
Lib by 1,000 votes vs. NDP
#7: Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, BC
Lib by 1,038 votes vs. CPC
#8: Parkdale-High Park, ON
Lib by 1,057 votes vs. NDP
#9: Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, ON
Lib by 1,093 votes vs. NDP
Please Note: Leona Alleslev crossed the floor to join the CPC in 2018
#10: Edmonton Centre, AB
Lib by 1,199 votes vs. CPC

10 Closest Conservative Seats

#1: Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON
CPC by 86 votes vs. Lib
#2: Kitchener-Conestoga, ON
CPC by 251 votes vs. Lib
#3: Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, QC
CPC by 272 votes vs. Lib
#4: Richmond Centre, BC
CPC by 1,136 votes vs. Lib
#5: Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, BC
CPC by 1,458 votes vs. Lib
#6: Calgary-Confederation, AB
CPC by 1,586 votes vs. Lib
#7: Carleton, ON
CPC by 1,849 votes vs. Lib
#8: Simcoe North, ON
CPC by 2,118 votes vs. Lib
#9: Parry Sound-Muskoka, ON
CPC by 2,269 votes vs. Lib
#10: Chatham-Kent-Leamington, ON
CPC by 2,326 votes vs. Lib

10 Closest NDP Seats

#1: Elmwood-Transcona, MB
NDP by 61 votes vs. CPC
#2: Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, SK
NDP by 82 votes vs. Lib
#3: Regina-Lewvan, SK
NDP by 132 votes vs. CPC
#4: Kootenay-Columbia, BC
NDP by 282 votes vs. CPC
#5: Jonquière, QC
NDP by 339 votes vs. Lib
#6: Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, QC
NDP by 598 votes vs. Lib
#7: Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, QC
NDP by 703 votes vs. Lib
#8: Salaberry-Suroît, QC
NDP by 771 votes vs. Lib
#9: Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, MB
NDP by 912 votes vs. Lib
#10: Trois-Rivières, QC
NDP by 969 votes vs. Lib

5 Closest Bloc Seats

#1: Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, QC
BQ by 213 votes vs. Lib
#2: Mirabel, QC
BQ by 837 votes vs. NDP
#3: Rivière-du-Nord, QC
BQ by 1,080 votes vs. NDP
#4: La Pointe-de-l’Île, QC
BQ by 2,768 votes vs. Lib
#5: Joliette, QC
BQ by 2,880 votes vs. Lib

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Overall Results

2019 Canada Election Results - Seats

Canadian Election Results Analysis

At least we were right about one thing: it’s a Liberal minority government. The scope of that minority, at least, is impressive. Without question, this was not as bad an election as the Liberals feared it might be.

Given that the Liberals overperformed, someone had to underperform; namely, the Conservatives, NDP, and Greens. The Conservatives gained 22 seats from the 2015 election, so this cannot be called a bad election per se, but they wanted more. They are going to be haunted for the next few years by how badly they did in Ontario, barely making any inroads there at all despite an increase in vote share. Most of what they accomplished on the map came in the West, where they did fine in Manitoba, swept Saskatchewan, almost swept Alberta, and made strong gains in British Columbia. The East was much less forgiving, and from Ontario through Newfoundland, they only had a net gain of a handful.

There will never be any way to prove this without interviewing scores of voters, but strategic votes are a probable cause of the NDP’s failure to launch in 2019. In the closing days of the campaign, their poll numbers crept up, with some pundits giving them upwards of 40 seats. Ourselves, we thought 32 was a reasonable estimate. They got 24, also disappointing in Ontario. It could be that potential NDP voters bailed for the Liberals in key seats to keep the Conservatives from winning. If this was their objective, it worked. The CPC lost a number of close races in the East to the Liberals, and could have been aided by last-minute switches of people the polls suggested may have voted NDP otherwise. This could also explain their paltry performance in Atlantic Canada, taking just one seat, but costing the Conservatives several.

As for the Greens, Fredericton was a bright spot, but they failed to make the British Columbia breakthrough they expected. Elizabeth May and Paul Manly held their seats, but top targets like Victoria were lost. British Columbia is one place where the NDP did well, though there were a few surprises, like former NDP stalwart MP Svend Robinson failing in his comeback bid in Burnaby.

Speaking of British Columbia, Jody Wilson-Raybould’s political career will live to see another parliament; her victory a large middle finger towards the Liberal Party. Her friend Jane Philpott was not so lucky, losing in Markham-Stouffville.

The Popular Vote

The Conservatives, believe it or not, won Canada’s popular vote by over 200,000, or 1.3 percent over the Liberals. This will be of cold comfort to the CPC, however, as they ran up the score in the West and lost a number of close races in the East.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Seat-By-Seat

The province or territory you want to see has its own page! Click on the link below to jump to the House of Commons predictions where you want to look.

2019 Canadian Federal Election in Alberta 2019 Canadian Federal Election in British Columbia 2019 Canadian Federal Election in Manitoba
2019 Canadian Federal Election in New Brunswick 2019 Canadian Federal Election in Newfoundland and Labrador 2019 Canadian Federal Election in Nova Scotia
2019 Canadian Federal Election in Ontario 2019 Canadian Federal Election in Prince Edward Island 2019 Canadian Federal Election in Quebec
2019 Canadian Federal Election in Saskatchewan 2019 Canadian Federal Election in the Territories

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Analysis: October 18, 2019

This election turned on a dime after the federal debates, in which we saw the Bloc Quebecois surge, the NDP recover some of what looked like heavy losses, and the Conservatives holding their own. What we are left with is an essentially tied election.

There is a near certainty now that the Liberals will lose their majority because of what will happen in Quebec. Should the Bloc wave (which a month ago was not in existence; see below) fizzle, their odds improve, but they are at the moment quite slim. Quebec is not the only issue, as the Liberals could lose some in the Atlantic, are not riding as high in Ontario, and will get creamed in many parts of the West.

At this stage, the only party with a majority path are the Liberals, and in their best-case scenario, they break even. Our current projection has them losing over 50 seats from the 2015 election, which needless to say is a substantial hit. In a realistic sense, a loss of 20-30 seats minimum seems probable. On the other end, the Conservatives will gain at least a handful but will meet the Liberals in the middle, both far short of a majority. The Conservatives will not win a majority but could finish first — let’s face it, it would not take much of a wiggle in the polls to produce that result. This would make for interesting times in Ottawa: do the parties on the left band together to keep Andrew Scheer out of 24 Sussex? Do they still work with Justin Trudeau despite how they blasted him through the campaign and the SNC-Lavalin scandal? We will soon learn what bedfellows are made in Canadian politics. Regardless, if you have a first-place party 30 to 40 seats shy of a majority, the government is not likely to last long. Chances are we will be firing up the election pages again in 2020 or 2021 should this play out the way we expect.

The NDP found a way to recover from what would have been a recent low. Quebec is still a lost cause but Ontario and British Columbia will give them some hope.

Elizabeth May’s Green caucus will grow, but perhaps not to five like we thought at the start. Four is our guess, but it could be no more than three, and it won’t be more than five. The recovery of the NDP has stunted their growth.

Maxime Bernier would be the only People’s Party MP if he wins, which is not a slam dunk despite his political longevity in Beauce. He should win, but don’t bet your house on it.

We now think Jody Wilson-Raybould squeaks it out while Jane Philpott loses. Philpott’s seat could go to either the Liberals or Conservatives, if the latter comes up the middle.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Analysis: September 21, 2019

Ontario is a definite problem for the Conservatives, who have struggled to gain ground in the province. Should they lose this election, look no further than Canada’s largest subdivision. Our current forecast has the Liberals coming back with 68 seats there, down some but not nearly enough to do serious damage. The Conservatives would have just 41. As for the NDP, they will win at least eight seats there with a forecast of 11. Justin Trudeau’s “blackface” troubles could cost him some votes to the NDP in 905 ridings with high minority populations, with native son Jagmeet Singh taking Trudeau to task.1

As for that Trudeau scandal, there is no evidence yet that it has caused a strong shift in the electorate as a whole. The Liberal outlook remains much better than that for the Conservatives. While the CPC will wipe out much of the remaining Liberal red from the West (with the possible exception of British Columbia), the Liberals will take advantage of a weak NDP in Quebec to shore up its totals. We will see a few gains here and there for the Bloc Quebecois, though nothing substantial like a wave. The Conservatives may see some benefits in Quebec as well, but again, on the minimal side in terms of gains. Maxime Bernier is no guarantee to hold Beauce for the People’s Party, though he’s hard to bet against in that area.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Analysis: July 15, 2019

We have made our first seat predictions, in which we have the Liberals just short of an overall majority. This puts us at odds with some other prognosticators who have their own seat models. Those models show what is essentially a tied election with the Conservatives and Liberals even or near-even in seats, deep into minority government territory.

Models are nice and have their place, but when it came time for us to plug in numbers and make our first round of predictions, we did not come up with what we expected. There are a few things we believe to be true right now that led us to this prediction, which is more robust for the Liberals than we expected:

  • The Ford government in Ontario is hurting the Conservatives on a federal level. Were the Ontario poll numbers what they were a few months ago, it’s possible we would be forecasting the Conservatives in first place.
  • The NDP is going to suffer heavy losses in Quebec, and many of those seats will go to the Liberals. We gave them one Quebec seat in this first round, but it could well be zero as they are polling terribly in La belle province. Long gone are the days of Jack Layton and the Orange Crush.
  • We will see the Conservatives make up some ground in the Atlantic, but not much. Most of it will come in New Brunswick, which was quite blue prior to the 2015 election. Any seats outside New Brunswick would be a bonus.
  • Look for the Conservatives to knock the Liberals out of Alberta, all three of them, and maybe cut into Liberal and NDP seats in Manitoba and/or Saskatchewan.
    Yes, Ralph Goodale is safe.

So, while the numbers are there on a federal level to suggest this is a dead heat, because of Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals are in a better position than they had been earlier. Conservative polling needs to get better in Ontario for us to consider moving this election back in their direction.

It is not that the NDP will be a non-factor per se, but they are going to lose a hefty portion of their caucus. Most will be due to a collapse in Quebec, but another contributing factor will be the rise of the Greens in British Columbia. Elizabeth May’s party could win several more seats on Vancouver Island and play spoiler elsewhere on the mainland.

A wild card in Quebec is the Bloc Quebecois. We believe they will regain official party status in the next parliament. Their vote is up, but how many more seats will that net them? Anything more than 15 seats for the Bloc and they will most likely be cutting into Liberal gains there.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Analysis: June 16, 2019

We are pleased to launch our Canada Election 2019 pages well in advance of what could be an unpredictable election in the Great White North. Not so unpredictable that we won’t try, but volatile might also be another good word to use.

The first-term Liberal government is hurting. Only once since the First World War has a Liberal government been defeated following a single term in office. That was in 1984, when the Liberals, who governed with only a brief interruption since 1963, were taken down by Brian Mulroney. After defeating Joe Clark’s PCs in 1980 to return to office, the Liberals went right back out in 1984.

This situation is not analogous to that one. The Liberals of the modern day just got back into power after almost a decade in opposition, at one point dropping into third place in the House of Commons. For them to lose this election after a long spell out of government would be unprecedented.

Nevertheless, it might happen. As of this writing, there are five months to go until the federal election, but Trudeau has had missteps, and then SNC-Lavalin, a scandal that left his government unsettled for weeks and months. The shock from that has subsided, but the damage may be done. More than a handful of opinion polls over the last few months put the Conservatives in position, if nothing else, to reduce the Liberals into a minority situation, if not return to government themselves.

Without question, the CPC took a blasting in 2015, falling from a majority to just under 100 seats in the House of Commons. It would take a huge effort to get them back into a majority, but the Liberals need only lose 15 seats from their 2015 total to drop into a minority. There are more than 15 seats out there that the Liberals could conceivably lose. For example, it is unlikely they will run the table in Atlantic Canada again, with Conservative blue poking back through in New Brunswick and perhaps Nova Scotia if they’re lucky. What few Liberal successes there were in Alberta could be wiped out, British Columbia might see a Conservative rebound, and Manitoba could get a little bluer as well. A rise for the Greens in BC, if the Nanaimo-Ladysmith phenomenon plays out elsewhere, might help split the vote on the left, further benefitting the Conservatives.

As all of them are, this election will be won or lost in Ontario. The Liberals won Ontario’s popular vote by almost 10 points last time. If the Conservatives are ahead there, and some polls say they are, they will flip enough seats there alone to force a minority government. We must approach the 2019 Canadian election, at the start, as though it could result in a significant loss of seats for the Liberals, if not a possible defeat for the government. Even we are intrigued to see our first national seat prediction coming soon.

Canadian Federal Election 2019 Special Links

Please exercise caution in visiting external links.

The Main Event: Elections Canada

Various Major Parties:

Liberal Party of Canada
Conservative Party of Canada
New Democratic Party of Canada
Green Party of Canada
Bloc Québécois
People’s Party of Canada

References

1: “In Brampton, with its five crucial seats, blackface becomes an unexpected twist in tight battle” (by Brian Platt, National Post website, published 20 September 2019, accessed 21 September 2019)

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