Thanks to Colorado Primary 2020, we had one of the shockers of the election cycle so far with the defeat of incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R).
He fell in the 3rd District, which he first won in 2010, to political newcomer Lauren Boebert. With an expected 85 percent of the vote counted, Boebert led Tipton by a 54 to 46 margin. The race was called by Cook Political editor Dave Wasserman at 7:47pm local time:
I've seen enough: Lauren Boebert (R) has defeated Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the #CO03 primary. Tipton becomes the fifth House incumbent to lose renomination in 2020.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 1, 2020
Boebert, a young restaurateur, will face Diane Mitsch Bush (D) in the general election; Bush was the Democratic nominee in 2018. She lost to Tipton by eight points.
Lauren Boebert was especially strong in the counties of the district bordering Utah. Mesa County, anchored by Grand Junction, helped deliver the knockout blow.
Fast Analysis of CO-03 Primary
This one was a stunner; Tipton was a five-term representative who despite going dark during primary season still had the endorsement of Donald Trump. However, Boebert is very pro-Trump herself, and strongly touts her conservative bona fides. No doubt Trump will back her now, but is this seat in play?
It’s too soon to say for sure, but we tend to think that it will at least be on Democratic radars. Against an incumbent in 2018, Bush had the race in the single-digits. This is now an open seat, Boebert is not especially well-funded at this point, and there is no indication the Democrats are going to do any worse in the House picture in 2020. Throw in the fact that Joe Biden looks solid in Colorado and there is a realistic chance the Senate seat will flip and this race will have new eyes looking at it.
This is a red-leaning seat and like Virginia’s 5th District, which also tossed a GOP incumbent, the Republican is the favorite. Not by much, though, as the GOP in both cases nominated a candidate more conservative than the ousted incumbent in a somewhat competitive seat. This may present itself as an opportunity for Democrats looking to expand the House map. Be sure to check our Colorado House race page for the update.
Other Colorado Primary 2020 Results
Former governor John Hickenlooper won the Democratic primary for Senate without much difficulty on June 30. By an approximate 60 to 40 margin, he defeated Andrew Romanoff, progressive former state House speaker. Hickenlooper carried almost every county in the state, including Denver, the city and county of which he used to be mayor.
Next up for Hickenlooper is Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who ran unopposed in his primary. Electionarium currently favors Hickenlooper to gain the seat for the Democrats.
Aside from Colorado Primary 2020: Other State Results
The Utah primaries are ongoing, with the big race as the GOP primary for governor. It is expected to be a tight battle between Jon Huntsman and Spencer Cox for the right to advance to a lay-up general election victory.
The Oklahoma-05 House race has its Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendra Horn, but the GOP side is heading to a runoff. At this time, it appears the August runoff will be between Terry Neese and Stephanie Bice. Neese was the clear first-place finisher while Bice had to fight off David Hill for second place. Electionarium rates Horn as a weak lean favorite, however this is a red district under normal circumstances and she is in electoral danger.
Abby Broyles has won the Democratic primary for Senate in Oklahoma and will face Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) in November. We have Inhofe as very safe at this time.