The Nutmeg State is about to get in on legislative election action with the Connecticut Senate 27th District special election on March 2, 2021.
Democrats are looking for a hold in a state legislature where they already have so much, but the political geography favors them.
27th District Special Election 2021: Key Facts
PREVIOUSLY HELD BY: Carlo Leone (D). He was first elected to the Legislature in 2002 as a state representative and was elected to the Senate in 2011. Leone resigned in January to take up a position within the Connecticut Department of Transportation as a senior adviser. (Read more: CT Post)
LOCATION: This is a southwestern Connecticut seat in the densely-populated I-95 corridor between Greenwich and New Haven. Specifically, this seat takes in parts of Stamford (including downtown) and Darien (coastal area).
POLITICAL COMPOSITION: This is a Democratic seat on many different levels. For starters, Leone got about 64 percent of the vote in his re-election run in 2020. Stamford, and this district includes its urban (read: bluer) areas, went to Leone with 66 percent. Joe Biden took 68 percent of the vote in Stamford as a whole. Jim Himes, the area’s Democratic congressman, got 67 percent in Stamford. Darien was not a whole lot better for the GOP on the presidential level, with Biden taking 61 percent there, however, Eva Maldonado (R) did carry Darien’s portion of the district against Leone in 2020, but it’s a fraction of the size of Stamford’s vote.
WHO’S RUNNING: Pat Billie Miller (D-Stamford), Joshua Esses (R-Stamford), and Brian Merlen (I-Stamford). Miller is a state representative for the 145th District, entirely located within Stamford, who was first elected to the House in 2008. Esses is a bankruptcy litigation attorney making his first run for elective office. Merlen is running for the third time but his second with the Independent Party, having also run for HD-148 in 2016 as well as the 4th Congressional District in 2020.
About the Connecticut Senate
Not too long ago, as recently as 2018, the Democrats and Republicans had equal seats in the Senate with 18. However, between the 2018 and 2020 elections, that balance melted away. Democrats held a 24-12 supermajority in the Senate prior to Leone’s resignation and would get it back if the Democrats win.
Connecticut Senate 27th District Special Election 2021: Analysis
We consider this as a Safe Democratic seat. Sure, a Republican carried the Darien portion of the 27th District, but the Stamford portion is solid blue and has a lot more people in it.
Miller is an established elected official who has won in that solid blue segment of Stamford numerous times. She will be difficult to beat on election day.
For more on 2021’s state legislative special elections, visit our page.