How does Electionarium come up with its election race ratings? Updated Summer 2021.
We have a four-tier scale that differs from some other politically-themed websites. None of these tiers is “tossup,” because we do not believe in those. Why? On election day, when the votes are counted, it’s not going to be a tossup. This means our predictions today are a full representation of how we think a particular election will look. As for what the scale says, the best way to explain this is to first show you what the scale is.
You may also benefit from how we define each of these rating tiers:
Definitions of Electionarium USA Election Race Ratings
Lean (previously known as Weak Lean): The seat is in play and we have a low degree of confidence. Rough equivalent of other ratings pundits’ “lean” or “tilt.” You could say the party we predict has about a 50 to 60 percent chance of winning.
Likely (previously known as Strong Lean): This seat is not really in play at the moment but it is not safe, either. It is part of what we may consider the extended playing field of seats that are at risk in a wave election. Rough equivalent of what others may call “likely.” Let’s say this is about a 60 to 75 percent chance of victory.
Safe: Just what it sounds like; the party holding the seat is at low risk of losing it. Other websites may call this “solid.” It’s maybe a 75 to 90 percent shot at winning.
Very Safe: A new level we have created to designate those seats that are so safe, the mere thought of them being competitive is laughable. An example of this would be Nancy Pelosi’s district in San Francisco for the Democrats. We would consider this over a 90 percent chance at victory.
Where Do These Race Ratings Apply?
For now, these only apply to United States election predictions; for example, the presidential and US Senate elections. Other nations outside of America tend to have multi-party democratic systems, and when rating on tiers, that gets complicated. You are going to see us do straight-up picks in places like Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom.