Virginia& New Jersey elect governors on November 2

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Elections Briefing, Feb. 25, 2021: Trump 2024? Biden 2024? NL Election Debacle

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Elections Briefing 2-25-21 Trump Biden Newfoundland

What unofficial Electionarium rule are we about to mow down? Here’s the Elections Briefing for Thursday, February 25.

US Election News

Would Trump Win the 2024 GOP Nomination? We are breaking our own unwritten rule of not talking about the 2024 right now, but for a paragraph in the Election Briefing, we will. Anyway, Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah thinks so, if the former president runs again.1 For what it’s worth, the editorial staff of Electionarium agrees with him. The Republican Party of the day is committed to Trump and Trumpism. At least two-thirds of the party are strict adherents. Those who are not, like Romney and Adam Kinzinger, are considered pariahs. While it’s certain Trump would be the 2024 GOP nominee if he runs, his most vocal disciples with 2024 ambitions, like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, have a conflict: they need to remain loyally by Trump’s side while hoping he doesn’t run again. If he does, what are they going to say if they run, too? We love you but go away?

Biden Hands Over Campaign to DNC: President Joe Biden’s campaign infrastructure is being rolled under the supervision of the Democratic National Committee, according to reports. We hate to break our own rule again for the second time in two paragraphs, but The Seattle Times mentions a re-election committee for Biden.2 One has to ask themselves if he is going to run again at 81 years old. Handing over the reins to the DNC is a necessary step for preparing the Democrats for the upcoming midterms, but from our perspective, it would be premature to assume Biden will run. It would likewise be premature to suggest Trump will as well. We’ll get back to you on that in 2023.

NYC Experimenting in Ranked Choice Voting: The New York City Council special election in the 31st District (forming part of Queens) was the city’s first foray into ranked-choice voting. It’s not a full Alternative Vote like in Australia as New Yorkers are limited to a maximum of five preferences. As of now, primary vote tabulation in the nine-candidate race from Tuesday is complete, but it will be another two weeks until preferences are distributed and lesser-performing candidates are eliminated.3 Australia has gotten this down to a science with rapid counting, so New York City (and any localities using ranked-choice voting) will need to fine-tune and perfect their systems.

International Election News

Newfoundland and Labrador Election Mess: The Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador was supposed to have had its provincial election on Saturday, February 13. It was postponed just days before due to a spike in COVID-19 cases on the island. Now, even though there’s been an extended campaign, the CBC reports that the province could be heading for a low point in terms of voter turnout at a projected 51 percent, citing official data.4 This is an election that the Liberals were a sure bet to win, and win big. One has to ask the obvious question about lower turnout and an early election that got scrubbed at the last minute because of a COVID outbreak: could this actually backfire against the Liberals? Polling suggests the Liberals are still ahead substantially, but they’ve taken somewhat of a hit from their January peak.

Turkish Ruling Party in Control: Recent opinion polling in Turkey shows that there is little chance at present of the governing Justice and Development Party of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan losing the next election. His party and coalition partner would gain an absolute majority of the vote were an election held today, as reported in the Daily Sabah.5 Erdoğan has been either Turkey’s prime minister or president since 2003.

Featured Election

2021 Virginia Governor Race

The Virginia governor’s race happens on November 2. Because of Virginia’s unique and specific term limits, we know the commonwealth will be electing a new governor. At this point, the race is a likely Democratic hold. You can track the predictions along with us here.

Election Result Briefs

Texas HD-68 Special Runoff: David Spiller (R) defeats Craig Carter in runoff, 63 percent to 37 percent.

NYC Council 31st Special Election: Selvena N. Brooks-Powers finishes first on primary votes ahead of Pesach Osina. Preferences will be distributed starting on March 10.

Evanston, IL Mayoral Election: Daniel Bliss elected mayor with 73 percent of the vote.

Election Calendar

15 days until the (rescheduled) Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election.
16 days until the Western Australia state election.
23 days until the special “jungle primaries” in LA-02 and LA-05.
26 days until the 2021 Israeli election.

Today’s Further Reading

  1. Rebecca Shabad, “Romney says Trump would win GOP nomination ‘in a landslide’ in 2024,” NBC News, 24 February 2021.
  2. Michael Scherer, “Biden shifts his operation to DNC ahead of 2022 midterm elections,” The Washington Post via The Seattle Times, 23 February 2021.
  3. Gloria Pazmino, “Ranked-Choice Count Likely With No Clear Winner in Queens City Council Special Election,” NY1, 24 February 2021.
  4. CBC News, “N.L. on track for record-low 51 per cent voter turnout: Elections NL data,” CBC News, 24 February 2021.
  5. Daily Sabah, “AK Party-led People’s Alliance ahead in Turkish elections: survey,” Daily Sabah, 24 February 2021.

Now For Your Commentary

United States Elections

2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Predictions

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