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Elections Briefing, March 11, 2021: Rubio, Green Bay, Israel

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Elections Briefing 3-11-21 Rubio Green Bay Israel

One US senator might be okay with his poll numbers while a prime minister is getting more comfortable with his in Thursday’s Briefing.

US Election News

Marco Rubio’s Approval Rating Under 50%

A Mason-Dixon poll reported yesterday that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) may have some work to do if he wants to get a third term. While it was revealed that he leads elusive candidate “Generic Democrat,” his job approval and re-elect numbers are both below 50 percent.1 The political rule of thumb is that an incumbent beneath 50 percent of the vote is in danger.

However, no Democrat has yet emerged against Rubio and even when they do, this is a state trending away from them, even if just a little. Democrats have not won a big statewide race in Florida in years and it’s getting to become a bit of a white-whale issue for them. While Rubio’s numbers are just okay, he will take them and hope Florida remains shaded more to the red side in 2022, a Democratic midterm year.

Arizona’s Push Against Non-Profit Election Funding

Arizona has been busy lately trying to audit the 2020 presidential election, but they are not done with taking up election-related matters. Their new legislative objective is to stop non-profit entities from being able to supply funding to elections boards. These organizations, which tend to be backed by big-money sources, provide the cash in hopes of bolstering departments which may be underfunded or understaffed, and to help (for example) voter registration efforts.2

Republicans in Arizona put the bill forward in the name of protecting the elections process. Their contention is that these outside groups and their money could play a role in manipulating the elections.

Green Bay Mayor Facing Resignation Calls

This one loops back around with the story above; you’ll see in a minute.

Eric Genrich, Democratic mayor of Green Bay, Wisconsin, was recently accused by a conservative blog of taking grant money from non-profit groups and in turn allowing Democrats an inside hand in the 2020 elections process there. This alleged mishandling of ballots has generated calls by Republican legislators in the state for Genrich to resign. The mayor has denied the allegations against him.3

Republicans in Arizona no doubt see what is happening in Wisconsin; even if the claims are unfounded, they are making it known they want to stop all outside interference in their elections, particularly from groups they believe are to the left.


International Election News

Netanyahu’s Likud Improves Standing in Latest Polls

It may not be over yet for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his bid for re-election. Whereas it appeared Likud and its right-leaning bloc would not win enough seats previously, a new Channel 13 poll held that Likud ticked up to a projected 29 seats. A number of polls had 27 for Netanyahu’s team.4

Perhaps just as notable are that the New Hope party is forecasted for just nine seats and Yesh Atid, Likud’s main rival, are also up. This anti-Netanyahu center-right party was previously on track for the low-to-mid teens in seats. Those seats would be crucial to any non-Likud bloc joining Yair Lapid in his quest to become prime minister and do what Benny Gantz could not in three elections.

Madrid Heading to the Polls?

This is interesting timing; a few days ago on Map Monday, we showed you a map of the autonomous communities of Spain and who governed them. That might be changing soon in Madrid, as the governing center-right Popular Party (PP) has withdrawn from its coalition with Ciudadanos (Citizens or Cs) and wants to have a snap election. It is believed that the Madrid Popular Party pulled the plug on this agreement because in Murcia, Citizens pulled the plug on them and sought to join a coalition with the Socialists (PSOE).5

This is a lot to take in, but what we do know is that the PP’s 30-year hold on Madrid is in trouble, and unless Cs goes away, the PP may need their help if they wish to win the national government again.


Election Calendar

Tomorrow would be the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election; rescheduled again to March 25.
2 days until the Western Australia state election.
9 days until the LA-02 and LA-05 primaries.

Today’s Further Reading

  1. Scott Powers, “Poll shows support, but vulnerability for Marco Rubio,” Florida Politics, 10 March 2021.
  2. Ben Giles, “Arizona GOP Lawmakers Aim To Stop Private Funds For Elections,” NPR, 10 March 2021.
  3. Scott Bauer, Associated Press, “Wisconsin Republicans ask mayor to quit over election report,” 104.5 WOKV, 9 March 2021.
  4. Raoul Wootliff, “Likud, Yesh Atid see boost in latest poll, New Hope plunges to under 10 seats,” The Times of Israel, 10 March 2021.
  5. Joseph Wilson, Associated Press, “Madrid’s anti-lockdown champion shaken after gov’t collapse,” Star Tribune, 10 March 2021.

Now For Your Commentary

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