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Elections Briefing, March 24, 2021: #MOSen, #ALSen, #Israelex4

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Elections Briefing 3-24-21 MOSen ALSen Israel

Two 2022 Senate races are getting underway now, and we dig into what we already know about the Israeli election results in the Wednesday Briefing.

US Election News

Missouri Ex-Governor to Run for Open Senate Seat

Eric Greitens, who was briefly the 56th Governor of Missouri from 2017 to 2018, has announced he will run for Senate.1 Roy Blunt (R), first elected in 2010 after over a decade in the House, is stepping down following the end of his second term in 2022. Republicans will look to hold this seat, but is this the right venue for Greitens’ comeback attempt?

The former governor resigned in 2018 after coming under criminal investigation for blackmail. Had he not resigned, it was possible he would have been impeached. The charges were eventually dropped and Greitens was cleared, but one wonders how much lingering baggage there will be as he attempts to mount a 2022 Senate run. There will be no shortage of Republican candidates in Missouri should they wish to run, so at a minimum, he will have a primary fight.

Boston Has First Mayor of Color

Yesterday, Marty Walsh (D-MA) became the Secretary of Labor under Joe Biden. He resigned from the Boston mayorship on Monday after seven years, making Kim Janey, president of the City Council, as acting mayor. She will be formally sworn into office today. A Democrat, Janey will become Boston’s first female and first person of color mayor.2

Congressman to Run for Alabama Senate Seat

Missouri is not the only state with an open Republican Senate seat. Richard Shelby (R) is calling it quits in 2022 after a long political career, opening the door to a GOP free-for-all in next year’s primary. Rep. Mo Brooks (R), a staunch ally of Donald Trump, was the second major candidate to get into the running this week following former US Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard.3 The winner of that upcoming GOP primary will have a heavy advantage going into the 2022 midterm election. As we have learned, not every Alabama Republican is electable in a Senate race, but most are.

International Election News

2021 Israeli Election Results

So far, much of what we have is exit polling, but no surprise, we are looking at more potential deadlock. Is there a way out for either bloc based on the exit polls? We think yes.

On the above-referenced exit poll, Netanyahu’s right bloc would come up with 54 and the anti-Netanyahu parties, led by Yesh Atid, are sitting at 59. 61 is required for a majority, but it comes down to Yamina. Whichever side Yamina picks is going to have a majority, assuming all the other parties can hold it together. This is already including Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope among the anti-Netanyahu ranks.

Should this result in more instability, one has to wonder how much more the Israeli political system can withstand before there are calls for reform. This is the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to multi-party democracy, that a result too fragmented over and over can result in political crisis. However, organizations like Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope might be more apt to work with Likud post-Netanyahu, whenever that is.

Western Australia Liberals Seeking to Regroup After Election Disaster

The WA Liberals had a very bad time during this month’s state election, perhaps the most lopsided defeat for a major party in Australian history. Things have gotten so bad that they are now primed to enter talks to form a coalition with the WA Nationals.4 This particular branch of the Nationals is not aligned with the Liberals, unlike everywhere else in Australia, but working together will shore up dismal numbers for both.

Mia Davies will become the Leader of the Opposition as the Nats have four seats and the Liberals, traditionally one of the parties of government in the state, is down to just two. If the Nationals go along with the plan – and they have no good reason not to – the opposition will be united, what little of it there is.

Election Calendar

Thursday is the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election.
19 days until the Yukon territorial election.
31 days until the Louisiana-02 special runoff.

Today’s Further Reading

  1. Associated Press, “Disgraced ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens announces Senate run,” New York Post, 23 March 2021.
  2. Christopher Gavin, “Kim Janey becomes Boston’s acting mayor, makes history as first Black person, woman to hold the office,”, 22 March 2021.
  3. Associated Press, “GOP firebrand and Trump supporter Rep. Mo Brooks enters Alabama Senate race,” NBC News, 22 March 2021.
  4. Nicolas Perpitch, “WA Liberals seek formal coalition with Nationals as David Honey named leader after election loss,” ABC News, 23 March 2021.

Now For Your Commentary

Australian Elections

2021 Western Australia Election Results

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