Louisiana Governor Election 2019 Predictions and Results

Louisiana's governor seeks re-election.

Louisiana Governor Election 2019

The Pelican State has two choices in the Louisiana governor election 2019: re-elect or pick someone new.

Only three governorships come up in the 2019 off-year elections, and incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) is the sole Democrat defending a seat. Louisiana is a red state on the federal level, but it hasn’t been that way for long, and, as if we need to mention it, they are not beyond electing Democrats to statewide office. No Democratic governor has been re-elected since Edwin Edwards, though that fact in itself is a bit misleading as before Mike Foster, the state had very few Republican governors, anyway.

Yet, these are not the days of Huey Long and Democratic dominance, or even those of John Breaux and Mary Landrieu. Louisiana is a conservative Southern state, and many of those conservative Democrats have since switched parties. We can still name you at least one moderate Democrat in Louisiana: John Bel Edwards.

Will Edwards win re-election or will Republicans pick up another governorship in the South?

For more on the state legislature elections also occurring in Louisiana in 2019, see our special report.

Other 2019 Gubernatorial Elections: Kentucky | Mississippi

Louisiana Governor Election 2019 Candidates

Declared candidates list updated July 27, 2019

Democrats
John Bel Edwards* (Governor of Louisiana)
Republicans
Ralph Abraham (US Representative, 5th District)
Eddie Rispone (Contractor)
Other
Gary Landrieu (Contractor)

Louisiana Governor Election 2019: Early Look

Louisiana Governor Election Day 2019

Jungle Primary: October 12, 2019
Runoff: November 16, 2019

Louisiana Governor Election 2019 Prediction

Louisiana Governors Race 2019 prediction 7-27-19

Electionarium predicts a Democratic hold (weak lean) as of July 27, 2019.

Louisiana Governor Election 2019 Analysis, January 20, 2019

There has been no opinion polling yet in 2019. The last polls available were candidate-sponsored surveys, each showing that (1) this race is heading for a runoff and (2) Edwards can be re-elected, but it’s not going to be easy. (Links: The Hayride, SurveyUSA)

Edwards breathed a sigh of relief when US Senator John Kennedy announced in December that he would not run for governor. (Link: Washington Post) Kennedy would have been the best Republican challenger he could have drawn, but he’s got 5th District congressman Ralph Abraham instead. Abraham’s district takes in the northeastern part of the state, then swinging down into the Florida parishes and the hometown of Britney Spears, Kentwood.

Abraham lacks the name recognition of Edwards, but this state has entertained bids that were more of a longshot than his.

Louisiana Governor Election 2019 Primary Results, October 12

2019 Louisiana Governor Election - Primary Results

Incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) was the clear first-placer of the primary election, taking over 46 percent of the vote. This was not, however, a victory. Edwards and Eddie Rispone (R) got out of the semifinals and into the main event in mid-November. Neither man got a simple majority of the vote, requiring a runoff (which Louisiana calls the general election).

Edwards came in first in many of the state’s parishes with the Republican vote split. November will be a different story, but Edwards may still be considered the favorite.

When we first started tracking this race in the start of 2019, Ralph Abraham was Edwards’ main challenger. He placed third on primary night, behind Edwards and Eddie Rispone. The latter, Rispone, was an afterthought in January, polling in the single digits. Then, Rispone caught momentum, and before he knew it, Abraham was in a real race for second.

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