Canada Election 2019 - Manitoba

See the seat predictions and results for the Manitoba federal election 2019.

Heading from east to west in Canada, the Prairies are where the Conservatives hope to start racking up seats. Yet, in 2015, the Liberals did a number of Winnipeg, eliminating most of the blue that emerged there during the Harper years. Outside of Winnipeg, however, you will see a lot of orange for Niki Ashton’s large NDP riding, but otherwise, it’s Conservative blue.

How the Liberals do in Winnipeg could be the difference between a majority and a minority, or worse, for Justin Trudeau. There are eight seats in the city, and the Liberals won seven of them in 2015. The eighth, an NDP seat, was one of the Conservatives’ most narrow margins of defeat in the previous election. In 2011, six of the eight seats were Conservative; like any more western city except Vancouver, the Conservatives can do well as they have in the past.

Do the Conservatives make inroads in Winnipeg or can the Liberals preserve their best-ever seat haul in the city? Seat-by-seat predictions are located below, as well as links to the doings in other provinces. Finally, we also have a link below to the Canadian federal overall prediction, in case you were wondering how Manitoba factors into the big picture.

GET AROUND CANADA 2019: MAIN CANADA 2019 PAGE | Alberta | British Columbia | New Brunswick | Newfoundland & Labrador | Nova Scotia | Ontario | Prince Edward Island | Quebec | Saskatchewan | The Territories

Manitoba Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Rural Manitoba

Larry Maguire (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
Niki Ashton (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa
Robert Sopuck (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Candice Bergen (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Ted Falk (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
James Bezan (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold


Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley
Doug Eyolfson (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Daniel Blaikie (NDP)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from NDP
Kildonan—St. Paul
MaryAnn Mihychuk (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
Dan Vandal (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Winnipeg Centre
Robert-Falcon Ouellette (Lib)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib
Winnipeg North
Kevin Lamoureux (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Winnipeg South
Terry Duguid (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre
Jim Carr (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

October 18, 2019 Final Manitoba Predictions Update

MB predicted seat totals: CPC 10, Lib 2, NDP 2.

We are predicting a bad night for the Liberals in Manitoba; Winnipeg specifically, where they will sustain a handful of losses. Their only hope to save face is to hold some of the central Winnipeg seats. Conservatives look like they will pick off a number of seats they had while they were in government.

September 21, 2019 Manitoba Predictions Update

MB predicted seat totals: CPC 8, Lib 5, NDP 1.

The provincial Progressive Conservatives were just re-elected in Manitoba, and the Liberal poll numbers here in general do not look good. Red will not escape Winnipeg on the map unless they pull off the upset in Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, which is possible. The NDP vote in Manitoba is failing, which has endangered Daniel Blaikie despite his household name.

July 15, 2019 Manitoba Predictions Update

MB predicted seat totals: CPC 7, Lib 6, NDP 1.

Winnipeg will remain red but the rest of the province is blue, aside from Churchill. Conservatives will make some inroads into Winnipeg but expect the Liberals to keep six seats. Elmwood-Transcona is in significant danger for the NDP despite the Blaikie name.