New Brunswick Election 2018 Predictions and Results

Is New Brunswick going to turf a first-term government again?

New Brunswick Election 2018

New Brunswick Election 2018 takes place on September 24, 2018, and in Canada’s second provincial election of the year, we could see another change in government.

At least when Ontario voted in June 2018, most political observers agreed earlier that the Liberals would lose to the Progressive Conservatives. There is no such consensus here, though the possibility for a close election exists. Keep in mind also that this is New Brunswick, a province that hasn’t re-elected a government since 2003. Three premiers in a row have gone one-and-done, and Brian Gallant is trying not to become the next.

His Liberal Party came into power in 2014, collecting a thin but workable majority of five seats. Since then, because of resignations, vacancies, an independent speaker, and by-elections, the Liberals enter the campaign with a majority of only one.

49 new members will be elected, but will a new government? On Electionarium we believe in our “No Tossups Ever” pledge, so while our predictions might change here and there, we’ll never cop out. Other Canadian elections we’ve covered can be found here.

NAVIGATE NEW BRUNSWICK ELECTION 2018: NB Party Leaders | Election Results | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat Predictions | Seats to Defend | Analysis

New Brunswick Election 2018 Party Leaders (Major Parties)

Liberal (Lib)
Brian Gallant (Premier, MLA for Shediac Bay-Dieppe)
Progressive Conservative (PC)
Blaine Higgs (Leader of the Opposition, MLA for Quispamsis)
Green (Grn)
David Coon (MLA for Fredericton South)
New Democratic (NDP)
Jennifer McKenzie (running in Saint John Harbour)
People’s Alliance (PA)
Kris Austin (running in Fredericton-Grand Lake)

New Brunswick Election 2018 Results

New Brunswick Election 2018 results - seats

The Progressive Conservatives won 22 seats, while the governing Liberals took 21. For the first time in recent New Brunswick politics, multiple minor-party candidates have been elected. Three each will go to Fredericton for the Green Party and People’s Alliance.

New Brunswick Election 2018 results - votes

The PCs won the most seats, but the Liberals won the most votes.

We are careful not to term this as a “Progressive Conservative minority government,” as technically, it is not one yet. As the sitting premier, Brian Gallant and his Liberal Party have the right to try and form a government first. Now, under most circumstances, there is a clear winner and a defeated premier tenders his or her resignation to the lieutenant governor. Nobody won the election in such a decisive fashion, and Gallant, by convention, can convene the Legislative Assembly and try to govern.

It will be difficult for him to say the least, as he has one fewer seat than the Progressive Conservatives. Even by on-boarding the Green Party, that puts him at 24 seats. Further, someone is electing a speaker, and from who knows where, reducing the voting power of one party by a vote. Gallant would realistically need to get the People’s Alliance on his side in addition to the Green Party to govern in any effective way. Higgs’ path (and math) is easier, but not at all easy.

Gallant has received the permission of the lieutenant governor to continue, but should he fail at passing a throne speech, that does not automatically mean a new election. Jocelyne Roy-Vienneau can ask Blaine Higgs to form a government in hopes that he can command the confidence of the legislature.

At this point, while we know the PCs are the largest party, they are not yet a government.

New Brunswick Election 2018 Prediction (Final): September 22, 2018

New Brunswick Election 2018 prediction 9-22-18

New Brunswick Election 2018 Seat-by-Seat Prediction: September 22, 2018

New Brunswick Election 2018: North

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Denis Landry (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Bathurst West-Beresford
Brian Kenny (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Vacant — Liberal Previously
Predict: Lib Hold
Caraquet
Hédard Albert (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Restigouche-Chaleur
Daniel Guitard (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Restigouche West
Gilles LePage (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Wilfred Roussel (Lib)
Predict: PC GAIN
Tracadie-Sheila
Serge Rousselle (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: Miramichi

Miramichi
Bill Fraser (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Lisa Harris (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
Jake Stewart (PC)
Predict: PC Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: Southeast

Albert
Brian Keirstead (PC) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: PC Hold
Dieppe
Roger Melanson (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Gagetown-Petitcodiac
Ross Wetmore (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Kent North
Bertrand LeBlanc (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Kent South
Benoît Bourque (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Memramcook-Tantramar
Bernard LeBlanc (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Moncton Centre
Chris Collins (Ind)
Predict: Lib GAIN
Moncton East
Monique LeBlanc (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Moncton Northwest
Ernie Steeves (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Moncton South
Cathy Rogers (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Moncton Southwest
Sherry Wilson (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Riverview
Bruce Fitch (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Shediac Bay-Dieppe
Brian Gallant (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé
Victor Boudreau (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: South

Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
Rick Doucet (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Hampton
Gary Crossman (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Kings Centre
Bill Oliver (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Portland-Simonds
Trevor Holder (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Quispamsis
Blaine Higgs (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Rothesay
Ted Flemming (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Saint Croix
John Ames (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Saint John East
Glen Savoie (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Saint John Harbour
Ed Doherty (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PC GAIN
Saint John Lancaster
Dorothy Shephard (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Bruce Northrup (PC)
Predict: PC Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: Central Region-Fredericton

Carleton-York
Carl Urquhart (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Fredericton-Grand Lake
Pam Lynch (PC)
Predict: PA GAIN
Fredericton North
Stephen Horsman (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Fredericton South
David Coon (Grn)
Predict: Grn Hold
Fredericton West-Hanwell
Brian Macdonald (PC) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PC Hold
Fredericton-York
Kirk MacDonald (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
New Maryland-Sunbury
Jeff Carr (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Jody Carr (PC) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PC Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: Upper River Valley-Madawaska

Carleton
Stewart Fairgrieve (PC)
Predict: PC Hold
Carleton-Victoria
Andrew Harvey (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Vacant — PC Previously
Predict: Lib GAIN
Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston
Francine Landry (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Victoria-la-Vallée
Chuck Chiasson (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

New Brunswick Election 2018: Liberal Defense

Please Note: St. John’s East was won by the Liberals in the 2014 election, and would have been #1 on the Liberal defense list. However, the Progressive Conservatives won the seat back in a by-election.

New Brunswick Election 2018 Liberal Defense

Rank Seat 2014 Margin
1 Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou 44
2 Saint John Harbour 71
3 Carleton-Victoria 82
4 Fredericton North 144
5 Saint Croix 194
6 Moncton South 656
7 Miramichi Bay-Neguac 892
8 Victoria-la-Vallée 913
9 Moncton East 922
10 Miramichi 1,231
11 Kent South 1,421
12 Memramcook-Tantramar 1,478
13 Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston 1,490
14 Moncton Centre 1,750
15 Restigouche-Chaleur 1,871
16 Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore 2,537
17 Bathurst West-Beresford 2,589
18 Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West 2,670
19 Caraquet 2,902
20 Campbellton-Dalhousie 2,941
21 Kent North 2,992
22 Restigouche West 3,230
23 Dieppe 3,506
24 Tracadie-Sheila 3,721
25 Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé 3,778
26 Shediac Bay-Dieppe 3,983

New Brunswick Election 2018: Progressive Conservative Defense

New Brunswick Election 2018 PC Defense

Rank Seat 2014 Margin
1 Fredericton-Grand Lake 73
2 Moncton Northwest 239
3 Edmundston-Madawaska Centre 243
4 Moncton Southwest 249
5 Kings Centre 321
6 Saint John Lancaster 457
7 Fredericton West-Hanwell 469
8 Oromocto-Lincoln 473
9 Fredericton-York 521
10 New Maryland-Sunbury 796
11 Saint John East 827
12 Gagetown-Petitcodiac 853
13 Portland-Simonds 877
14 Hampton 883
15 Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin 886
16 Albert 973
17 Rothesay 1,201
18 Carleton-York 1,459
19 Quispamsis 1,494
20 Riverview 1,654
21 Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins 1,967
22 Carleton 2,473

New Brunswick Election 2018 Analysis: September 22, 2018

They say New Brunswick elections are difficult to predict; “they” of course being local pundits who have seen three straight elections in which a government was defeated. Naturally, certain advantages lie with the Liberals this time: they are the present government, and all the federal provincial and Atlantic regional MPs (and premiers) are Liberals, meaning a lot of help on the campaign trail.

Now for the Liberals’ disadvantages, putting aside the fact that the last couple first-term governments went right back out the door. Brian Gallant’s government is not popular, and neither is he. In June, a Dart survey found that only 33 percent approved of his job performance, and in this week’s Nanos poll, he was the preferred premier choice of only a quarter of New Brunswick voters. In part, the Liberals have been knocked for the state of the economy.

Another disadvantage for them is that the polls don’t indicate this is a runaway for them. Why is that bad news? Because much of their vote is going to concentrate in the Francophone-dominated ridings. Liberals have held wide leads among Francophone voters, but the PCs may be in front with Anglophones, the latter of which are a majority of the province.

The complicating factor for the PCs: the People’s Alliance is gaining ground, and looks like it will snatch a Fredericton seat out from under them. Hitting ten percent in the polls will take some votes away from them and may cost them in marginal seats. Liberals might have a problem with the NDP in Saint John Harbour, with the NDP leader running there and potentially splitting the left vote to get the PCs elected.

All of this points to a close election, with a possibility of a minority. Even in the event of 24 Liberal seats, Gallant’s party will stay in charge with likely support from the Green Party. Our current and final forecast is for the slimmest possible Liberal majority at 25 seats.

New Brunswick Election 2018 Analysis: September 2, 2018

We’re starting to inch this a little more into Liberal victory territory. Our best guesses show that the Progressive Conservatives will pick up a seat or two, but the Liberals will offset whatever they lose. Our current prediction is a status quo election.

Now, do we necessarily believe the one poll with a huge Liberal lead? Not unless it’s corroborated by something further. Keep in mind that the PCs could lose the popular vote by a good-sized margin (more than five percent) and not take a net loss in seats. The PCs could also theoretically lose the popular vote and knock the Liberals into a minority government or a narrow loss, because the Liberals figure to get big totals in northern New Brunswick and parts of the Moncton Region. Blaine Higgs, the Tory leader, is not a French speaker and that may harm the PC vote in those areas, some of which the PCs would need if they intend to form government.

New Brunswick Election 2018 Analysis: July 19, 2018

With the election still several months away, we know the Liberals are in the lead. There has been noise in the opinion polling suggesting that the lead is perhaps not as big as once thought. It’s too soon to tell how this will go because the campaign has not, in fact, taken shape yet.

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