Canada Election 2019 - New Brunswick

Are the New Brunswick federal election 2019 results set for a shift back to blue?

During the Stephen Harper era, New Brunswick elected more and more Conservative MPs. When they won a majority in 2011, the Conservatives held —- out of 10 seats in the province. They lost them all in 2015 as Justin Trudeau and the Liberals swept the Atlantic, with several close calls. As Liberal fortunes sink at a slow pace across the country, there is no province in Atlantic Canada more likely to return Conservatives to the House of Commons than New Brunswick.

What are some of the most likely Liberal seats to go, if in fact they lose any? Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, and Fundy-Royal were Conservative for a long time before the Liberal sweep. Those will be top targets, but there may in fact be others. Fredericton and Saint John-Rothesay will also be on the radar for Andrew Scheer’s party.

A year ago, this province elected a diverse minority government in which four parties are represented. With so many colours now on the map at the provincial level, the federal map will follow suit, but maybe only to the extent that there are both red and blue shown.

Your seat-by-seat predictions for New Brunswick are below, and from there, you can also jump to the federal overall prediction or another province’s predictions.

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New Brunswick Federal Election 2019 Seat Predictions

Acadie—Bathurst
Serge Cormier (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Beauséjour
Dominic LeBlanc (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Fredericton
Matt DeCourcey (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Fundy Royal
Alaina Lockhart (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Madawaska—Restigouche
René Arseneault (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Miramichi—Grand Lake
Pat Finnigan (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
New Brunswick Southwest
Karen Ludwig (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Saint John—Rothesay
Wayne Long (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Tobique—Mactaquac
TJ Harvey (Lib) — Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib

October 18, 2019 Final New Brunswick Predictions Update

NB predicted seat totals: CPC 6, Lib 4.

The Conservatives are heading for a bounce-back performance in New Brunswick, taking at least three seats but as many as six of the province’s ten. Just one seat, Acadie-Bathurst, is an NDP possibility. When watching on election night, New Brunswick will be a good early indicator. Should the CPC be on track for six gains, it could be a horse race all the way to the west coast. Should the Liberals overperform, they may be in better shape than expected.

September 21, 2019 New Brunswick Predictions Update

NB predicted seat totals: CPC 6, Lib 4.

If the Liberals take any damage in Atlantic Canada, it is going to be in New Brunswick. This is where Stephen Harper made his breakthrough, and many of those formerly blue seats will come back this time. If nothing else, the Conservatives will gain a minimum of three.

July 15, 2019 New Brunswick Predictions Update

NB predicted seat totals: Lib 5, CPC 5.

It is our assumption that most of the Conservatives’ rise in Atlantic Canada vote share has come here. Several seats, including Tobique-Mactaquac and Fundy-Royal, will be very high on federal CPC target lists. The Liberals are almost assured of losing multiple seats.

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