Here come the New Jersey Governor Election 2017 Predictions and Results, as brought to you by your friends at Electionarium. Who will be the next governor of New Jersey?
If the opinion polls prove true on November 7, then the answer is quite clear.
Two-term Republican governor Chris Christie is leaving office, and in the race to replace him, the Democrats hold a decisive advantage. This is, after all, a blue state. Republicans have not won three-straight gubernatorial elections since the post-WWII Baby Boom. Will 2017 break that streak?
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Final Results
Four years ago, Chris Christie was re-elected with about 60 percent of the vote. The Democrats nearly flipped that margin in 2017 as Phil Murphy won the election. Every county saw a heavy swing in the Democratic direction, even though Kim Guadagno did win eight of them. The New Jersey Turnpike corridor delivered the election for Murphy, in a state that had high dissatisfaction with the Christie administration.
The win was expected, though the final margin was perhaps a bit narrower than what most would have suspected pre-election. Still, the Democrats will take it.
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Final Overall Prediction
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Final Prediction Analysis, November 6
In the Virginia gubernatorial election, we make our final predictions with rationales for both the Republican and Democrat winning. That will not be the case in New Jersey. Phil Murphy will almost certainly be elected governor on Tuesday night; a Kim Guadagno victory for the Republicans would be a shock.
Donald Trump is not going to be the reason by Guadagno loses, assuming all the opinion polls are correct. He might be a factor for some, but Chris Christie’s tenure will be more of one. Further, one imagines Blue New Jersey will correct itself at some point. That’s coming very soon.
Watch out, however: low turnout is expected, and anything can happen when only a couple people show up to the polls.
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: When Do The Polls Open? When Do The Polls Close?
Polls in New Jersey open on election day at 6:00am Eastern. The polls close at 8:00pm Eastern.
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Past Analysis, October 20
It has seemed less imperative to update the New Jersey gubernatorial predictions as opposed to, say, Virginia. The only other 2017 race is much more competitive than this one. New Jersey also tilts bluer than Virginia. What is likely to happen in November is a return to New Jersey’s Democratic roots. This is not to say Republicans cannot win in the Garden State, because one did in 2009 and 2013. However, the last time two different Republicans were elected consecutively in New Jersey was in the 1940s.
Aside from the fact that Kim Guadagno (R) has not led, or come close to leading, in any poll, history is against the GOP in this election. Incumbent Governor Chris Christie’s approval rating remains low — just 16 percent in the latest Fairleigh Dickinson Poll. He is dragging Guadagno down, though with a Democratic-trending electoral climate, it’s not all his fault.
Phil Murphy remains a strong favorite in the closing weeks.
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Past Analysis, September 12
Some opinion polls have the Democratic candidate, Phil Murphy, ahead in the neighborhood of 25 to 30 points. Granted, several of those are dated as of September.
There are a few possible reasons for this. First, again, New Jersey reasserting itself as a blue state. Second, the overall national mood is less favorable to Republicans than during Christie’s 2013 re-election run. Third, Christie leaves office with massive unpopularity. Chris Christie is arguably one of the most unpopular governors in history. Over the summer, his job approval rating fermented in the mid-teens. The Republican candidate, Kim Guadagno, has been Christie’s lieutenant for almost eight years. Guilt by association is a thing in politics.
New Jersey Governor Election 2017: Supporting Links
The New Jersey Department of State, Division of Elections website has all the information a New Jersey voter needs.
We track lots of American elections and make predictions, and you can see them at their page on Electionarium.